Mavericks vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, NBA Picks – Wednesday, November 4

It’s a Texas-sized showdown in the Lone Star State. The San Antonio Spurs host the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, November 4, at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. According to PrizePicks, the Spurs are a 12.5-point favorite against the spread tonight.

Dallas is coming off a phrase you never want to hear uttered about your favorite team: a home loss to the Sacramento Kings. Nonetheless, the team is above .500 as its star player is among the top conversation points in the NBA for his progression at just 19 years old.

Entering Wednesday, San Antonio has rattled off five in a row to once again stake their claim to a top seed in the Western Conference.

Below, we'll break down the matchup for our Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction, including the spread and player projections on PrizePicks.

Make your Mavericks vs. Spurs picks on PrizePicks now!

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Mavericks vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Wednesday, November 4

The Spurs enter Wednesday’s matchup as a 12.5-point favorite over the Mavericks. The Mavs return a 4.54x payout if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Mavericks vs. Spurs matchup. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

Stats used in this article are from Basketball Reference, PBP Stats, NBA.com, or databallr unless stated otherwise.

Some might question my decision to lead this game’s headliner with a 19-year-old forward facing one of the most stiff challenges in his conference, but you could make an argument that Cooper Flagg is a top-10 player in the NBA already.

Among players averaging at least 25 minutes per game, Flagg is 10th in player impact estimate (18.1 PIE) ahead of Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That trio behind him is why it might not stick, but he’s been the driving force behind a Mavericks squad shucking off demons of the Luka Doncic trade to win four of their first seven games.

However, the reigning West champions have worked out the early-season kinks in a mammoth way. San Antonio has won five games in a row, blowing the opponent out by double digits in four of them. 

The shift of Dylan Harper into the starting lineup may have been needed, with the Spurs’ current starting five sporting a +29.3 net rating (NRTG) in 147 possessions together. That’ll do.

As most teams will, the Mavericks have their work cut out for them to compete at Frost Bank Center, where the Spurs are 76-28 since the start of the 2025-26 season. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the Mavs, though, it’s to not write them off.

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Mavericks vs. Spurs Prediction on Over/Under – 11/4/26

Here are the key stats behind our Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction on Wednesday, November 4, including a pick for the over/under on PrizePicks.

• At an identical 2-5 to the over this season, Dallas and San Antonio are two of the eight least popular teams to find in overs this season, according to TeamRankings.
• In a high-paced division, Dallas has an 8-24 record in divisional games since the start of last season.
• Dallas (19th) and San Antonio (17th) both currently rank below the league-average mark in pace. They’re 14th and sixth, respectively, in defensive rating.
• Visitors at Frost Bank Center are averaging just 108.2 PPG this season.

Lock in your Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction on PrizePicks before tipoff.

Mavericks vs. Spurs Picks, Player Stats on PrizePicks – 11/4/26

Our top Mavericks vs. Spurs player picks for Wednesday, November 4, on PrizePicks include Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper.

Mavericks F Cooper Flagg vs. Spurs: 1.5 3-Pointers Made

• Flagg’s 3-point attempts per game have risen from 3.5 last year to 5.0 this year, but he’s only making 0.2 more per game thus far.
• On wide-open 3s, Flagg is making 0.7 of 1.7 attempts (40.0%) per game.
• The sophomore has missed eight straight 3-pointers after making multiple in three straight games.
• San Antonio is allowing the sixth-most 3-point makes per game (3.2) to Flagg’s entrenched small forward spot.

Add Cooper Flagg to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Spurs G Dylan Harper vs. Mavericks: 21.5 Pts + Asts

• Dallas is a league-average matchup to Harper’s current shooting guard spot, allowing the 14th-most points (22.1) and 15th-most assists (4.8) per game to the position, according to FantasyPros.
• Harper is averaging 32.7 minutes per game through seven contests. He’s posted 20.5 points and 5.2 assists per 36 minutes.
• The second-year guard’s 22.5% usage rate and 9.0 potential assists per game are both third-best on the team.

Add Dylan Harper to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Can Cooper Flagg keep the Mavericks above .500 against one of the best in the west, or will the Spurs continue to show they’re the favorites to represent the conference in the NBA Finals?

Don't wait until tipoff — make your Mavericks vs. Spurs picks on PrizePicks now!

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