France and Italy meet in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2 at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, France, with kick-off set for 2:45 p.m. ET. France is favored to win, returning a 1.4x payout on PrizePicks, while the underdog Italy has a 5.88x payout.
French legend Zinedine Zidane will manage his first match at Stade de France and does so 20 years after his infamous meltdown against Italy at the 2006 World Cup. A victory would put France in a strong position to win Group A1, while Italy aims to draw level on points with a win of their own.
Below, we’ll break down our France vs. Italy prediction and picks for Friday afternoon’s UEFA Nations League match, including key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your France vs. Italy prediction and UEFA Nations League picks on PrizePicks now!
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France vs. Italy Prediction, Picks for UEFA Nations League – Friday, October 2
How to watch France vs. Italy: Fox Sports 1
Kick-off Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France
Zidane’s third match in charge of Les Bleus comes against a nation with which the former French midfielder will be inextricably linked for all time.
One of the everlasting images of the 2006 World Cup was Zizou delivering a powerful headbutt into the chest of Italian defender Marco Materazzi, earning a red card that meant the end of his legendary playing career.
Friday can see him extract a bit of revenge after 20 years, and doing so would keep him perfect as the French boss. He oversaw a pair of 1-0 wins against Türkiye and Belgium, although the latter needed a stunning moment of individual brilliance from RW Michael Olise to pick up all 3 points.
The first two matches have seen the French play quite pragmatically, a far cry from the attack-minded side we saw at the World Cup. They’ve managed just 2.39 xG from 30 shots, which is the third-lowest total among the 16 A Group nations, per Sofascore.
It’s worked, though, as they’ve conceded just 1.9 xG, less than all the other 15 nations in the A group. Allowing just 5 shots on target through two matches helps quite a bit.
Despite being well-known over the years for having a tight defensive structure, Italy’s shown anything but a solid defense so far. Their xGA sits only behind the abysmal 9.1 xGA allowed by Serbia, and they were fortunate not to concede multiple goals in their 4-1 win over Türkiye.
That said, the Italians took care of business against a Türkiye side missing its starting GK and midfield captain. After wasting chance after chance against Belgium, the Azzurri pounced on their opponents early with 3 goals in the opening 27 minutes.
Roberto Mancini will be thrilled to see his side being ruthless in front of goal, but he’ll need the defense to quickly shore up if he wants to pull level atop the group.
Given the short turnaround between matches, we could see quite a bit of rotation between the squads. France featured nine different starters against Belgium compared to their opening fixture with Türkiye.
One of those changes was French forward Kylian Mbappé, who will again miss out due to a knee injury. They’ll also still be without William Saliba as the CB recovers from his injury at the World Cup.
France vs. Italy Winner Payouts for UEFA Nations League – Friday, October 2
France enters Friday’s match as home favorites vs. Italy, returning a 1.4x payout if they win, via PrizePicks.
Meanwhile, Italy will hope to get an upset on hostile ground, returning a 5.88x payout with an outright win. PrizePicks has a 4.54x payout for a draw.
Make your France vs. Italy prediction on the winner on PrizePicks!
PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
France vs. Italy Prediction on Winner for UEFA Nations League – 10/2/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our France vs. Italy prediction on the winner for the UEFA Nations League match on Friday, October 2.
- France leads all 16 countries in A Group in passes per match and in xG conceded, as they are both dominating possession and limiting how much they can be hit on the break.
- That presents a serious problem for the Italians, who have been fortunate to allow just 3 goals despite 5.7 xGA. Their first two opponents have also averaged 17 shots, per WhoScored.
- France is swarming opponents when they lose the ball. They rank fourth with 16.5 tackles per match.
- Not only is Italy struggling to prevent scoring chances, but they're having problems defending cleanly. Their 16.5 fouls per match are the most of any Group A nation — 3.5 more than Türkiye.
- Set pieces are a spot where France can truly punish Italy should those fouls occur near the box. The French have numerous free kick takers capable of beating GK Gianluigi Donnarumma.
- It especially becomes a problem for Italy given France leads all Group A nations with 12.5 successful dribbles per match.
Lock in your France vs. Italy prediction on PrizePicks before kick-off.
France vs. Italy Projected Lineups – Friday, October 2
Here are the projected France vs. Italy lineups for today's UEFA Nations League match. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.
France Lineup vs. Italy: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan
- Defense: Jules Koundé, Dayot Upamecano, Maxence Lacroix, Adrien Truffert
- Midfield: Adrian Rabiot, Eduardo Camavinga, Rayan Cherki
- Forwards: Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, Bradley Barcola
Italy Lineup vs. France: Projected 4-3-3
- Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- Defense: Michael Kayode, Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori
- Midfield: Nicolo Barella, Sandro Tonali, Nicolo Fagioli
- Forwards: Nicolo Cambiaghi, Francesco Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito
France vs. Italy Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/2/26
Here are the top France vs. Italy player picks to target on Friday, October 2. Today’s UEFA Nations League picks on PrizePicks are headlined by Michael Olise and Francesco Pio Esposito.
France RW Michael Olise vs. Italy: 3 Shots Assisted
- So far in the Nations League, Olise ranks third in chances created per 90 minutes behind Dembélé and Maghnes Akliouche.
- He’s averaging 2.97 chances created per 90 minutes for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga after leading all players at the World Cup with 15 through balls.
- Italy’s 17 shots allowed per match are the 12th most of the 16 nations so far in Group A play.
- Add in France’s high-pressure defense and high-possession play under Zidane, and this is a spot where Olise might be involved in France taking the most shots they’ve attempted so far in the competition.
Combine France + Michael Olise UEFA Nations League picks on PrizePicks.
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Italy FW Francesco Pio Esposito vs. France: 16.5 Passes Attempted
- Francesco Pio Esposito attempted 22 passes in the win over Türkiye earlier this week in 75 minutes of action. That followed 13 passes against Belgium in 65 minutes.
- Esposito scored a goal and assisted another in the 4-1 win on Monday, and his performance likely earned him a starting striker role against France.
- Belgian starting ST Charles De Ketelaere attempted 19 passes vs. France in 85 minutes played, while Turkish ST Barış Alper Yılmaz attempted just 13 in 88 minutes of action.
- For Inter Milan so far this season, Esposito is averaging 25.4 passes per 90 minutes.
Combine Italy + Francesco Pio Esposito UEFA Nations League picks on PrizePicks.
Make France vs. Italy Picks on PrizePicks
Two rivals face off in Friday’s UEFA Nations League A Group 1 fixture with 3 vital points on the line. Can Zidane exact a bit of revenge and help Les Bleus move further atop the table, or will the Azzurri keep improving under Mancini?
Don’t wait until kick-off – you can make your France vs. Italy picks for DAY’s UEFA Nations League match now on PrizePicks to earn real money.
Just pick your UEFA Nations League players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on match winner, total goals, and both teams to score – now available in 36 states.
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