Both the Florida State Seminoles and North Carolina State Wolfpack have endured unimpressive seasons, but somehow still have bowl eligibility on the line.
The Seminoles (5-5) began the campaign with a shocking home victory over Alabama, but Florida State started ACC play 0-4 before winning two of the last three games.
The Wolfpack (5-5) jumped out to a 3-0 mark before losing five of the next eight games.
Let’s dive into this Florida State vs. NC State prediction for Friday’s tilt, kicking off at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina. Use PrizePicks CFB to win real-money rewards if your picks are right.
Florida State vs. NC State Prediction, Friday CFB Picks
- FSU suffered through a miserable 2-10 season in 2024 before pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the season in Week 1 against Alabama, 31-17.
- Following a pair of blowouts to begin 3-0, things went backwards for head coach Mike Norvell’s team. The Seminoles lost their first four conference contests, extending its ACC skid to nine games.
- FSU broke through with a 42-7 rout of Wake Forest on November 1, its most points in an ACC game since 2023.
- The Seminoles bounced back from a road loss to Clemson with a 34-14 blowout of Virginia Tech last Saturday to improve to 2-5 in ACC play.
- The Wolfpack have posted a solid 4-1 home mark, highlighted by handing Georgia Tech its first conference loss on November 1.
- Following the Georgia Tech upset, N.C. State came off the bye and was pummeled at Miami, 41-7. The Wolfpack’s defense has been eaten alive recently, allowing 106 points in the past four games.
- NC State is 2-4 in ACC play, but has delivered Georgia Tech and Virginia their only losses in the conference.
- These ACC rivals haven’t met since 2022, and the Wolfpack have captured the past three matchups. FSU has not defeated NC State since their 31-13 win in 2019.
Florida State Seminoles
- The Seminoles are ranked 13th in EPA/rush and 37th in EPA/pass, which was in stark contrast to sitting below 115th in each category last season.
- FSU is seeking its first win away from Tallahassee in over two years. The last road victory for the Seminoles came at Pittsburgh on November 4, 2023.
- The 'Noles sit second among ACC teams in points per game at 36.4. Inside league play, Florida State is averaging 27.1 ppg, including 23 points in their last two road games.
NC State Wolfpack
- The Wolfpack defense has been terrible at shutting down opposing air attacks, ranking 125th in EPA/pass.
- NC State’s passing game sits 19th in the country in EPA/pass, third-best among ACC squads.
- Another area the Wolfpack have stepped up in is defensive success in limiting the run. They are eighth in the country in that category, according to GameonPaper.com.
Florida State vs. NC State Prediction, Friday CFB Picks
Below are the top CFB DFS picks for Friday night’s battle between Florida State and NC State.
Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos Projection: 235.5 Passing Yards
- In all three of his road games played, Castellanos has eclipsed 242 passing yards, including 250 at Clemson on November 8.
- Castellanos racked up at least 240 passing yards in six consecutive games before getting held to 189 yards in last Saturday’s 34-14 rout of Virginia Tech.
- In four of the last five games, Castellanos has completed 16 or fewer passes. In each of the past three games, NC State has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete at least 21 passes.
- The last four quarterbacks to face the Wolfpack have topped the 290-yard passing mark.
NC State QB C.J. Bailey Projection: 240.5 Passing Yards
- Bailey is coming off his worst game of the season, throwing for 120 yards in a 41-7 drubbing to Miami last Saturday.
- The sophomore has posted four games of at least 300 passing yards, including three instances in Raleigh.
- In the 48-36 upset of Georgia Tech on November 1, Bailey put up 340 yards, marking his sixth career 300+ yard passing performance.
- FSU has not given up more than 220 passing yards in each of the past four games.
NC State WR Hollywood Smothers Projection: 65.5 Rushing Yards
- Smothers (real name is Daylan) racked up four games of at least 100 rushing yards, including a 164-yard effort against Wake Forest on September 11.
- The entire PrizePicks crew finished with more rushing yards than Smothers did last week at Miami. The Charlotte native had 7 carries for -2 yards, marking his second game of less than 50 rushing yards in 2025.
- FSU’s defense is 84th in the country in EPA/rush, while allowing three running backs to rack up at least 99 yards in ACC play.
- In all four home games, Smothers has gone past 67 rushing yards, including two carries of at least 50 yards.
Florida State and NC State each look to become bowl eligible with a victory tonight in Raleigh.
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