The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers will face off at 8:15 p.m. ET in Week 3 on Thursday, September 24, on Prime Video. The Packers enter Thursday Night Football as a 4.5-point favorite on the spread for their home opener at Lambeau Field, via PrizePicks.
The Packers split their first two games of the 2026 season, landing a Week 2 win with a 20-17 OT win over the New York Jets.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have struggled to start the new campaign, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers by a combined 54-16 margin, but now get QB Michael Penix Jr. back under center.
Below, we'll break down our Falcons vs. Packers prediction against the spread for Thursday Night Football tonight.
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Falcons vs. Packers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Thursday Night Football Tonight
Week 3 begins with an NFC battle between two teams that have gotten off to underwhelming starts in 2026. For the Packers, they have underperformed expectations and look to right the ship in their home opener.
The Falcons have not run a single play in the red zone through two games and are missing key pieces on defense: pass rusher James Pearce Jr. (suspension) and CB A.J. Terrell Jr. (IR).
The two teams last met in 2023, when the Falcons topped the Packers 25-24 in a game where Green Bay was a 3-point favorite. Falcons K Younghoe Koo kicked a game-winning 25-yard field goal with 57 seconds left to lift the Falcons to victory.
The Falcons have covered the spread in four of the last six games vs. the Packers. Meanwhile, the Packers are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games overall.
Green Bay will be without WR Jayden Reed, who has been ruled out due to a serious neck injury suffered last week, which should leave more targets for Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. DT Javon Hargrave has logged limited practices this week and is listed as questionable for Thursday night with a knee injury and concussion.
Most importantly, the Packers' offensive line is extremely battered, which is not ideal on the short week, as the Packers are already dead last in rushing yards per game (64.5 yards per game). RT Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon; LG Aaron Banks is out with knee and toe injuries; LG Donovan Jennings and RT Donovan Jennings are both dealing with injuries, putting in limited practice on Thursday, but will play tonight.
The Falcons get starting QB Michael Penix Jr. back tonight, as he makes his 2026 season debut after a torn ACL in 2025. Falcons CB Billy Bowman Jr. is questionable as he recovers from a torn Achilles injury he suffered last November. Additionally, DE Samson Ebukam has been ruled out after missing practice all week with a hamstring injury.
Falcons vs. Packers Spread, Over/Under – Week 3 Thursday Night Football
The Packers enter Thursday’s game as 4.5-point home favorites against the Falcons, returning a 1.36x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks.
Here are the full payouts for the Falcons vs. Packers game on PrizePicks.
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Falcons vs. Packers Prediction on Spread for TNF in NFL Week 3: 9/24/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Falcons vs. Packers prediction on the spread for Thursday, September 24.
- The Packers were 3-4-1 against the spread at home throughout the 2025 season.
- According to RBSDM, the Falcons have recorded a -0.15 expected points added (EPA) per rush through two weeks (18th in the NFL), while the Packers rank 31st (-0.47), and will still be without RB Josh Jacobs tonight.
- Atlanta has tallied a 36.9% defensive success rate through two games in 2026, which ranks fourth in the league.
- After QB Cooper Rush failed to get the Falcons to the red zone through two games, QB Michael Penix Jr. will make his season debut after recovering from a torn ACL suffered in 2025.
- Penix was 3-6 straight up in games he started last season; however, four of those losses came by less than one possession, including two OT losses.
- Penix averaged 8.8 yards per average depth of target, ranking 20th in the NFL, per PFF.
- The 2024 first-round QB completed 60.1% of his passes for 1,982 yards to go along with 9 TDs and just 3 INTs last season across nine starts – just one TD per game.
- Through two games, Packers QB Jordan Love has disappointed, ranking 29th among all QBs in EPA per play, per SumerSports.
- That's likely due to massive offensive line struggles; Love ranks 26th in pressure-to-sack rate among QBs, per PFF, behind an offensive line that ranks 30th in PFF grade.
- Love has been sacked 3+ times in each game this season; that's only happened five times across his previous 32 starts (including playoffs) in 2024 and 2025.
- With Jacobs still on the Commissioner's Exempt List, the Packers rank dead last in yards per carry, averaging 3.3 yards per carry in two games.
- The Falcons' run defense ranks seventh in rush EPA through two games, and is allowing a league-best 63 yards per game.
- Falcons RB Bijan Robinson has registered 155 rushing yards and a TD on 4.2 yards per carry this season, while leading the league in receiving yards (99) and receptions (11) among RBs.
- Robinson's 28.0% target share ranks first among RBs, as he's also lined up in the slot or out wide on 22% of pass snaps this season, per PFF.
Make your Falcons vs. Packers prediction on the spread now!
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The Falcons got off to a 0-2 start this season, but will look to turn things around with QB Michael Penix Jr. under center. Can Atlanta produce a competitive performance against Green Bay on Thursday night and cover the 4.5-point spread as the Packers make their season debut at Lambeau Field?
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