The Falcons have struggled with an 0-2 start and will visit the Packers for Thursday Night Football tonight. Reinforcements are on the way for Thursday, September 24’s 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Prime Video, as Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. is expected to make his season debut following last season’s torn ACL.
QB Cooper Rush started the last two weeks as Penix recovered from his knee injury while QB Tua Tagovailoa battled an oblique injury. Will a healthy QB room lead to a turnaround on Thursday Night Football?
Below, we’ll look at how the latest Michael Penix Jr. injury update impacts the Falcons’ chances as 4.5-point underdogs on the spread tonight, per PrizePicks. Plus, Penix’s return shakes up potential picks for PrizePicks.
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Is Michael Penix Jr. Playing Tonight vs. Packers?
Michael Penix Jr. suffered a torn ACL in Week 11 last season, missing the final seven games of the 2025 campaign. After sustaining the injury on November 16 of last year, Penix is a little over 10 months removed from the setback — putting him in line with the usual ACL timeline.
Penix has a long history of knee injuries, tearing his right ACL in 2018 and 2020 during his collegiate career. Last year’s injury was to his left ACL, and that followed a knee bruise that led to a one-game absence in 2025 as well.
Considering his injury history, about 10 months seems like an impressive turnaround for Penix. Now at three torn ACLs in his career, concerns around his long-term health are unavoidable.
For now, Penix’s return is a welcomed sight with the Falcons sitting at 0-2 while posting 8.0 PPG (32nd) and 4.2 yards per play (31st). Backup QB Cooper Rush logged -0.529 adjusted EPA per play (33rd) and a 32.7% success rate (32nd), per RBSDM.
With Penix healthy and Tua Tagovailoa active tonight, Atlanta’s offense finally has some hope to take a step in the right direction. Let’s look at how Penix under center can shift Falcons vs. Packers picks for PrizePicks.
Michael Penix Jr. Stats, Picks for Falcons vs. Packers on TNF
Following a major injury, there’s usually concern around a limited role. However, Penix has been a full-time participant in every practice leading up to Week 1, Week 2, and now Week 3. The Falcons have been patient easing their QB back into action, meaning a full-time workload is likely ahead on Thursday Night Football.
In the 2025 season, Penix made nine appearances and starts, throwing for 7.2 yards per passing attempt, 1,982 passing yards, 9 passing TDs, and 3 INTs. He finished with 0.096 adjusted EPA per play (22nd) and a 47.8% success rate (18th), which placed him around the middle of the league.
That’s a major improvement from Cooper Rush’s weak numbers over the first two contests, which also featured a league-low 60.5% on-target rate, per Pro Football Reference. For context, Penix recorded a 72.9% on-target rate over his nine starts in the 2025 season. Atlanta’s passing game — which carries 5.3 yards per passing attempt (31st) — should improve.
Here’s a look at some of Michael Penix Jr.’s projected stats for Thursday Night Football on PrizePicks.
- 205.5 Pass Yards
- 31.5 Pass Attempts
- 19 Pass Completions
- 58.7 Completion Percentage
- 1 Pass TDs
- 0.5 INT
- 1.5 Rush Attempts
- 2.5 Sacks Taken
- 13 Fantasy Score
The Packers have given up 0.161 EPA per dropback (20th) over two games. Green Bay has missed EDGE Micah Parsons, who could be targeting a Week 6 return from his ACL injury, with a 45% pass rush win rate (25th), per ESPN. Meanwhile, Atlanta touts a strong 59% pass block win rate (third), potentially giving Penix plenty of time in the pocket tonight.
Assuming Penix has a positive presence in his return, his targets — including WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts — will benefit, and that would also mean more scoring opportunities across the board. Penix’s performance on Thursday Night Football will be key for fantasy football and player picks for the remainder of the season, impacting notable players like RB Bijan Robinson.
Pick Michael Penix Jr. + Falcons to win on PrizePicks!
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Make Falcons vs. Packers Picks on PrizePicks
The Falcons are finally getting some help on offense with QB Michael Penix Jr. making his 2026 debut on Thursday Night Football vs. the Packers. Last season’s stats suggest Penix should have a positive impact on the offense, perhaps giving Atlanta a shot to turn the season around.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Falcons vs. Packers picks on PrizePIcks now! You can make picks on the winner, spread, and over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 36 states. With PrizePicks, just pick players and predict More or Less on their stats!
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