The first pitch of the Los Angeles Dodgers (52-29) vs. the San Diego Padres (42-37) is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on Friday, June 26, televised by Apple TV. PrizePicks Team Picks tabs the Dodgers as favorites with a 1.63x payout to win.
The Dodgers and Padres begin a three-game series in San Diego, and although it's only June, these divisional matchups are important. With the Dodgers holding a nine-game lead over the Padres in the National League West, Los Angeles could make this lead almost impossible to overcome by the end of the weekend.
Below, we'll break down our Dodgers vs. Padres prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Dodgers vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks for tonight’s game!
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Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, June 26
The Dodgers will have SP Roki Sasaki (3.95 xFIP in 68 IP, 13 starts) on the mound. Sasaki was a notable star out of Japan, but he has yet to find consistency in MLB.
Last year, he struggled with a 4.72 ERA in 8 starts before spending four months on the IL with a shoulder injury. He returned in September for the Dodgers’ playoff run and was used as a reliever.
He’s returned to the rotation this season, and at times he’s looked great, with three starts of at least 5 innings and allowing 1 or fewer earned runs. But he's still struggled in some starts, with 2 outings allowing 6 or more earned runs.
The reigning two-time champs are one of the best teams in the league, and PrizePicks Team Picks has the Dodgers projected as the favorite to complete the three-peat, featuring a 2.85x payout to win the 2026 World Series. Since May 19, they carry an MLB-best 23-10 record.
The Padres will counter with SP Walker Buehler (3.64 xFIP in 72.2 IP, 15 starts) on Friday. Heading into the 2026 season, we wondered whether we had already seen the best of Buehler.
His last season with the Dodgers in 2024 was a disaster with a 4.68 xERA. His 2025 season started poorly with the Red Sox, posting a 5.56 xERA, ending with his release. However, he finished strong with the Phillies, allowing just 1 earned run in 13.2 innings.
This season did not start well, proven by his 5.64 ERA and 3.43 FIP through his first seven starts. Since then, he’s turned it around with a 2.76 ERA and a 3.17 FIP in his last eight starts.
With the Padres far behind the Dodgers in the NL West, San Diego's focus might become getting into the playoffs through a Wild Card spot. On May 10, San Diego was tied with the Dodgers at 24-16, but it's plummeted in the divisional standings with an 18-21 record since.
Dodgers vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, June 26
The Dodgers enter Friday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.63x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Dodgers vs. Padres game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (2.12x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Dodgers 1.63x | Padres 2.17x
Make your Dodgers vs. Padres prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction on Over/Under – 6/26/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Dodgers vs. Padres prediction on the run total for Friday, June 26.
Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.
- Sasaki has been terrible away from Dodger Stadium with a 6.19 ERA compared to a 3.50 ERA at home.
- Buehler’s 2.56 ERA over his last 8 starts is great, but he’s had some luck given his 4.03 xERA during that time.
- Sasaki allows opposing batters to smash the ball with a 44.8% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 14th percentile. The Padres are a solid 11th in the league with a 40.4% hard-hit rate.
- Buehler struggles to make hitters swing out of the strike zone with a 27.1% chase rate that’s only in the 21st percentile. Los Angeles is well-disciplined with its 26.9% chase rate, the third-lowest in the league.
- Over Sasaki's last seven starts, five contests reached 10 or more total runs.
Lock in your Dodgers vs. Padres prediction on PrizePicks before the line moves.
Dodgers vs. Padres Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 6/26/26
Here are the top Dodgers vs. Padres picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, June 26. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani vs. Padres: 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Ohtani has been far better against right-handed pitching, with a .422 wOBA compared to a .371 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. That could be worrisome for the righty Buehler.
- The Dodgers’ two-way player has a strong history against Buehler, going 2-for-4 lifetime.
- Ohtani smashes the baseball better than almost anyone in the league, as his 54.2% hard-hit rate ranks in the 97th percentile. Buehler struggles by allowing a 42.4% hard-hit rate that sits in the 25th percentile.
- The four-time MVP does well at putting the ball on the best part of the bat with his 17.5% barrel rate, which is in the 97th percentile. Buehler is allowing a 7.4% barrel rate, which resides in the 50th percentile.
Add Shohei Ohtani to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Padres OF Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Dodgers: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- After a slow start to the year, Tatis Jr. is heating up in June with his 4.0 wRAA and .371 wOBA, each a monthly best.
- Tatis Jr. has hit first in the lineup in 22 of his last 23 games and has excelled in that spot with a .312 BA and .433 SLG this season.
- Sasaki has struggled against leadoff hitters in his career, allowing a career .328 BA and .500 SLG.
- The Padres’ outfielder has one of the fiercest bats in the game, as his 52.5% hard-hit rate ranks in the 95th percentile. That could fare well against Sasaki’s 44.8% hard-hit rate allowed, which ranks in the 12th percentile.
- Sasaki throws a four-seamer on 43.2% of his pitches, the most of any pitch. Tatis Jr. handles four-seamers very well, including a .334 wOBA and 123 wRC+ against the pitch.
Add Fernando Tatis Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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The Dodgers and Padres begin a three-game series, and Los Angeles could further build on its NL West lead this weekend. San Diego has been inconsistent since losing its early-season lead in the NL West, but this weekend is a chance to get back into contention.
Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Dodgers vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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