Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, Spread, Week 8 NFL Picks – 11/1/26

Week 8 of the 2026 NFL season features a pivotal AFC West showdown as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Denver to take on the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Ahead of kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS, K.C. is favored by 1.5 points on PrizePicks.

Kansas City enters Sunday's matchup at 5-1, sitting atop the division despite suffering its first loss of the season last week. Denver, meanwhile, is 5-2 after winning four of its last five games. The Broncos are coming off a convincing 30-16 victory over the Arizona Cardinals, with QB Bo Nix throwing for 222 yards and rushing for 73.

The Chiefs dominated the Broncos in their Week 1 meeting, winning 31-10 while rushing for 220 yards. RB Kenneth Walker III was particularly effective, finishing with 191 rushing yards in his team debut.

Below, we’ll break down our Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction and picks for NFL Week 8, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Chiefs vs. Broncos picks on PrizePicks now!

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Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 8 – Sunday, November 1

Kansas City enters Sunday's matchup as a 1.5-point favorite, returning a 1.85x payout if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for Chiefs vs. Broncos on PrizePicks.

Make your Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction on the spread or over/under.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Kansas City is averaging 23.8 PPG while generating 6.4 yards per play. This isn’t the same one-dimensional Chiefs team we've seen for the last few years; it's been particularly effective running the ball, averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

QB Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,474 yards and 9 TDs through six games, completing 64.9% of his passes. He's thrown 4 INTs, but his 7.7 yards per attempt is his highest over his last four seasons.

Kansas City's recent offensive struggles are worth monitoring, though. The Chiefs managed just 3 points against Seattle last week and have gone consecutive games without a passing TD from Mahomes. They'll need a much stronger performance against a Denver defense that has allowed just 18.3 PPG since Week 2.

Denver's offense has been considerably less productive, averaging just 20.6 PPG, ranking near the bottom of the NFL in production.

Nix has thrown for 1,271 yards and 7 TDs against 3 INTs. He's completing just 59.2% of his passes and averaging 5.8 yards per attempt, numbers that illustrate Denver's difficulty generating consistent downfield production.

The Broncos have relied heavily on short passes and yards after the catch. A staggering 64% of Nix's passing yards have come after the catch, the second-highest rate among QBs. With that said, he averaged nearly a 12-yard average depth of target against Arizona, the highest of anyone on the Week 7 slate.

Kansas City's defense has been a major strength, allowing just 17.2 PPG and 323.3 YPG. The Chiefs have also limited opponents to 3.6 YPC.

Denver's defense has been particularly effective at pressuring QBs. The Broncos have recorded 21 sacks through seven games, which was tied for the NFL lead entering Week 8.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction on Over/Under – 11/1/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Chiefs vs. Broncos over/under prediction for Sunday, November 1.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from SumerSports, PFF, and Pro Football Reference.

• The Broncos are averaging just 270.0 YPG, 30th in the NFL, and have recorded the fewest offensive plays of at least 10 yards. Their 31% third-down conversion rate is the second-lowest in the league.
• Kansas City's pass defense allows just 223.8 YPG. 
• The Chiefs are second in the NFL in tackles per game (74.2) while posting one of the league's lowest missed tackle rates.
• While the Seahawks' defense is one of one, it showed a blueprint for handling the Chiefs' offense by essentially selling out to stop Walker and forcing Mahomes to throw to shaky receiving options.
• These two teams played to a 31-10 final in Week 1, coming in under the projected 43.5 total. Together, both QBs threw for just over 300 yards combined in that game.

Lock in your Chiefs vs. Broncos over/under prediction on PrizePicks.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/1/26

Here are two Chiefs vs. Broncos player picks to consider on PrizePicks for Sunday's AFC West showdown, featuring Denver QB Bo Nix and Kansas City RB Kenneth Walker III.

Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. Chiefs: 206.5 Pass Yards

• Nix is averaging just 181.6 YPG. He's exceeded this projection in just three of his first seven games (42.8%). He only mustered 131 yards in Week 1.
• Denver's lack of downfield production is a major concern. Nix is averaging 5.8 intended air yards per attempt.
• Nix is throwing the ball 10+ yards downfield 23.5% of the time, the lowest rate of all qualifying QBs.
• The Chiefs have allowed just 6.1 net yards per pass attempt, forcing teams to attack underneath and relying on their elite tackling to limit receiver YAC.

Add Bo Nix + Broncos to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker III vs. Broncos: 89.5 Rush Yards

• Walker has been one of the NFL's most productive RBs, averaging 117 rushing YPG and 5.8 YPC. He's exceeded this projection in four of six opportunities in 2026.
• The Broncos have fielded one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing 133.3 YPG and 4.6 YPC.
• Denver has been an extreme run funnel on defense, ranking fourth in EPA/pass (-0.15) but 29th in EPA/rush (-0.02).
• Walker leads the entire NFL in missed tackle rate forced at 40.0%. He's forced 42 missed tackles this season.
• In Walker’s Week 1 177-yard outing, the Broncos posted a 29.8% missed-tackle rate, the worst in a single game since 2018.

Add Kenneth Walker III + Chiefs to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks on PrizePicks

The AFC West takes center stage Sunday afternoon as the Chiefs face the Broncos in a matchup with major implications for the division race.

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Chiefs vs. Broncos picks on PrizePicks now for Week 8 and earn real money if you're right.

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