The NFL’s Week 3 slate continues on Sunday with nine early-afternoon games, including the Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Buffalo Bills from Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. The Bills enter as 7.5-point favorites on the spread, according to PrizePicks.
The Chargers are looking for their first win of the season after a surprising 0-2 start, while the Bills aim to continue their offensive dominance over the NFL and begin the 2026 campaign 3-0. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET.
Below, we’ll break down our Chargers vs. Bills prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Chargers vs. Bills prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Chargers vs. Bills Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27
Few expected the Chargers to start this poorly with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel working with QB Justin Herbert.
History didn't expect it, either, as Los Angeles is just the second team ever to lose its first two games at home by double digits against opponents that had a sub-.200 winning percentage the previous season, joining the 1926 Racine Tornadoes.
The main issue has been the offense, where Los Angeles is near or at the bottom in every category, per RBSDM:
- 31st in EPA/play (-0.241)
- 29th in success rate (36.9%)
- 27th in Dropback EPA/play (-0.079)
- 32nd in Rush EPA/play (-0.482)
- 31st in early-down EPA/play (-0.180)
- 29th in points per drive (1.22)
- 29th in turnover rate (21.7%)
An offense that finished 12th in yards and 20th in scoring under Greg Roman in 2025 is currently 22nd and 29th after two games. The Chargers have also committed 5 turnovers, contributing to a -4 margin.
On the other side, the Bills have had no issues moving the ball or scoring, leading the league through two weeks in scoring at 38.5 PPG, EPA/play (0.368), and explosive play rate (13.4%). Buffalo is on the other side of the third-down conversion spectrum, second in the league at 60.0%, as well as second in points per drive at 3.67.
Buffalo has scored 77 points while turning the ball over not once thus far. The Bills have scored 10 offensive TDs and average 6.9 yards per play.
Since 1990, only four of 165 teams to start 0-3 have made the playoffs — just 2.4%. The Chargers themselves were one of them, recovering from an 0-4 start in 1992 to finish 11-5 and win the AFC West.
As for the Bills, they are looking for their third consecutive 3-0 start.
Chargers vs. Bills Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27
The Bills enter Sunday’s game as 7.5-point home favorites against the Chargers, returning a 1.26x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
Here are the full payouts for Chargers vs. Bills on PrizePicks.
Play the Chargers vs. Bills spread or over/under on PrizePicks.
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Chargers vs. Bills Prediction on Spread – 9/27/26
Here are the key stats and trends behind our Chargers vs. Bills prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 27.
- Buffalo has held the lead for 94:50 of 120 minutes of action, accounting for 79.0% of its total game time. By comparison, the Chargers have led for a total of 5:56 (4.9%).
- Buffalo has scored on 13 of its 18 non-kneel-down possessions, with only 4 punts and 1 turnover on downs.
- The Chargers are one of six teams to start the season 0-2 vs. the spread, but their -20.0 total mark is the worst in the NFL by over 5 points.
- The Chargers' biggest defensive weakness lines up directly with Buffalo's biggest offensive strength: L.A. is 24th in EPA/dropback (0.253), while Buffalo is first in dropback EPA/play (0.553) on offense.
- Dating back to last season, and including the playoffs, the Chargers have failed to cover in five straight contests.
- The Bills had 34 first downs on just 66 offensive plays, excluding kneel-downs against Detroit in Week 2, a 51.5% first-down-to-play ratio. Only one other team has reached that mark in 3,424 regular-season games since the start of 2013.
Make your Chargers vs. Bills picks now for Sunday’s NFL game.
Chargers vs. Bills Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/27/26
Here are the top Chargers vs. Bills picks to target on Sunday, September 27. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include QB Josh Allen, QB Justin Herbert, and RB James Cook.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert vs. Bills: 223.5 Pass Yards
- Herbert has failed to reach his passing projection in both games this season, throwing for 192 and 209 yards in Weeks 1 and 2.
- Herbert’s QBR is 29.3, 31st in the NFL and only ahead of Falcons third-string QB Cooper Rush.
- New offense? New problems. Herbert has 15 and 17 completions in his first two games after logging three total games last year with 17 or fewer completions.
- The former first-round pick is 29th in the NFL in EPA/play at -0.092.
Add Justin Herbert + Chargers to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
{{nfl_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Chargers: 2.5 Pass + Rush + Rec TDs
- Allen has been virtually unstoppable through two games, completing 40 of 60 passes for 5 passing TDs, 0 INTs, 4 rushing TDs, and a passer rating of 125.8.
- Allen’s 5 passing TDs are tied for fourth among QBs, while his 4 rushing TDs are tied for the league lead among all players.
- He's the first player in NFL history with 5+ passing TDs and 3+ rushing TDs through his team's first two games and has produced 3+ total TDs in 10 of his last 18 regular-season starts.
- At home, Allen is even better, notching 3+ total TDs in seven of his last nine regular-season home outings (77.8%), including last week's 5-TD performance.
Add Josh Allen + Bills to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Bills RB James Cook vs. Chargers: 79.5 Rush Yards
- Cook is sixth in the NFL with 5.6 yards per rush through two weeks.
- The Bills are fifth in rushing at 144.5 yards per game, averaging 5.1 yards per carry.
- Throwing out a meaningless Week 18 contest last season, Cook has 70+ yards in eight of his past 10 games, including the postseason.
- Cook’s snap share in the first two games were 72% and 74%, respectively. Last year, he finished at only 56%.
Add James Cook + Bills to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Make Chargers vs. Bills Picks on PrizePicks
Can the Chargers turn their season around instead of falling into an 0-3 hole, or will the Bills continue to dominate the early-season NFL and move to 3-0?
Don't wait until kickoff — make your Chargers vs. Bills picks on PrizePicks now for Week 3 and earn real money if you're right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on NFL game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily NFL news, picks, analysis, and more all the way through Super Bowl LXI.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state.Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
