California vs. Hawaii Prediction, Picks for Christmas Eve Hawaii Bowl

Hawaii QB Micah Alejado throws during a game against Arizona.
AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

With holiday season and bowl season alike in full swing, Wednesday presents a single matchup for college football fans to enjoy.

A nighttime bout between California (7-5) and Hawaii (8-4) sees the ACC and Mountain West clash at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. Year 22 of the Hawaii Bowl has Sheraton back as title sponsor for the first time since 2013. 

Here, we’ll break down a California vs. Hawaii prediction and picks for the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game to make picks on player projections and more.

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California vs. Hawaii Prediction, Spread, Over/Under

Wednesday marks the sixth time California and Hawaii will meet in their history. Although the Golden Bears own a series advantage, it’s of a very narrow 3-2 variety

As far as opt-outs are concerned, Hawaii WR Jackson Harris (transfer portal) is the major name to keep in mind. 

California vs. Hawaii Over/Under, Spread

The Golden Bears enter Wednesday’s game as 2.5-point underdogs, returning a 1.92x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.

The Rainbow Warriors are favorites with a 1.78x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

  • Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Game Winner Payout: Golden Bears 1.92x | Rainbow Warriors 1.78x

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

California vs. Hawaii Prediction on Spread

Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for California vs. Hawaii.

  • Hawaii is 8-3 against the spread this year, tied with Iowa for the ninth-best percentage (72.7) in the nation. California is just 5-7. 
  • California’s offense has struggled mightily this year, ranking 84th in scoring (23.9 points per game) and 117th in yards per play (4.8). 
  • The Golden Bears aren’t much better on defense, sitting 86th with 28.6 PPG allowed and 98th on third down (42.95%). 
  • Hawaii’s offense is the second-best in the red zone (94.29%) and top-50 in scoring (29.0 PPG, 42nd). 
  • Defensively, the Rainbow Warriors are 63rd in PPG at 25.4 but rank 77th in points per play (0.392). 

California vs. Hawaii Picks for Hawaii Bowl on PrizePicks

Below are prime California vs. Hawaii picks to consider for the Hawaii Bowl. PrizePicks player projections include QBs Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, Micah Alejado, and RB Kendrick Raphael.

California QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele vs. Hawaii Projection: 278.5 Pass Yards

  • Sagapolutele led the conference in pass attempts this season with 453, averaging 259.8 yards per outing in the process.
  • In his last five games of this season, Sagapolutele netted 284.2 passing yards per game with 7 TDs to just 2 INTs. 
  • According to Game on Paper, JKS’ 80.50 total EPA ranks 32nd out of 132 qualified passers.
  • While Hawaii’s pass defense is 20th in completion percentage yielded at 57.19, it’s 90th in yards per pass with 7.6 
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California RB Kendrick Raphael vs. Hawaii Projection: 77.5 Rush Yards

  • In 12 games, Raphael has cruised to new career-high marks for rush attempts (215), yards (853), and TDs (12). 
  • Raphael has been remarkably consistent this year, netting 69 yards per game in his first six contests versus 73.2 in his last six.
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the junior halfback’s 50 runs for a first down rank fourth among all ACC players. 
  • Hawaii’s run defense is an ugly 110th in EPA per play at 0.08, per Game on Paper.

Hawaii QB Micah Alejado vs. California Projection: 280.5 Pass Yards

  • Alejado made the most of his increased playing time, leading his conference with 283.2 passing yards per game this year.
  • The second-year man ranks 15th in total EPA (98.49) and 28th in EPA per dropback (0.28) this season. 
  • California struggles to get home to the QB, sitting 101st with a 5.10% sack rate.
  • Per Game on Paper, the Golden Bears are a solid 37th in EPA per pass but are 49th in success rate through the air. 

Make California vs. Hawaii Picks on PrizePicks

With bowl season in full swing, don’t think the opportunities stop at California vs. Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can cash in on the action for every contest. 

Doing so is simple. Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn rewards if you’re right. 

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football predictions, picks, and news.


Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.

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about the author

Jordan Foote is a seasoned sports writer with years of experience covering the NFL, NBA and MLB for multiple outlets. He is a Baker University alumnus, earning his degree in Mass Media with an emphasis in sports journalism. Foote was born and raised in Kansas City, where he still resides to this day.

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