Buccaneers vs. Bengals Prediction, NFL Week 1 Picks – Sunday, September 13

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals are set to begin their 2026 NFL season with a matchup on Sunday, September 13, at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX. The Bengals get their campaign underway as 3.5-point home favorites over the Buccaneers on PrizePicks.

After recently signing QB Baker Mayfield to a lucrative contract extension, Tampa Bay has the lowest payout (2.43x) to win the NFC South this season, per PrizePicks. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has its sights set on returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2022 with a healthy QB Joe Burrow.

Below, we’ll break down our Buccaneers vs. Bengals prediction and picks for Sunday’s NFL game, including the spread, over/under, and PrizePicks player projections for Week 1.

Make your Buccaneers vs. Bengals picks for Week 1 on PrizePicks!

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Buccaneers vs. Bengals Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

After securing an 8-9 record in 2025, the Buccaneers snapped their four-year streak of winning the NFC South. Head coach Todd Bowles is entering his fifth year at the helm, and pressure is mounting to deliver postseason success to Tampa Bay.

With injuries occurring to Mayfield, RB Bucky Irving, WR Mike Evans, and WR Emeka Egbuka a season ago, the Bucs were 20th in EPA/play (0.01) and 22nd in success rate (43.3%), per RBSDM. Evans, who spent the first 12 seasons of his career in Tampa Bay, is now a member of the San Francisco 49ers, where he posted 6 catches for 49 receiving yards and 1 TD on Thursday vs. the Rams.

Since the Bengals advanced to the Super Bowl in 2021 and the AFC Championship in 2022, they’ve failed to achieve at least 10 wins in the last four seasons. Similar to Bowles, there’s pressure on head coach Zac Taylor’s shoulders to help Cincy contend in the AFC this year.

Burrow missed nine games due to injury a season ago, leading to the Bengals earning a 6-11 record. While Cincinnati was 10th in offensive success rate (46.4%) with veteran QB Joe Flacco helping fill in, it was just 19th in EPA/play (0.01).

Ahead of the 2026 season, Burrow is seemingly fully healthy, which has him tied with QB Josh Allen for the lowest payout to win NFL MVP (7.14x) on PrizePicks.

Buccaneers vs. Bengals Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Sunday, September 13

The Bengals enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point favorites against the Buccaneers, returning a 1.49x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for Buccaneers vs. Bengals.

Make your Buccaneers vs. Bengals prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks!

Payouts show potential returns on correct predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.

Buccaneers vs. Bengals Prediction on Over/Under – 9/13/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Buccaneers vs. Bengals prediction on the total for Sunday, September 13.

• With Burrow playing in all 17 games for the Bengals in 2024, they were 6-2 to the over at home.
• Across Cincy’s first three home games in 2025, there were at least 58 total points scored before the offense’s efficiency tailed off amid Burrow’s absence.
• The Buccaneers were a pass-funnel defense last season, sitting at 27th in dropback success rate (49.7%) and fourth in rushing success rate (36.6%) allowed. 
• This allows the Bengals to throw often with their dynamic trio of Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, and WR Tee Higgins.
• While Cincinnati added All-Pro DT Dexter Lawrence this offseason, it was 29th in EPA/play (0.12) and 27th in success rate (47.6%) allowed last year.
• In four of their first six games in 2025 before Egbuka and Irving were hindered by injuries, the Buccaneers scored at least 25 points.
• The over is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings between Tampa Bay and Cincinnati.

Buccaneers vs. Bengals Picks, Player Stats for Week 1 on PrizePicks: 9/13/26

Here are the top Buccaneers vs. Bengals picks to target on Sunday, September 13. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include WR Ja'Marr Chase, QB Joe Burrow, and RB Kenneth Gainwell.

Buccaneers RB Kenneth Gainwell vs. Bengals: 21.5 Receiving Yards

• Gainwell signed a solid two-year, $14 million deal with the Bucs in the offseason, which indicates he’ll have an immediate role in the offense.
• To conclude last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Gainwell achieved 25 or more receiving yards in seven of his last eight appearances.
• That includes an outing against the Bengals on November 16, when he had 7 catches, 81 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs.
• Of the RBs who handled 100-plus carries in 2025, Gainwell had the fourth-most receptions (73), fifth-most receiving yards (486), and fifth-highest target share (16.3%).

Add Kenneth Gainwell to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. Buccaneers: 7 Receptions

• Chase posted at least 7 receptions in nine of his 16 games last season.
• In five of his last six games in 2025, Chase tallied 7 or more catches.
• Among WRs with 250-plus routes run last year, Chase accrued the second-highest target share (32.2%) and fifth-most targets per route run (0.29), per Sumer Sports.
• Considering that Burrow is back healthy, it’s worth noting that Chase notched at least 7 receptions in eight of his final 10 starts catching passes from Burrow in 2024. 

Add Ja'Marr Chase to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Bengals QB Joe Burrow vs. Buccaneers: 34.5 Pass Attempts

• Once again, the Buccaneers were a pass-funnel defense last season.
• Since Bowles has been the head coach of Tampa Bay since 2022, they are 25th in dropback success rate (47.3%) and third in rushing success rate (38.3%) allowed.
• When Burrow returned from injury in Week 13 of last season, he threw the ball at least 36 times in four of his final six starts.
• A healthy Burrow had 36 or more attempts in 12 of his 17 starts in 2024.

Add Joe Burrow to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Entering the new NFL campaign, both Mayfield and Burrow are healthy, which sets up well for a high-scoring affair between the Buccaneers and Bengals. Will it be points galore in Sunday’s contest, or will there be rust involved in both teams’ openers?

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