Brewers vs. Rays Prediction, MLB Picks for World Series Game 5 – Wednesday, October 28

First pitch for the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays World Series Game 5 is set for 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla.

The Brewers lead 3-1 in the World Series after the Rays survived elimination with a dramatic 4-3, 12-inning, walk-off win on Tuesday. Milwaukee looked poised to complete the sweep when SS Cooper Pratt homered in the top of the 12th, but Tampa Bay rallied for 2 runs, keeping its championship hopes alive.

Milwaukee will turn to SP Jacob Misiorowski, one of baseball's most dominant regular-season starters. Tampa Bay didn't announce its starter early on Wednesday, leaving uncertainty about the Rays' pitching strategy with the season on the line.

Below, we'll break down our Brewers vs. Rays prediction and picks for Wednesday's Game 5, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Brewers vs. Rays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for World Series Game 5 – Wednesday, October 28

Milwaukee enters Game 5 as the road favorite against Tampa Bay, returning a 1.58x payout if it wins outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Brewers vs. Rays game on PrizePicks.

Make your Brewers vs. Rays prediction on the winner on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and MLB.com.

Misiorowski has already faced Tampa Bay in this series, allowing 1 earned run over 5.0 innings in Game 1. He'll need another strong performance against a Rays lineup that finally found a way to come through in the biggest moments on Tuesday and may carry over some of that momentum into tonight’s game. 

Tampa Bay may opt for a bullpen-heavy approach, although it could start SP Drew Rasmussen on just four days' rest. Either way, the priority will be keeping the Brewers' dangerous lineup under control.

With elimination looming, look for the Rays to have a short leash for their starter and be aggressive with their best relievers.

Milwaukee's bullpen also faces a challenging situation after Tuesday's 12-inning marathon. The Brewers had a chance to close out the series but ultimately couldn't finish the job, meaning their relievers will need to regroup quickly.

Both teams threw all their top arms last night, so tonight may be more of a test of endurance than anything for both staffs. 

Tampa’s late rally may give the Rays a much-needed confidence boost, although they'll need to generate more consistent offense against Misiorowski to avoid falling behind early.

Those who watched last night’s game saw superstar 3B Junior Caminero limp off the field as the tying run in the bottom of the 12th inning. The good news is manager Kevin Cash said Caminero was “fine."

Brewers vs. Rays Prediction on Winner for World Series Game 5 – 10/28/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Brewers vs. Rays prediction on the winner for Wednesday's World Series Game 5.

• We’re going right back to the well tonight for one of the most dominant home teams in recent baseball history. The Rays' 68.2% home win percentage ranks second this season behind only the Brewers.
• Misiorowski hasn’t been his usual dominant self so far in October. His xERA (4.0) and xFIP (3.14) are both well above his regular-season marks of 2.12 and 2.29, respectively.
• The young righty has thrown 188.0 IP across both regular and postseason play. Before this year, he'd never thrown more than 97.1 in a season, so fatigue might just be playing a role right now.
• The Rays' offense has been better at home all season, posting a 107 wRC+ at the Trop compared to a 100 wRC+ on the road.
• Additionally, Tampa has been significantly better against RHP. The Rays have the fourth-best wRC+ (110) against righties but the fifth-worst wRC+ (90) against lefties.
• The Miz has been slightly worse on the road, sporting a 2.01 xFIP and 1.99 BB/9 at home compared to marks of 2.62 and 2.6 in away games.
• The Brewers' bullpen xFIP (3.57) sits well above its ERA (1.34), and its .220 BABIP is well below average — both potential signs of looming negative regression.

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Brewers vs. Rays Picks, Player Stats for World Series on PrizePicks: 10/28/26

Here are two Brewers vs. Rays player picks to consider in Wednesday's World Series Game 5. Today's MLB picks for PrizePicks include Jacob Misiorowski and Chandler Simpson.

Brewers SP Jacob Misiorowski vs. Rays: 5.5 Strikeouts

• Misiorowski recorded 252 strikeouts over 174.2 innings during the regular season, averaging almost 13 K/9. However, he's notched just 14 strikeouts across 13.1 innings in three postseason starts, netting fewer than 5 Ks per outing.
• He's come in below this projection in two of his three postseason starts — most importantly in his last start against the Rays, where he had only 3 Ks at home.
• Tampa Bay has an incredibly contact-oriented lineup, as seen by the fact that it had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season (18.7%).
• Miz saw a dip in his strikeout rate on the road this season from 13.74/9 at home to 12.09/9 on the road. The K/9 mark also dipped from 13.54 in the first half of the season to 12.02 in the second half.

Add Jacob Misiorowski + Brewers to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Rays LF Chandler Simpson vs. Brewers: 5.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Simpson hit .306 with 175 hits and 46 stolen bases during the regular season, giving him multiple ways to contribute to his fantasy score.
• His contact ability is particularly appealing against Misiorowski. Simpson struck out in just 7.8% of his regular-season plate appearances, making him a difficult matchup for a pitcher whose biggest strength is generating swings and misses. He's 2-for-4 with a walk against Misiorowski in his career.
• Simpson has also been fantastic in the World Series, recording 6 hits in 16 at-bats entering Game 5. He has also swiped a pair of bags, which has helped him clear this projection in three of the four games.
• Chandler hit just .279 with an 83 wRC+ in the first half of the season but improved to .344 with a 107 wRC+ in the second half.

Add Chandler Simpson + Rays to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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The Brewers are one win away from securing their first World Series championship after taking a 3-1 series lead. Misiorowski gives them a significant weapon on the mound, while Simpson offers Tampa Bay a contact-first approach and elite speed.

Can Milwaukee bounce back from Tuesday's heartbreaking loss, or will Tampa Bay defend its home field again and send the World Series back to Milwaukee for Game 6?

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your Brewers vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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