Braves vs. Padres Prediction, MLB Picks for Monday, June 22

The first pitch of the matchup between the Atlanta Braves (48-28) and the San Diego Padres (39-37) is set for 10:00 p.m. ET on Monday, June 22, with the Braves favored and returning a 1.85x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win.

The Braves looked like one of the best in baseball for most of the season, but they are currently on a tough stretch, having lost four of their last six and playing without star RF Ronald Acuña Jr. 

The Padres, meanwhile, are just trying to remain a contender but lack consistency. They’ve dropped 17 of their last 25, winning back-to-back just once during that span, and have lost significant ground in the National League West.

Below, we'll break down our Braves vs. Padres prediction and picks for Monday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Braves vs. Padres prediction on PrizePicks for tonight’s game.

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Braves vs. Padres Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, June 22

The Braves will start SP Grant Holmes (4.58 xFIP in 68.2 IP, 14 starts). Holmes has a lot of talent, and at times he’s looked great. Last year, for example, he had two instances in which he went 5 innings and allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in three consecutive starts.

With that said, he also had 3 starts in which he went 4 or fewer innings and allowed 4+ earned runs. It’s been relatively the same type of campaign this season. Over Holmes' last two starts, he’s allowed 6 earned runs in just 5.2 innings.

Early in the season, the Braves looked like one of the best teams in the league and were running away with the NL East. It wasn't until June 12 that they lost their third straight game, but it’s part of a recent rough patch in which they've lost seven of their last 10.

Atlanta maintains a 6.5-game lead in the division, but that's down from 10.5.

The Padres will counter with SP Michael King (4.36 xFIP in 85 IP, 15 starts). King was part of the Juan Soto trade, and it's worked out well — he has a 3.23 ERA with San Diego. In his first 56 Padres starts, he never had a stretch of three consecutive starts in which he allowed 3+ earned runs.

However, he’s currently in the worst stretch of his career, allowing 3+ in five straight starts with a 6.41 ERA and a 6.44 FIP over that span.

The Padres have high expectations given their talent and how much money they spend on the roster. They currently rank ninth in payroll ($213.4 million), their seventh straight year in the top 10. It hasn’t delivered much success, though.

Since 2020, San Diego has missed the playoffs twice, had only one NLCS appearance, and hasn't been to the World Series at all.

The NL West might not be within reach, as the reigning two-time champion Dodgers hold a 9-game lead, but the Padres are only 0.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot.

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Braves vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under – Monday, June 22

The Braves enter Monday’s game as road favorites, returning a 1.85x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Braves vs. Padres game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (2.5x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (1.85x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Braves 1.85x | Padres 1.88x

Play the Braves vs. Padres spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Braves vs. Padres Prediction on Over/Under – 6/22/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Braves vs. Padres prediction on the run total for Monday, June 22.

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Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Opponents are crushing the ball against Holmes, as he’s allowing a 44.9% hard-hit rate that ranks in the 13th percentile. The Padres are a power lineup, sitting eighth in the league with a 40.7% hard-hit rate.
• King is allowing hitters to make excellent contact; his 9.9% barrel rate ceded resides in the 22nd percentile. The Braves have the fourth-best barrel rate in baseball at 9.3%.
• When the sun goes down, Holmes is at his worst, evidenced by a 5.09 ERA in 10 night starts this year.
• King’s 5.29 ERA in June is the second worst of any month in his career in which he has made at least a trio of starts.
• There have been 9+ total runs scored in Holmes’ last four starts.

Braves vs. Padres Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 6/22/26

Here are the top Braves vs. Padres picks to target on Monday, June 22. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Fernando Tatis Jr. and Michael Harris II.

Padres RF Fernando Tatis Jr. vs. Braves: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Tatis Jr. has been playing his best baseball of the year in June, owning a .338 BA, .363 wOBA, and 135 wRC+, all monthly season highs. 
• The Padres RF/2B is pummeling the ball. His 59.0% hard-hit rate in June is the fourth highest in MLB.
• Tatis Jr. has been spraying hits away, as his 21.6% opposite air rate is higher than in any other direction. Holmes is yielding a 20.0% opposite air rate, a bit higher than the 19.3% MLB average.
• Holmes throws his slider on 39.4% of his pitches, his most prominent offering. Tatis Jr. owns a .306 wOBA against the pitch.

Add Fernando Tatis Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Braves CF Michael Harris II vs. Padres: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI

• Harris II has been one of the top overall hitters in the league this season, with his .308 xBA ranking fourth.
• The Braves' star center fielder has an excellent history against King, going 3-for-6 in his career.
• Harris II has one of the best barrel rates in the league at 15.4%, which occupies the 93rd percentile.
• King’s allowing a .423 xSLG, which is well above the MLB average of .408. Harris II’s .552 xSLG is the eighth-best.

Add Michael Harris II to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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The Braves and Padres haven't been playing their best baseball and need to start putting wins on the board as the season’s halfway point approaches. Today, Grant Holmes and Michael King square off on the mound and are two pitchers who could benefit from quality starts.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Braves vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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