Down 0-2 in the American League Championship Series, the Toronto Blue Jays enter Game 3 against the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday with their season hanging by a thread. In a best-of-seven format; no team wants to fall into an 0-3 hole — only one team has ever come back to win the series after such a deficit.
The Blue Jays will turn to their veteran pitcher Shane Bieber on Wednesday, hoping to finally break through against Seattle’s and extend the series. The Mariners will pitch George Kirby vs. the Blue Jays in an advantageous home matchup, with first pitch is set for 8:07 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park on FOX.
Below, we'll give you our Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction and picks for Wednesday night, including same-game player picks for PrizePicks.
Can Toronto claw its way back into the series and give itself a fighting chance, or will Seattle move to one win away from the World Series?
Let’s dive into the Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions and picks for tonight’s critical Game 3.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Prediction, Preview for ALCS Game 3
Here's a look at how both teams are performing going into the Blue Jays vs. Mariners ALCS Game 3 tonight. Use these stats and analysis for ALCS Game 3 to make your game prediction tonight.
Mariners Preview vs. Blue Jays
The Mariners have a shot to put this series out of reach for the Blue Jays, after taking two straight games in Toronto to start the series. The Mariners are two wins away from returning to the World Series for the first time in almost a quarter-century.
With George Kirby on the mound, they look to be in good hands, as Kirby has allowed two or less runs in five straight starts.
Cal Raleigh, the potential AL MVP, has been the spark for Seattle’s offense throughout the postseason. In 28 at-bats, he has produced 10 hits, including two home runs, for a .357 batting average.
His clutch swing in the sixth inning of Game 1 set the tone and gave the Mariners the lead, showcasing his ability to deliver in crucial moments.
However, home vs. a RHP is Raleigh's worst split this season, batting just .198 with a 128 wRC+.
Josh Naylor, who struggled during the early part of the year, has finally found his rhythm in October. He has 9 hits in 31 postseason at-bats, good for a .300 average, and his timely power has added another dangerous layer to Seattle’s lineup.
Unfortunataely, Eugenio Suárez who was second on the team in home runs with 49 during the regular season has been a disappointment. He has managed only four hits in 29 at-bats for a .138 batting average, becoming a major liability in the order at a time when the Mariners need him most.
However, the righty gets a good matchup vs. Blue Jays P Shane Bieber, who has been crushed by righties in just 18.1 innings this year, giving up 2.95 HR/9 in the regular season.
Blue Jays Preview vs. Mariners
For Toronto, the bullpen has been the biggest problem, surrendering 3 earned runs after the sixth inning in Game 1 and another 4 earned runs late in Game 2. That inability to hold leads or keep games close has been a key reason the Blue Jays are down 0–2 in the series, and now have to go on the road.
At the plate, veteran George Springer has not provided the spark Toronto hoped for, hitting just .200 in the postseason. The absence of star shortstop Bo Bichette has also left a noticeable hole in the lineup.
Still, there have been bright spots. Dalton Varsho has stepped up with seven hits in 23 at-bats, good for a .304 postseason average, while also driving in runs and scoring 2 runs.
Even more impressive has been Nathan Lukes, who has emerged as a surprise contributor. In 17 postseason at-bats, he has 7 hits including 2 doubles and is responsible for 6 RBIs while hitting over .400.
Toronto will need more of that production from its role players if the stars continue to struggle.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Picks for ALCS Game 3
Here are the top Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks for PrizePicks today. Use this analysis to build your Lineups on PrizePicks MLB on Wednesday, October 15, for ALCS Game 3. Click to read more about each pick.
Mariners P George Kirby vs. Blue Jays Projection: 27.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score
- In George Kirby’s last 83 plate appearances, Kirby has allowed just a 6.4% barrel rate, 48.9% hard-hit rate, and a very low 21.3% fly ball rate.
- In his last 21 innings pitched, he’s surrendered only 5 earned runs while striking out 32 batters.
- Kirby's strikeout percentage is up 11% in comparison to his season average over his last few starts.
- Kirby has benefitted from pitching the friendly confines of T-Mobile Parkthisseason — which profiles as a pitcher park. He gives up a .227 average (vs. .279 on the road), .275 wOBA (vs. .327), with a 3.38 ERA (vs. 5.16).
Blue Jays P Shane Bieber vs. Mariners Projection: 25.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score
- Shane Bieber is making just his ninth start since returning from Tommy John surgery. He hasn't recorded more than 5 strikeouts in five straight starts.
- In his last 61 plate appearances against, Bieber has allowed a 14.6% barrel rate, a 60.4% hard-hit rate, and an alarming 35.4% fly ball rate.
- He’s allowed 2+ earned runs in each of his last three starts, struggling to limit damage.
- Bieber’s strikeout production has also dropped: his 14.8% K-rate across those 61 plate appearances is well below his 22.4% season-long K-rate.
- Bieber has held Eugenio Suarez, Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena to a combined 5-for-35 in his career, which does help his outlook today.
Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- Vladimir Guerrero has been red-hot in the postseason, hitting .375 with 9 hits in 24 at-bats, including 3 home runs and 9 RBIs.
- In his career vs. George Kirby, Guerrero is 2-for-9 (.222), with 1 extra-base hit.
- Against sliders this season, Kirby’s second-most used pitch, Guerrero owns a 54% hard-hit rate, a 14% barrel rate, and a .303 BABIP.
- Vladdy oddly owns a better hitting split away from home hitting .323 on the road to his lousy .232 average at home this season.
Make ALCS Picks Tonight on PrizePicks
Wednesday's Blue Jays vs Mariners ALCS Game 3 provides plenty of spots to get real money action, as the ALCS is shifting in favor of the Mariners holding a 2-0 series lead back in Seattle.
Just make your MLB predictions on PrizePicks with your favorite MLB players and win real money if your picks are correct. All you have to do is pick More or Less on at least two player projections — like hits+runs+RBIs or pitcher fantasy Score — to win.
Whether you’re going with pitchers or hitters, there’s always real money sports action waiting for you on PrizePicks. Stay locked in on the Playbook all season long for MLB DFS picks for PrizePicks every day.
