Bills vs. Vikings Prediction, Pick Against the Spread for Monday Night Football

On Monday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills (6-1) hit the road to face the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN. The Bills enter as 3.5-point road favorites on the spread, per PrizePicks.

In Week 8, the Bills took advantage of a Baltimore Ravens team that lost its top two QBs in the first half, eventually pulling away for a 36-10 home win. Meanwhile, the Vikings are coming off their first loss after falling on the road to the Detroit Lions by a final of 19-15.

Minnesota will be without starting QB Kyler Murray due to a hamstring injury, so QB Carson Wentz will get the start against Buffalo. However, the Vikings have been winning behind the strength of their elite defense. 

In a battle of one-loss teams, who comes out on top tonight?

Below, we’ll break down our Bills vs. Vikings prediction and pick for the spread for Monday Night Football in NFL Week 9.

Make your Bills vs. Vikings prediction on PrizePicks for MNF!

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Bills vs. Vikings Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Monday Night Football – November 9

The Bills enter Monday’s game as 3.5-point road favorites against the Vikings, returning a 1.51x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.

Here are the full payouts for the Bills vs. Vikings game on Monday Night Football, via PrizePicks. 

Make your Bills vs. Vikings prediction on the spread on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

It’s no secret the Bills have one of the NFL’s top offenses behind the strong play of QB Josh Allen. Buffalo leads the way in both PPG (33.3) and YPG (393.1) this season.

In Week 8’s win over the Ravens, Allen and the offense got off to a slow start, but he ultimately stuffed the stat sheet by completing 21 of 34 passes for 289 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT and tacking on 7 rushes for 30 yards and a TD. He’s accounted for 2+ TDs in all seven starts this year.

WR DJ Moore has dealt with a shoulder injury for much of the season, but he doesn’t have an injury designation this week. On the other hand, the team is dealing with ailments on the offensive line, as T Dion Dawkins and G Alec Anderson are both listed as questionable.

Unlike the offense, Buffalo’s defense has struggled, sitting 24th in PPG (25.9) and 23rd in YPG (352.1). The team is tied for the league’s fifth-fewest sacks (15), too.

The Vikings’ offense will need to take advantage of this plus matchup to have any shot at the upset. The good news for Minnesota is the swap from Murray to Wentz might not be a downgrade. 

In his two appearances this season, Wentz has averaged 0.150 EPA/play, whereas Murray's averaged -0.011, per RBSDM. When Wentz came in relief of an injured Murray in Week 1 vs. the Green Bay Packers, he threw 3 TDs and the team scored a season-high 39 points.

In his lone start in Week 2, he failed to throw a TD in a 9-3 win over the Chicago Bears, but that was an poor-weather game where both sides struggled.

Of course, it’s the defense that really drives this team, as it's first in PPG (13.3) and second in YPG (271.6). This could be a fascinating strength-on-strength matchup between the Buffalo offense and Minnesota defense.    

Bills vs. Vikings Prediction on Spread for Monday Night Football – 11/9/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Bills vs. Vikings pick against the spread for Monday Night Football on November 9.

• Wentz’s 0.150 EPA/play in 2026 would sit just outside the top 10 among qualified QBs.
• WR Justin Jefferson saw season highs in receptions (8) and yards (92) with Wentz playing most of the game in Week 1. Additionally, 2 of Wentz’s 3 TDs were to Jefferson. Murray has thrown 2 TDs to Jefferson all season.
• Buffalo’s offense is first in EPA/play (0.175) and fourth in success rate (49.0%). However, the defense ranks 27th in EPA/play allowed (0.085) and 29th in success rate (47.2%).
• Among 35 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks, Allen has the eighth-highest turnover worthy play rate (4.2%), per PFF. 
• The Vikings’ D is tied for the most sacks per game (3.6). Minnesota ranks first in pressure rate (45.4%), per Sharp Football Analysis, and is also first in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (63%). Buffalo's injuries along the offensive line could further make it difficult to slow this dominant pass rush.
• The Minnesota defense sits first in EPA/play (-0.189) and success rate (36.1%). This includes being first in dropback EPA/play (-0.210) and sixth in rush EPA/play (-0.161).
• The Vikings have held opponents below 20 points in six straight games. 

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Make Bills vs. Vikings Picks on PrizePicks

The Buffalo Bills boast one of the NFL’s top offenses, while the Minnesota Vikings possess arguably the league’s most lethal defense. Which side will get the upper hand on Monday Night Football?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Bills vs. Vikings picks on PrizePicks now for Week 9 and earn real money if you're right.

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