Bills vs. Vikings Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks for Monday Night Football

Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season concludes with a Monday Night Football showdown as the Buffalo Bills travel to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Entering the showdown, Buffalo is favored by 3.5 points on PrizePicks.

Buffalo rolls into this one at 6-1 after earning a dominant 36-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 8. Minnesota, meanwhile, just suffered its first loss of the season by falling 19-15 to the Detroit Lions.

Can QB Josh Allen and the Bills' explosive offense overcome Minnesota's aggressive defense, or will the Vikings find a way to slow down Buffalo and get back in the win column despite being without starting QB Kyler Murray?

Below, we’ll break down our Bills vs. Vikings prediction and picks for Week 9’s Monday Night Football game, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Bills vs. Vikings picks on PrizePicks now!

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Bills vs. Vikings Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 9 Monday Night Football – November 9

Buffalo enters Monday's matchup as a 3.5-point road favorite, returning a 1.51x payout if they win outright. The over/under is set at 44.5 points.

Here are the full payouts for Bills vs. Vikings on PrizePicks.

Make your Bills vs. Vikings prediction on the spread or over/under on PrizePicks.

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Buffalo has been one of the NFL's most dominant offenses, averaging 33.3 points and 393.1 yards per game. The Bills rank first in scoring and second in total offense, while their 148.4 rushing YPG ranks third in the league.

Allen has been outstanding, completing 65.9% of his passes for 1,793 yards and 11 TDs against 5 INTs through seven games. He's also added 270 rushing yards and 9 (!) TDs on the ground.

RB James Cook has been equally productive, recording 707 rushing yards and 7 TDs on 138 carries. His 5.1 yards per carry sit among the league's best, and he's coming off an 80-yard performance against Baltimore.

Minnesota has been considerably less productive offensively. The Vikings average just 20.0 PPG and 279.4 YPG, ranking 27th and 29th in the NFL, respectively.

The Vikings will also be without Murray, who's sidelined with a hamstring injury. Backup QB Carson Wentz is expected to start, creating a steep challenge for an offense that already ranks 31st in passing production at 165.6 YPG.

Minnesota's best offensive weapon remains WR Justin Jefferson, who has recorded 335 receiving yards and 4 TDs on 28 receptions. TE T.J. Hockenson has also been productive, totaling 295 receiving yards and 3 TDs.

Defensively, however, Minnesota is downright elite. The Vikings allow just 13.3 PPG and 271.6 YPG, good for top-two marks in the NFL. They're especially effective against opposing passing attacks, surrendering only 154.9 YPG.

Minnesota's pass rush has been a major reason for that success, generating 25 sacks through seven games and having the most blitz-happy unit in the sport.

Buffalo's defense is far less impressive, particularly struggling against the pass, surrendering 254.7 YPG. That's the third-highest figure leaguewide.

Bills vs. Vikings Prediction on Spread for MNF – 11/9/26

Here are the key stats and predictions behind our Bills vs. Vikings pick against the spread for Monday Night Football.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from SumerSports, PFF, and Pro Football Reference.

• Buffalo's most difficult challenge could be Minnesota's defensive pressure. The Vikings blitz on 73.6% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the Next Gen Stats era, and have generated pressure on 46.4% of opposing dropbacks.
• However, Allen has historically handled pressure well. Since 2024, he's completed 63.0% of his passes against the blitz, throwing 26 TDs against 9 INTs while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. He's also completed 66% of his passes against the blitz in 2026.
• Wentz has limited experience as Minnesota's starter this year, completing 11 of 20 passes for just 143 yards in his Week 2 start against Chicago.
• Buffalo has also been much more effective on third downs, converting 44.2% of its attempts compared to Minnesota's 36.0%.
• Minnesota's defense has operated as a run funnel this season, sitting 17th in EPA/rush (-0.09).

Lock in your Bills vs. Vikings spread prediction on PrizePicks.

Bills vs. Vikings Picks, Player Stats for MNF on PrizePicks: 11/9/26

Here are two Bills vs. Vikings player picks to consider on PrizePicks for Monday Night Football, featuring QB Josh Allen and WR Justin Jefferson.

Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Vikings: 30.5 Rush Yards

• Allen is averaging 38.6 rushing yards per contest and 4.9 yards per attempt. He's also scored 9 rushing TDs, tied for second in the league.
• Buffalo consistently uses Allen as a designed runner near the end zone, giving him opportunities beyond scrambles.
• Minnesota often sending extra defenders could leave a QB like Allen more chances to escape pressure and pick up yards with his legs.
• This Vikings defense has been significantly better against the pass than the run this year, ranking first in EPA/dropback, so it'd be wise for Buffalo to lean on its power running game behind Allen.

Add Josh Allen + Bills to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Bills: 80.5 Rec Yards

• Jefferson has been somewhat quiet this season, but he's still averaging 12.0 yards per reception and has seen 40 targets, giving him a 20% target share despite Minnesota's inconsistent passing offense.
• The QB change could serve as a boost. Jefferson caught 8 passes for 92 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1 when Wentz took over under center. Wentz has targeted Jefferson 15 times across his two starts this year.
• The Bills rank 26th in defensive EPA/pass and have surrendered 1,078 receiving yards and 11 TDs to opposing WRs.
• The Vikings may also need to throw frequently to keep pace with Buffalo's high-powered offense. If that's the case, Jefferson might have plenty of opportunities to accumulate targets and yards.

Add Justin Jefferson + Vikings to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Bills vs. Vikings Picks on PrizePicks

Week 9 concludes with a fascinating matchup between two 6-1 teams, as Buffalo faces its toughest defensive challenge of the season against Minnesota.

Can Allen find a way to solve Brian Flores' aggressive defensive scheme, or will the Vikings' defense make enough plays to keep the game close while Wentz and the offense aim to pull off an upset?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Bills vs. Vikings picks on PrizePicks. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you're right.

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