NFL Week 2 was filled with upsets, including the Browns defeating the Buccaneers 23-19 on the road. The Saints also pulled off a 24-17 upset over the Ravens in Baltimore. In the most lopsided game of the week, the Panthers blew the doors off the Falcons, 34-3.
What games stand out in NFL Week 3 to make predictions and picks?
Below, we’ll examine the NFL Week 3 schedule and discuss our best NFL predictions for the week, including picks for winners, spreads, over/under, team totals, and more on PrizePicks.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction Against Spread for NFL Week 3
Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: FOX
The Bills began the season with two difficult matchups against the Texans and Lions. Both have playoff aspirations, but they were no match for Buffalo. The Bills pulled out a late 36-31 win over Houston in Week 1, then defeated Detroit 41-31 in a game that was more of a domination than the final score indicates.
The Bills’ offense has been electric through two games under new head coach Joe Brady, ranking fourth in passing yards per game and fifth in rush yards. Bills QB Josh Allen has already thrown 5 TDs and scored 4 on the ground. He is on pace for his fourth straight season with at least 25 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs.
Los Angeles has been at the other end of the spectrum, going 0-2 with losses to the Cardinals and Raiders and underwhelming significantly. Much of the blame falls on Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who has struggled under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, combining for 401 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs.
He has completed only 59.3% of his passes, a considerable drop from his career mark of 66.4%. The upside is that his average depth of target is 10.2 yards, per PFF, but it hasn't produced results so far.
Asking the Chargers to hold Allen in check during this matchup might be a tall order. They are 25th in Dropback expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, per RBSDM. It won’t help if they play again without safety Elijah Molden (hamstring), who did not play against the Raiders last week. DL Dalvin Tomlinson (hamstring) also didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, putting his status in doubt.
It’s difficult to envision the Chargers keeping this game close on the road.
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New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction on Over/Under for NFL Week 3
Game Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
How to Watch: CBS
Scoring could be a problem for the Patriots with WR A.J. Brown (ankle) on IR. In their first full game without him, they scored just 20 points against the Steelers on Sunday. Patriots QB Drake Maye attempted only 22 passes in the 17-point victory, finishing with 208 yards and 1 INT.
The Patriots could keep leaning on their defense, which allowed only 16 points through two games. They are second in dropback EPA/play allowed, and they already have 6 sacks. CB Christian Gonzalez is a key piece of it, with 3 pass breakups and just 5 receptions allowed in 2026, per PFF.
The Broncos held the Jaguars in check last week, scoring only 13 points in their defeat. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence did not finish with a touchdown, throwing for 189 yards and 1 INT. Former first-round pick WR Brian Thomas Jr. is struggling, catching 6 passes for 80 yards through two games. Lawrence has relied heavily on Parker Washington, who has 12 receptions for 181 yards and 1 TD.
If the Patriots put Gonzalez on Washington and he continues to lock him down in man-to-man, Lawrence will be forced to rely on Thomas and WR Jakobi Meyers, who has only 3 receptions while he continues to battle a thumb ailment.
Given the Patriots’ lack of weapons on offense and their defense's fast start, points could be at a premium in this matchup.
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New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions Prediction on Over/Under for NFL Week 3
Game Time: FOX
How to Watch: 1:00 p.m. ET
The Lions have already played two high-scoring games this season. In Week 1, they combined with the Saints to score 61 points in overtime, then combined with the Bills to score 72 points in regulation on Thursday Night Football.
They are the only team in the league to score at least 30 points and also allow at least 30 points in both games.
Defensive struggles are nothing new for the Lions. They are currently 24th in Dropback EPA/play allowed and 31st in Rush EPA/play allowed. Last season, they ranked 14th and 23rd in those categories, respectively. Their secondary is significantly compromised right now with safeties Brian Branch (Achilles), Kerby Joseph (knee), and Avonte Maddox (foot) all out.
The Jets’ defense has been good through two games, but the performance comes with an asterisk. They allowed 10 points in Week 1 to the Titans, who have one of the least explosive offenses in the league, with second-year QB Cam Ward still struggling to get his footing.
New York gave up 20 points during an overtime loss to the Packers in Week 2, but both offenses were hindered by rainy conditions.
The Jets defense will be tested playing inside the dome in Detroit. Lions QB Jared Goff has thrived there, throwing 96 TDs at home since joining the franchise. On the road, he has amassed only 59 TDs. Last year, the Jets allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league. Both of these offenses have the potential to shine in Week 3.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 3
Game Time, How to Watch: 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS
The Dolphins look like the worst team in the league after two weeks. They are lacking real NFL talent on both sides of the ball, and their defense has been particularly bad.
After a 27-13 defeat vs. the Raiders in Week 1, they lost 35-13 against the 49ers last week. They are 31st in dropback EPA/play allowed and have yet to record a sack. Opposing quarterbacks have completed a whopping 78.8% of their pass attempts against Miami.
Dolphins QB Malik Willis is not performing well in his first opportunity to lead an offense. He has completed just 58.0% of his passes with just 1 TD. Known for his rushing prowess, he has a modest 45 rushing yards and 1 TD on the ground.
With the unheralded WR trio of Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, and Chris Bell being his top wide receivers, it’s likely going to continue to be a struggle for him under center.
Things won’t get any easier for the Dolphins when they take on the Chiefs during Week 3. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes looks as good as ever, and the addition of RB Kenneth Walker III has provided a jolt for their offense.
Kansas City scored 31 points in their opener against the Broncos, then hung 33 points on the Colts last week. Walker combined for 290 rushing yards, 79 receiving yards, and 2 TDs in those matchups — leading the league in both rushing and receiving yards among RBs.
The Dolphins' offense is built around RB De’Von Achane, who has 31 rush attempts and 11 targets through two weeks. After averaging 5.7 yards per carry last year, he is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry with opposing defenses focusing on shutting him down this year.
Until Willis and Miami’s wide receivers prove they can be productive, teams will likely keep building their defensive game plan around stopping Achane. Per RotoWire, the Chiefs have limited running backs to 4.0 yards per carry.
If Achane can’t be productive, the Dolphins have no path to keep this game even remotely close, especially considering the Chiefs already have a +2 turnover differential, while Miami is at 0.
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Make NFL Week 3 Predictions on PrizePicks
The Chiefs and Bills will try to provide convincing Week 3 victories with their respective opponents struggling mightily out of the gate. The Jets-Lions matchup could deliver plenty of offensive fireworks, while the Patriots and Jaguars could produce a low-scoring battle between two of the AFC's contenders.
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