Best NFL Week 9 Survivor Picks: Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs Rebound?

For once, we had a fairly tame Week 8 in survivor pools. Though the Bengals made it hairy at home, their survival was joined by the Jaguars, Commanders, and Patriots as possible options. Only those who trusted a struggling Cowboys defense met their end.

Below, we’ll highlight the best Week 9 survivor picks for your win-or-go-home pools and walk through some strategies to get you to Week 10.

According to SurvivorGrid, the 49ers, as 9.5-point home favorites via PrizePicks, are the top expected value option of the week against the Raiders. The Chiefs, Seahawks, and Dolphins are all at least touchdown favorites on PrizePicks, too.

After you make your NFL Survivor Pool selections this week, you can run your picks on PrizePicks. With players, winners, and spreads on the board — plus endless ways to combine them — there’s never been a better time to Run Your Game.

Make NFL Week 9 picks on PrizePicks now — including teams to win!

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NFL Survivor Pool Week 9 Picks & Strategy

If you've survived to this point, there are a ton of options as some teams face rough attrition as the NFL season wears on. Choosing the right one? That's a harder discussion.

Some pools do not include Thursday games, which is why we don't feature them. Some of you may have moved on with the Jaguars already, but they've had several elite spots since Week 1. I don't have them left.

The Seahawks are switching to Drew Lock at QB but remain 8.5-point favorites over Gardner Minshew and the Cardinals. A backup will scare most off, but on a short week, it feels like getting a little cute.

Dallas showed it's pretty untrustworthy last week —  even if it's are 5.5-point favorite over the rebuilding Colts.

My two favorite picks this week are a balance of pedigree, motivation, and lack of elite spots moving forward. The ones I'm avoiding are teams that might have already been used, and it's not hard to envision both losing outright despite what the spread might say.

Best NFL Week 9 Survivor Picks: Two Teams to Target

Here are the top two teams to target for your Week 9 survivor picks.

Also listed are the winner payouts, spreads, and totals for each game via PrizePicks, where you can make your NFL picks and earn money if you’re right!

Make your Week 9 NFL picks on PrizePicks — including winners and spreads!

Payouts represent real-money earnings if a pick wins on PrizePicks. For example, a 2x represents a $100 entry on a correct pick that pays out $200.

Best Week 9 Survivor Pick: New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Last week's bizarre officiating put a cloud of ambiguity on the end result, but the Kansas City Chiefs got caught up in the Broncosverse. Beware a double-digit lead at Mile High against Bo Nix.

That — plus a road setback in Seattle — marked consecutive losses, but a 9.5-point spread this week is a decent test of faith that K.C. will turn it around against the Jets at home.

After all, the Chiefs are still above the league average in EPA/play (+0.10) and EPA/play allowed (+0.01), per nfelo. That's not even adjusting for a difficult schedule.

It speaks to New York's systemic issues that it posted 7.3 yards per play last week... and lost. Its defense has slipped to 24th in EPA/play allowed, and that's with a positive turnover differential (+2).

The best argument against the Chiefs in survivor is probably their Week 11 matchup. They'll host an Arizona team in total disarray after trading QB Jacoby Brissett, but the Cowboys and Bills are also projected to double-digit favorites that week.

I'd take the plunge if the next option isn't available.

Pick the Chiefs to win vs. the Jets on PrizePicks now!

Best Week 9 Survivor Pick: Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

The Detroit Lions have been in three favorable spots for survivor pools already, so they might already be crossed off if you've made it to this point. If not, they draw the Dolphins.

It's really been that simple for every team in the league except the Jets. Miami is still dead last in EPA/play ceded (+0.12) and only has moved to 26th on the offensive side despite QB Malik Willis and RB Ollie Gordon II's hot streaks.

S Brian Branch's return has made a pretty substantial difference for what was a struggling Lions D. They've allowed less than 5.0 yards per play in consecutive weeks.

If you're a believer in this type of stuff, there's also great motivation in this winnable matchup, as the Lions play with heavy hearts in light of Jack Campbell's serious neck injury. If anything, perhaps it alleviates concerns that they might fall asleep in this potential trap game.

Detroit plays New England at home in Week 10.

Pick the Lions to win vs. the Dolphins on PrizePicks now!

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Week 9 Survivor Picks to Avoid

Even if you’re not rolling with the picks above, consider avoiding these teams when making your survivor pool pick in Week 9.

These teams are favored on the spread on PrizePicks but may be riskier than they seem, making them not worth your survivor entry.

Survivor Pick to Avoid: Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

If you follow the column, I burned the 49ers in Week 6. If you didn't, this is realistically the best time to use them in what should be the shelf life for 2026 pools. They won't be double-digit favorites again until Week 17 against Philadelphia, who continue to falter weekly.

With that said, I'm not fully certain this is a good spot to assume the 49ers win for two key reasons.

First, the Raiders aren't bad. If I can target a team like the Jets and Dolphins, a 4-4 squad with losses to the Bills, Chiefs, Rams, and Patriots isn't the same level of opponent. Las Vegas is still 11th in offensive EPA/play and extremely dangerous in shootout environments.

Secondarily, the 49ers' injury report is still a mess out of the bye. WRs Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) and RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) weren't at full strength. It's become apparent that, even suiting up, none of these guys are locks to complete a game at this stage.

I used San Francisco against Washington, but Miami (Week 2) and Arizona (Week 3) were also probably pretty popular spots. With injury risk so high, this is a franchise I'll use early every year in survivor pools until they've turned over some of their older veterans.

Pick the 49ers to win vs. the Raiders on PrizePicks now!

Survivor Pick to Avoid: Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

The only reason I'm still picking in Week 9 is a re-buy, and I'm thankful it didn't come at the hands of the Houston Texans.

Houston is arguably the most disappointing team in the NFL. At 2-5, Houston hasn't had many "survivor" spots in these tight, late losses to Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas. In Week 7 against the Giants? That was a different story as a 10.5-point favorite.

This isn't the spot to play Houston. Even against the winless Chargers, the Texans have been unable to get key stops on defense and are 19th in passing EPA/play allowed. As sloppy and turnover-prone as QB Justin Herbert as been, that's a team on the road where L.A. could find a bit of momentum.

Plus, the Bolts are still fourth in the entire league in defensive EPA/play (-0.07). It's actually stunning they haven't beaten anyone, but the NFL's fourth-toughest schedule, per TeamRankings, has a lot to do with that.

This is a must-win game for the Texans; Jacksonville improved to 6-2 on Thursday. But the Chargers also seem mathematically due for better turnover bounces at some point. I want nothing to do with a game of this fashion.

Pick the Texans to win vs. the Chargers on PrizePicks now! 

Best Week 9 Survivor Pick: Detroit Lions

It's fitting to have a neck-and-neck race during election week, but I think I'd rather save Kansas City more than Detroit despite independently ranking them the same in terms of confidence.

K.C.'s Week 11 matchup with Arizona, which might feature a dejected Minshew or rookie Carson Beck at Arrowhead, is juicy.

Detroit's next golden opportunity is Week 14 against a Tennessee team that has proven to be scrappy with a road win (Indianapolis) and road cover (Cincinnati) in two of the last three weeks.

The cash might be handed out before that point. Plus, we know Detroit's division will provide minimal survivor opportunities, and Kansas City might have a favorable matchup with either the Raiders or Chargers down the road.

Make NFL Week 9 Picks on PrizePicks

One week at a time is the key. Don’t lose your NFL survivor pool in Week 9! Consider riding with the Chiefs or Lions as modest favorites this week and the best picks on the board.

Don’t wait until kickoff to lock in your NFL predictions — make Week 9 picks on NFL winners on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Just pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can predict NFL game winners, spreads, over/unders, and award futures, now available in 36 states — or combine them with players for even higher payouts. 

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