Best NFL Week 6 Survivor Picks: 49ers, Colts Stand Out Among Home Favorites

If you've navigated your survivor pool (even with a re-buy) to this point, you've done extremely well. Beyond the Chargers in Week 1, we've seen countless major upsets, including the Cowboys at home last week. Contrarian darts at the Commanders were also dashed by Jayden Daniels' inability to manage the clock.

Below, we’ll highlight the best Week 6 survivor picks for your win-or-go-home pools and walk through some strategies to get you to Week 6. 

According to SurvivorGrid, two of the undefeated teams remaining top the expected value list: the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. The L.A. Rams, who are week-high 12.5-point home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals, will also stand out to many.

Kansas City hosts the ailing Chargers in an AFC West showdown; Patrick Mahomes and company are 8.5-point favorites, according to PrizePicks Team Picks payouts. The Niners are 7.5-point favorites against Daniels and the Commanders on Monday night.

After you make your NFL Survivor Pool picks this week, you can run your picks on PrizePicks. With players, winners, and spreads on the board — plus endless ways to combine them — there’s never been a better time to Run Your Game on America’s No. 1 Sports Picks app.

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NFL Survivor Pool Week 6 Picks & Strategy

As we've established who the bottom-feeders of the NFL will be (even with the Dolphins on a bye week), it's getting a little easier to shorten the pool of teams we want to choose from.

However, balancing expected value, popularity, and a spot down the road is a tricky dynamic.

In addition to the three teams I mentioned in the intro, the New England Patriots are 7.0-point home favorites against the Jets, who won last week. The Indianapolis Colts are also 6.5-point home favorites against the Tennessee Titans, who definitely didn't.

With five teams in friendly venues and entering friendly matchups, you can't get different without getting dumb. Here's how I'm balancing risk in Week 6.

Best NFL Week 6 Survivor Picks: Two Teams to Target

Here are the top two teams to target for your Week 6 survivor picks, both of which enter as road favorites.

Also listed are the winner payouts, spreads, and totals for each game via PrizePicks, where you can make your NFL picks and earn money if you’re right!

Make your Week 6 NFL picks on PrizePicks — including winners and spreads!

Note: payouts represent real-money earnings if a pick wins on PrizePicks. For example, a 2x represents a $100 entry on a correct pick that pays out $200.

Best Week 6 Survivor Pick: Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

The may seem crazy to say about a San Francisco 49ers team that just got a massive road win against the defending champs, but this is definitely the time to burn them in survivor.

Many did in Week 2 against the lowly Dolphins, but if they're still available, the Niners will have already played four home games by Tuesday morning, and none of their remaining ones — Philadelphia, Minnesota, Seattle, or the L.A. Rams — profile as survivor spots if those teams are remotely healthy.

You don't really need me to tell you how good the undefeated Niner Gang are, ranking second in expected points added per play (0.185 EPA) on offense and third in EPA per play allowed on defense (-0.076 EPA), per RBSDM. Schedule critics (like myself) were silenced last week.

Overall, the Commanders have been competitive with QB Jayden Daniels in the lineup, posting a -9 point differential in five halves with him compared to a -25 differential in five halves with anyone else.

But this defense that is 23rd in EPA per play draws concern; it got torched by Jameis Winston last week and might be a little down on a head coach who blatantly cost them that tilt.

Pick the 49ers vs. the Commanders on PrizePicks now!

Best Week 6 Survivor Pick: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Untrustworthy teams in trustworthy spots for survivor contests is a sound strategy, and the Indianapolis Colts fits that to a tee — as even their own fans might argue.

Last week was a brutal spot for the Colts; I actually used the Steelers against Indy, as it returned from London compared to extended rest following a Thursday night tilt for Pittsburgh. Normal rest and a home date with the Titans could fix everything.

My lone bit of hesitation with them is that I just can't believe the Titans, who brought in Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll as a tandem, are this bad again. That tandem plus QB Cam Ward's arm talent is going to bite someone without the pass rush to exploit this horrible offensive line, and the Colts are indeed 32nd (last) in pass rush win rate, per ESPN.

But the numbers don't lie. Tennessee is 25th in total defensive EPA per play allowed, and its run for just 82.6 yards per game (28th in the NFL), according to TeamRankings. The Titans are the worst team in action on Sunday, with Miami on a bye.

Speaking of Miami, Indianapolis draws the Phins — at home — in Week 10. That, plus the third-highest projected pick rate at SurvivorGrid (17.9%), are two reasons to stay away from Indy if you still have the Niners available.

Pick the Colts to win vs. the Titans on PrizePicks now!

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Week 6 Survivor Picks to Avoid

Even if you’re not rolling with the picks above, avoid these teams when making your survivor pool pick in Week 6. These teams are favored on the spread on PrizePicks but may be riskier than they seem, making them not worth your survivor entry.

Survivor Pick to Avoid: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

I'm not putting the Rams on upset alert as this weekend's largest favorite, but their projected pick rate (39.1%) is probably going to be north of 50% in smaller pools, and everyone knows going in that this isn't a team performing at full song.

L.A. does have WR Puka Nacua back healthy and doing his thing, setting the record for most targets in a game (24) since the start of 2010 last week. He's a real problem for everyone, but Arizona's 31st-ranked pass defense (in EPA per play) wouldn't even be a sanctioned fight in combat sports.

But the defense, operating without Myles Garrett, got smashed for 7.6 yards per play by the Bills, they're on a short week, and left tackle Alaric Jackson was suspended for postgame hijinks earlier this week.

The Cardinals are far from good, but QB Jacoby Brissett has these random moments of brilliance with WR Michael Wilson and TE Trey McBride for a team that's dead last in yards per play (4.5). When they're off, they're way off. When they're on, this could quickly devolve into a shootout where an untrustworthy defense is facing the veteran late.

Just in case that happens, I'll save the Rams — SurvivorGrid's top remaining team in terms of expected value — for another day with games against the Chargers, Commanders, these Cardinals in Arizona, and the Buccaneers to come. There will be spots ahead.

Pick the Rams to win vs. the Cardinals on PrizePicks now!

Survivor Pick to Avoid: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

As the Jets showed last week, they're not completely dust as they have been in previous seasons.

Head coach Aaron Glenn seems to have some real weapons at his disposal on his side of the ball, including EDGE David Bailey. The rookie had 3 sacks and 4 QB hits in last week's win over the Browns, and he's helped propel the Jets to seventh overall in pass rush win rate.

Will Campbell was limited in practice on Wednesday for the Patriots, so even if he's active but not 100%, that's a great challenge.

Don't get me wrong; New England is still in a position to win this game handily. But, it does feel like buying the Patriots at an extreme high point after marquee wins against the Bills and Raiders.

Is QB Drake Maye fully beyond the nightmarish start? Can RB hamondre Stevenson get the ground game going alone with RB TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) banged up?

In a marquee divisional game where neither team wants to fall further behind Buffalo, the Pats do not stand out among several similarly profiled teams, laying a touchdown or so at home.

Plus, they have two remaining games with the Dolphins that could be good spots to target if 19.7% of the field does indeed burn the Patriots in this spot, as SurvivorGrid projects.

Pick the Patriots to win vs. the Jets on PrizePicks now! 

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Best Week 6 Survivor Pick: San Francisco 49ers

I'm guessing a decent percentage of readers alive in survivor contests burned the Niners in Week 2. I get it. The beginning of the year is challenging, so you took a great home team in Santa Clara against a talentless Miami squad.

But, if you didn't, this is a great spot to pivot off this week's chalk. San Fran doesn't have a home game left this year when they'll lay north of a touchdown, and injuries are always a concern with this squad. I want to use them sooner rather than later just in case something happened to QB Brock Purdy or RB Christian McCaffrey.

It is so tempting to just lock the Rams, who seem so well-positioned to even their record at 3-3, into the spot and move onto Week 7, but you could be making it harder on yourself when it comes to securing the ultimate prize.

Make NFL Week 6 Picks on PrizePicks

One week at a time is the key. Don’t lose your NFL survivor pool in Week 6! Ride with the 49ers or the Colts as big favorites this week — the best picks on the board.

Don’t wait until kickoff to lock in your NFL predictions — make picks on NFL winners on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Just pick NFL players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can predict NFL game winners, spreads, over/unders, and award futures, now available in 36 states — or combine them with players for even higher payouts. 

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