Best NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread: Rally Behind the Steelers, Chiefs?

Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season will feature 10 games on Sunday, October 18, beginning with another London game at 9:30 a.m. ET between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Before Sunday Night Football takes center stage, nine interesting NFL clashes grace our television screens.

Before Week 6 NFL games kick off on Sunday, which teams could be the most ideal picks to cover the spread?

Below, we’ll discuss our favorite NFL Week 6 picks against the spread, featuring winner, spread, and over/under payouts on PrizePicks.

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Best NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread, Game Predictions

Here are our best NFL Week 6 picks against the spread, including each game’s payouts on PrizePicks.

NFL Week 6’s top game predictions include the Bears, Steelers, and Chiefs.

PrizePicks payouts are live as of this writing and subject to change.

Bears vs. Falcons Prediction on Spread – Sunday, October 18

Time, How to Watch: 1 p.m. ET on FOX

QB Caleb Williams might make his return for the Chicago Bears in Week 6 after a three-game absence with a hamstring injury. Anticipation is building, as the star QB has been a full participant in practice ahead of Sunday’s showdown with the Atlanta Falcons.

Even if Williams isn’t at his best, he'd be a massive improvement over QB Tyson Bagent, who's started back-to-back games. Despite Bagent’s underwhelming play from under center, Chicago’s offense is still 12th in EPA/play (0.04) and ninth in success rate (46.9%) this season, per RBSDM.

QB Michael Penix Jr. has raised the ceiling of the Falcons’ offense, but Chicago's defense is 12th in dropback EPA/play (0.02) and sixth in dropback success rate (41.8%) allowed.

It also blitzes at the ninth-highest rate (35.3%), while Penix has the worst adjusted completion percentage (42.9%) and second-highest turnover-worthy play rate (11.1%) when under pressure, per PFF.

Since Ben Johnson became the head coach of the Bears, they have the sixth-best record against the spread (ATS) as a favorite (7-4), via Team Rankings. Meanwhile, the Falcons have the fifth-worst record ATS at home (3-7) since the start of 2025.

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Steelers vs. Buccaneers Prediction on Spread – Sunday, October 18

Time, How to Watch: 1 p.m. ET on CBS

The Pittsburgh Steelers have made RB Jaylen Warren a focal point of their offense amid the absence of RB Rico Dowdle, and it’s worked wonders. Of 31 RBs with 50+ attempts, Warren has the second-most YPC (5.9), third-most yards after contact per attempt (4.1), and seventh-most missed tackles forced (18).

Along with Warren adding another element to the offense, head coach Mike McCarthy is trusting QB Aaron Rodgers in their second stint together. Entering Week 6, the Steelers are fourth in neutral pass rate (60.0%) and Rodgers is 14th in air yards per attempt (8.4).

QB Jalon Daniels is making another start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6. While Daniels and RB Bucky Irving led the Bucs to an upset victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5, Dallas’ defense is dead last in EPA/play (0.18) and success rate (50.9%) allowed.

Aside from the Steelers limiting RB Jonathan Taylor to 45 rushing yards on 15 carries in Week 5 and potentially making the Buccaneers one-dimensional on Sunday, Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in 2026. Before defeating the Cowboys, the Buccaneers went 0-13 ATS in their previous 13 games.

Make your Steelers vs. Buccaneers prediction on PrizePicks!

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Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction on Spread – Sunday, October 18

Time, How to Watch: 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS

Divisional games can sometimes force all stats and metrics to be thrown out the window. However, the Los Angeles Chargers are a winless mess to begin the 2026 campaign, while the Kansas City Chiefs host them following a bye week.

With injuries along their offensive line and in the WR room, the Chargers' QB Justin Herbert-led offense is 32nd in EPA/play (-0.19) and 29th in success rate (38.4%).

Los Angeles’ defense is also ninth in dropback success rate (44.0%) and 18th in rushing success rate (39.6%) allowed, which isn’t ideal ahead of a matchup against RB Kenneth Walker III.

In the same 31-RB group with 50+ carries, Walker has the most YPC (6.2), second-most YAC/attempt (4.2), and most missed tackles forced (39). As a result of his efficient running and QB Patrick Mahomes playing at a high level, the Chiefs’ offense is fourth in EPA/play (0.16) and sixth in success rate (48.2%).

As a home favorite since the start of last year, Kansas City has the ninth-best record ATS (4-3-1). At the same time, Los Angeles has failed to cover in eight straight games dating back to last season.

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Make NFL Week 6 Predictions on PrizePicks

Among the NFL games available on PrizePicks, the Bears, Steelers, and Chiefs seem poised for potential success in Week 6.

Don’t wait until kickoff for this week of NFL action — make your 2026 NFL picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

With the season underway, just pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on NFL game winners, spreads, over/unders, and award futures, now available in 36 states.

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