Best NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread: Back the Bears on the Road?

The first full NFL Sunday is on our doorstep, with plenty of intriguing matchups across the league in Week 1. It’s a fresh start for each team, though we can use data from last season and offseason changes to make educated picks against the spread (ATS).

Will favorites come out on top, or will the underdogs prevail when it comes to covering the spread in Week 1?

Below, we’ll discuss our favorite NFL Week 1 picks against the spread in Week 1, featuring winner, spread, and over/under payouts on PrizePicks.

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Best NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

Here are our best NFL Week 1 picks against the spread, including each game's payouts on PrizePicks. NFL Week 1's predictions include the Bears, Steelers, and Jaguars.

PrizePicks payouts are live as of this writing and subject to change.

Bears vs. Panthers Prediction on Spread – Sunday, September 13

Time, How to Watch: 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX

Both the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers excelled at covering the spread in 2025. The Bears concluded last year with the fourth-best record ATS (12-7), while the Panthers had the sixth-best record ATS (11-7), per Team Rankings.

Considering that both of these teams are expected to field below-average defenses in 2026, there’s much more confidence in the Bears and head coach Ben Johnson moving the ball on offense.

During the 2025 campaign, QB Caleb Williams and Chicago owned the eighth-most EPA/play (0.08) and 11th-highest success rate (45.7%) on the offensive side of the ball, via RBSDM.

In comparison, QB Bryce Young and the Panthers had the seventh-lowest EPA/play (-0.03) and 15th-lowest success rate (43.7%) last year. Young is also averaging only 180.5 passing yards per game across his first two seasons playing under head coach Dave Canales.

After winning the ultra-competitive NFC North and making a push to the Divisional Round in 2025, the Bears may start the 2026 campaign on a positive note.

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Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction on Spread – Sunday, September 13

Time, How to Watch: 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX

The Atlanta Falcons are set to begin the Kevin Stefanski era on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. While QB Tua Tagovailoa was named the starter for the Falcons in the season opener, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer indicated that it seems that the decision was more about QB Michael Penix Jr. not being ready to start coming off injury rather than Tua winning the job.

That doesn’t instill much confidence in Tagovailoa and Atlanta’s offense to kick off the 2026 NFL season. Plus, Tua's status is unknown after being a limited participant at Thursday's practice.

On the other hand, the Steelers have reunited head coach Mike McCarthy and QB Aaron Rodgers, though both have made stops along the way since winning a Super Bowl together in 2011.

Nevertheless, we should expect a boost to Pittsburgh’s offense under McCarthy following inconsistent offensive play in recent years under head coach Mike Tomlin at the helm.

Just last season, the Steelers were tied with the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots for the second-highest cover rate (75.0%) as a home favorite. Pittsburgh was 3-1 ATS in that split.

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Browns vs. Jaguars Prediction on Spread – Sunday, September 13

Time, How to Watch: 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS

There’s certainly a decent amount of risk laying these many points in a Week 1 matchup. However, everything points toward the Cleveland Browns being completely overmatched against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Regardless of who starts under center between QB Deshaun Watson and QB Shedeur Sanders, no team had a worse dropback EPA (-0.21) and dropback success rate (35.9%) than the Browns last season. Even with Todd Monken taking over for Stefanski as head coach, it’s tough to project even an average offense with Watson leading the offense.

While Cleveland added EDGE Jared Verse via trade, they lost All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett in the same trade, which likely puts a smile on the face of QB Trevor Lawrence. With Lawrence operating the controls under head coach Liam Coen, the Jaguars had the 10th-most dropback EPA (0.11) and 10th-highest dropback success rate (47.9%) a season ago.

Despite the sizable spread, Jacksonville had the highest cover rate ATS as home favorites (80.0%) in 2025, compared to Cleveland having the lowest (28.6%). Additionally, the Jaguars went a perfect 3-0 ATS when favored by 5 or more points last year.

Take your Browns vs. Jaguars pick on the spread on PrizePicks!

Make NFL Week 1 Predictions on PrizePicks

There are a handful of enticing games to watch in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. Given their matchups and advantages, the Bears, Steelers, and Jaguars are in stellar spots to perhaps make noise in their season openers.

Don’t wait until kickoff for this week of NFL action — make your NFL picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

With games returning, just pick NFL players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on NFL game winners, spreads, over/unders, and award futures, now available in 36 states.

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