The 2026 NCAA Tournament gets started on Thursday, and everyone will be tuning in to see which team will pull off first-round upsets
Below, we’ll break down why Texas vs. BYU and Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's are two potential upset picks for Thursday night's NCAA Tournament games, including spread picks for both games.
When filling out your brackets, taking a couple of double-digit seeds to advance beyond the first round is a popular strategy.
After a lack of upsets in last year’s NCAA Tournament, a little bit of chaos in the 2026 tournament would certainly add some intrigue in the race for the National Championship.
Where will we find the upsets in Thursday’s NCAA Tournament games in the late window?
Make your NCAA Tournament picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on upsets, spreads, and totals!
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Texas vs. BYU: First Round Upset Pick, Spread, Over/Under
Time: 7:25 p.m. ET | TV: TBS
Although No. 11 seed Texas needed a game-winning shot to beat NC State in the play-in to face BYU in the First Round, the Longhorns did have impressive wins over 4-seed Alabama, 8-seed Georgia, and 5-seed Vanderbilt during the regular season.
Texas also has an experienced head coach in Sean Miller. Miller has extensive tourney experience with Xavier and Arizona, earning a career 23-13 record in the NCAA Tournament.
Putting up points isn’t an issue for Texas, but they’ll need to defend if they want to upset BYU on Thursday. The Longhorns are 33rd in points per game (82.2), while the Cougars are 23rd (83.9), so these offenses aren’t too far apart in efficiency.
Just two years ago, as a No. 6 seed in 2024, BYU was upset by No. 11 seed Duquesne. This should give Texas hope entering the First Round matchup.
Texas vs. BYU Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
Texas enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as slight 1.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.17x payout ($100 entry pays $217) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
BYU is the favorite, with a 1.69x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your college basketball picks in 35 states.
- Spread: BYU -1.5 (1.72x payout)
- Over/Under: 156.5 (1.78x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Texas 2.17x | BYU 1.69x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Why Could Texas Upset BYU in the First Round?
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Texas vs. BYU NCAA Tournament prediction for Thursday, March 19, on PrizePicks – including why BYU could be on upset alert.
- Despite BYU sitting at 16th in adjusted offensive efficiency (124.7) in Bart Torvik’s rankings, Texas is 23rd in adjusted offensive efficiency (123.2).
- The Longhorns excel at crashing the glass, ranking 32nd in offensive rebound rate (35.7%) and 28th in rebound rate allowed (26.7%).
- At the same time, the Cougars are 124th in rebound rate allowed (29.3%).
- BYU does have expected NBA first-round pick AJ Dybantsa (25.3 PGG, 6.7 RPG) leading the charge, but Texas has four players averaging double-digit points per game.
- That includes a dynamic front court pairing of F Dailyn Swain (17.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and C Matas Vokietaitis (15.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG).
- The Longhorns have performed well as an underdog, going 9-5 against the spread (ATS) in those spots.
- On the other hand, the Cougars are 12-14 ATS when playing as the favorites.
- According to ESPN’s BPI, Texas has the second-best chance (37%) to pull off an upset in the First Round among the No. 11 seeds.
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Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's: First Round Upset Pick, Spread, Over/Under
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET | TV: truTV
To continue the theme of backing an SEC school to upset their opponent in the Round of 64, the No. 10 seed Texas A&M Aggies can put the No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels on upset alert today.
There isn’t a lack of experience for the Aggies entering the tourney, as seven of their top eight scorers are seniors. This could come in handy against a Gaels lineup that doesn’t have a senior in the starting five.
During last year’s tournament, Saint Mary’s narrowly defeated No. 10 seed Vanderbilt as a No. 7 seed, 59-56. As for 2024, the Gaels were shocked by No. 12 seed Grand Canyon as a No. 5 seed.
Additionally, there were two 10-seed teams to defeat a 7-seed in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament in 2025. New Mexico took down Marquette, while Arkansas beat Kansas.
Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's Spread, Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
Texas A&M enters Thursday’s NCAA Tournament first-round game as 2.5-point underdogs, returning a 2.27x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they pull off an outright upset.
Saint Mary's is the favorite, with a 1.61x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Saint Mary's -2.5 (1.78x payout)
- Over/Under: 148.5 (2x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Texas A&M 2.27x | Saint Mary's 1.61x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Why Could Texas A&M Upset Saint Mary's in the First Round?
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's NCAA Tournament first-round prediction for Thursday, March 19, on PrizePicks – including why No. 7 seed Saint Mary's could be on upset alert.
- At a neutral site, Saint Mary’s has gone 1-4 against the spread (ATS) this season.
- When playing as an underdog, Texas A&M is 6-3 ATS.
- Turnovers can be an issue for the Gaels, as they are 158th in offensive turnover rate (16.4%).
- Along with having the 35th-most steals per game (8.1), the Aggies are 83rd in defensive turnover rate (18.3%).
- While Saint Mary’s is efficient from beyond the arc with the 12th-highest three-point percentage (38.6%), Texas A&M is also 44th in three-point percentage (36.2%).
Make NCAA Tournament Upset Picks on PrizePicks
Can Texas be one of the next Cinderella teams to advance beyond the First Round? Will Texas A&M benefit from their edge in experience and force Saint Mary’s into making mistakes?
The NCAA Tournament late window starts at 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT, continuing the first round of the tourney.
You can make your 2026 NCAA Tournament picks for winners on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money.
Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
