The last four automatic qualifiers and the last four at-large teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament collide in four games over Tuesday and Wednesday. The annual tradition held in Dayton, Ohio, begins today, March 17, with the Texas Longhorns (18-14) and the NC State Wolfpack (20-13) battling at 9:15 p.m. ET on truTV.
Who will have the luck of the Irish on St. Patrick’s Day, advancing to the first round of the NCAA Tournament? Let’s analyze the matchup and make a Texas vs. NC State prediction on the spread for Tuesday.
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Texas vs. NC State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Both teams have struggled with 1-5 records over the last six games. That’s translated to putrid against the spread (ATS) records in the last 10 matchups, with Texas 3-7 and NC State 2-8.
The two programs met for a non-conference battle on November 26, with the Longhorns reigning supreme in a 102-97 final as 1.5-point favorites. Texas also won 2024-25's matchup, 63-59. Will the Longhorns’ success continue for tonight’s college basketball picks?
Texas vs. NC State Spread, Over/Under
Similar to the regular-season clash, NC State is favored vs. Texas as 3.5-point favorites, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, tonight’s total is 157.5 for the over/under.
- Spread: NC State Wolfpack -3.5
- Over/Under: 157.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Texas 1.92x | NC State 1.88x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Texas vs. NC State Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/17/26
According to Bart Torvik, NC State ranks 38th in efficiency, while Texas is 45th. Both teams lean on exceptional offenses, with the Wolfpack 20th and the Longhorns ranked 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. Furthermore, Texas (126th) and NC State (90th) rank outside the top 85 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
A high total could be in the picture, as the Wolfpack post 83.7 PPG (91st percentile) and the Longhorns record 82.6 PPG (91st percentile).
Bart Torvik puts NC State in the 76th percentile for the quickest adjusted tempos, while Texas ranks in the 53rd percentile for the slowest paces. In a tight contest, which team can play its style on Tuesday night?
The Longhorns have a negative turnover differential, averaging 10.6 turnovers per game (74th percentile) while forcing only 9.3 per contest (sixth percentile). This is perhaps the Wolfpack’s greatest strength, posting only 9.2 turnovers per game (96th percentile) and forcing 12.8 per matchup (80th percentile).
NC State G Quadir Copeland records 1.7 steals per game and leads the squad with a 2.65 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
If Copeland & Co. are creating havoc, forced turnovers can help quicken the pace with fastbreak chances, and that’s in line with how the Wolfpack want to play. Texas logged 12.5 turnovers per game in its last two games, surpassing its 10.6 season average.
Make Texas vs. NC State Picks on PrizePicks
Will NC State’s ability to create turnovers be the difference in a potential tight matchup vs. Texas? Who will snap their cold streak and advance to the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket?
Make your Texas vs. NC State and NCAA Tournament predictions at PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
