Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, September 23

Wednesday, September 23 brings us a packed slate of baseball, with games beginning in the afternoon and running well into the night. With the regular season winding down, plenty of baseball's biggest sluggers are stepping into the box today.

We'll use hard-hit rates, barrel rates, pitcher splits, batted-ball tendencies, pitch matchups, and weather to identify three hitters with strong home run cases.

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have particularly intriguing matchups on today's schedule.

Below, we'll break down three of the best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, including what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 23, on PrizePicks now.

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Best Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, September 23

Hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in sports. With a little bit of research, though, we can use a wide variety of trends to determine which mashers are primed to circle the bases today.

How hard is each player hitting the ball, and are those balls being hit on the ground or in the air? How does the pitcher-batter matchup look? Is weather impacting the game? What about ballpark dimensions? That's just the beginning when it comes to things to consider for home run predictions.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are Demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
2. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
3. White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
4. Rockies C Hunter Goodman
5. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
6. Mets LF Juan Soto
7. Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
8. Phillies 1B/RF Bryce Harper
9. Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
10. Rays 3B Junior Caminero

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Rockies C Hunter Goodman

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly (28 GS, 9-14, 4.92 xFIP, 39.3% FB%, 37.9% hard-hit rate)

MLB Weather Report: 73 degrees, clear skies, 10 mph winds blowing left to right

• The Rockies slugger owns a 14.7% barrel rate, comfortably above the league average.
• He also does a good job of getting the ball in the air against right-handed pitching. He has a 48.3% fly ball rate against righties compared to 38.1% against left-handed pitching.
• Kelly has given up plenty of long balls and currently owns a 1.61 HR/9, the highest rate of his career.
• The Diamondbacks righty profiles poorly against Goodman; Kelly gives up hard contact 37.3% of the time vs. right-handed hitting, as well as a 39.3% fly ball rate.
• Goodman has a home run against Kelly in his 15 career at-bats against him.  
• Well-struck fly balls at Coors Field get an enormous boost due to the thin air a mile above sea level. With a projected total around 11 runs for the night, this is one of the most favorable offensive environments on the slate.

Add Hunter Goodman + Rockies to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Dodgers SS Mookie Betts

Padres vs. Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. ET

Padres Starting Pitcher: Robbie Ray (29 GS, 13-8, 4.90 xFIP, 49.9% FB%, 35.9% hard-hit rate)

MLB Weather Report: 79 degrees, clear skies, neutral 6 mph wind

• Betts has been scorching hot over the last 10 games, leading the Dodgers with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs while hitting .359.
• He also enters this matchup with tremendous recent success against left-handed pitching. Since August 24, Betts is slashing .371/.450/.657 against LHP, good for a ridiculous 1.107 OPS.
• Betts has also historically handled Ray extremely well. He's 4-for-12 with 2 home runs against him in his career with a line of .333/.467/.833.
• Ray has allowed 22 home runs with a 13.9% HR/FB rate and 14.8% barrel rate. His 4.81 FIP also suggests more damage has been possible than his 3.60 ERA indicates.
• Ray owns a terrible 49.9% fly ball rate vs. right-handers, a beautiful sight for a locked-in Mookie Betts.
• Betts is averaging a 90.2 mph exit velocity while producing an 8.0% barrel rate, up from 5.5% in 2025.
• His power against fastballs is especially relevant against Ray, as Betts has produced a .563 SLG against four-seamers to go with a 43.2% hard-hit clip.
• Mookie has slugged the ball at home all season, posting a 132 wRC+ at Dodger Stadium compared to a 95 wRC+ on the road.

Add Mookie Betts + Dodgers to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Angels SS Zach Neto

Angels vs. Athletics – 9:40 p.m. ET

Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (28 GS, 4-14, 4.98 xFIP, 45.2% FB%, 33.7% hard-hit rate)

MLB Weather Report: 80 degrees, clear skies, no relevant wind

• Neto has already launched 26 home runs and is one away from setting a new career high.
• His profile includes a quality 11.5% barrel rate, 37.5% hard-hit rate, and 22.8-degree average launch angle.
• He draws a glorious matchup against Springs, who owns an atrocious 2.15 HR/9, by far the worst of his career. Springs has ceded 33 homers and an 18.3% HR/FB ratio.
• The quality of contact Springs allows is even more concerning. He's surrendered a 20.2% barrel rate and a 45.2% fly ball rate, which results in a recipe for the other team leaving the yard a lot.
• Neto has also been much more prolific on the road, where 17 of his 26 home runs have come and he's hitting .265 compared to just .208 at home. Springs' HR/9 spikes to 2.6 at home.
• Sutter Health Park is one of the league's most favorable parks for right-handed home runs, and THE BAT currently ranks it No. 1 for RHB homers on today's slate.

Add Zach Neto + Angels to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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It’s a chilly day across the country, with cold temps and winds blowing in at many ballparks. Not for our three sluggers, though.

Goodman will chase his 40th home run in what may be the best pure-hitting environment of the day. Betts has been red-hot recently and gets a matchup against Robbie Ray, whom he's already taken deep twice. Neto, meanwhile, takes his talents on the road, where he has had major success.

Don't wait until first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right.

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