Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, September 16

Wednesday, September 16 brings us a glorious 15-game slate with every MLB franchise taking to the diamond. Plenty of home run sluggers are stepping into the box, and we'll use hard-hit rates, weather, pitcher/batter splits, and more to analyze which players have the best chance to leave the yard. 

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Wednesday, September 16 on PrizePicks now.

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Best Home Run Picks Today – Wednesday, September 16

We all know hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. However, with a little bit of research, we can use various trends to determine which mashers may be primed to circle the bases today.

How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are their batted balls on the ground or in the air? Do they match up well against the pitcher on the mound? What's the wind like? That's just the tip of the iceberg regarding things to consider.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are Demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Yankees OF Aaron Judge
2. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
3. Giants 1B Rafael Devers
4. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
5. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
6. Mets OF Juan Soto
7. Rockies C Hunter Goodman
8. Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
9. Padres RF/2B Fernando Tatis Jr.
10. Rays 3B Junior Caminero

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Tigers OF Riley Greene

Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays – 3:07 p.m. ET

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer (15 GS, 2-8, 5.38 xFIP, 31.5% hard-hit, 53.9 FB%)

MLB Weather Report: Game played in a dome

• Greene has hit seven of his 20 home runs since the All-Star break despite having only 128 at-bats during that span.
• His power production has jumped noticeably in the second half, as Greene owns a .539 slugging percentage and .260 ISO since the break compared to a .462 SLG and .174 ISO beforehand.
• He's been especially hot recently, hitting .377 with an absurd .736 SLG and 4 home runs thus far in September.
• Scherzer has surrendered 9 home runs to left-handed hitters in just 40.2 innings, which works out to an enormous 2.00 HR/9.
• Scherzer’s worst split has been at home vs. lefties, where he is getting hammered to the tune of a 6.16 xFIP on the back of a mammoth 2.59 HR/9.
• Greene has an awesome Statcast profile for power. He owns a 14.5% barrel rate, 41.5% hard-hit rate, and 43.6% FB rate.

Add Riley Greene to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Orioles 1B Pete Alonso

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets – 7 p.m. ET

Mets Starting Pitcher: Robert Stock (7 GS, 1-3, 4.96 xFIP, 42.4% hard-hit, 39.4% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 67 degrees, clear skies, 5-6 mph southeast wind

• After a somewhat choppy start to the season, the Polar Bear has long reestablished himself as one of the game's premier power hitters.
• Alonso has been crushing right-handed pitching all season. He's hit 27 of his 36 home runs against RHP and owns a .523 SLG vs. right-handers compared to a .447 mark against lefties.
• His Statcast profile is equally as ridiculous, evidenced by a 47.0% hard-hit rate, 36.0% FB rate, 13.1% barrel rate, and 93.8 mph average exit velocity.
• Alonso has also been red hot for a couple of months now. He owns a 161 wRC+ in the second half of the season after earning a 131 wRC+ in the first half.
• Stock's biggest red flag is his batted-ball profile. He has induced only a 36.4% ground-ball rate, leaving far too many balls up to be crushed in the air at a 39.4% FB rate and 42.2% hard-hit rate.
• Stock has also shown some reverse splits, allowing a 5.39 xFIP to right-handed hitters but a 4.74 xFIP against lefties.

Add Pete Alonso to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Padres RF Fernando Tatis Jr.

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET

Rockies Starting Pitcher: Mason Adams (4 GS, 0-0, 3.65 xFIP, 50.0% hard-hit, 40.9% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 57 degrees, a light 3 mph wind blowing right to left, chance of rain

• Tatis has already gone deep twice in Denver this week, and Tuesday's homer marks his second in consecutive games and his third in his last four outings. He owns a 173 wRC+ in the second half (102 in the first half).
• His 2026 batted-ball profile is as legit as they come. Tatis owns a 42.2% hard-hit rate, 33.3% FB rate, 11.7% barrel rate, and 92.3 mph average exit velocity.
• Adams has pitched well enough to post a 3.38 ERA through his first 18.2 major league innings, but the underlying contact numbers are much more concerning. Opposing RHH have produced a massive 50.0% hard-hit rate against him alongside a 40.9% FB rate.
• Adams' 93.2 mph average exit velocity allowed is also far above the league average, while his .458 xSLG shows that the quality of contact against him has been considerably more dangerous than his ERA might suggest.
• The Rockies righty has allowed a home run in all four of his starts and owns an absurd 3.00 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.

Add Fernando Tatis Jr. to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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The theme of today’s HR picks is heat checks. Riley Greene, Pete Alonso, and Fernando Tatis Jr. all struggled (relatively) through the first half of their seasons but have each come to scorching-hot life down the stretch. Can these sluggers stay hot in dream matchups for them this Wednesday?

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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