Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, September 24

Breathe those first few whiffs of fall air in, baseball fans, as it’s about to get crazy.

With the 2026 MLB season winding down, contending teams are looking to gear up for the real stretch run of the campaign, while those on the fringe are eyeing last-second pushes into the playoffs and struggling clubs merely aim to play spoiler. There’s a 12-game slate to take advantage of on Thursday, and it could see plenty of home runs get slugged. 

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Thursday, September 24, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 24 on PrizePicks now.

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Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, September 24

Given that seven players have already hit 40+ home runs on the year and another two are within striking distance of that mark, fans may think it’s easy to crush a ball and send it out of the park. On the contrary, there’s so much more that goes into a very difficult feat.

First of all, who’s pitching in a given at-bat? What’s the weather like, and how about outfield dimensions? On the hitter side, are there recent trends like exit velocity, barrel rate, and launch angle that can be used to help determine who might go yard? That’s what we’ll set out to decide on Thursday. 

Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. Home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at the time of writing.

1. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
2. Braves 1B Matt Olson
3. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
4. Rockies C Hunter Goodman
5. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
6. Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
7. Padres 3B Manny Machado
8. Mariners LF Randy Arozarena

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Braves 1B Matt Olson

Reds vs. Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET

Reds Starting Pitcher: Brady Singer

MLB Weather Report: 71 degrees, clear skies, 8 mph east-northeast wind

• Olson is enjoying a resurgence in his age-32 season, crushing 41 HRs with a .256 ISO that’s his best since 2023.
• The combination of a healthy 14.5% barrel rate and a 17.7-degree average launch angle (his highest since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign) has Olson clobbering many fly balls out of the park.
• Don’t tell Olson he’s aging — he clearly won’t pay attention. His 49.8% fast-swing rate and 74.8 mph bat speed are both tops for him in three years of Statcast tracking. 
• Olson resides in the 93rd percentile or better in average exit velocity (92.4 mph), hard-hit rate (51.8%), xSLG (.507), and more. 
• Singer has struggled immensely in the power allowance department, giving up a 43.0% hard-hit clip (14th percentile) and a 10.1% barrel rate (ninth percentile). 

Add Matt Olson + Braves to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Reds SS Elly De La Cruz

Reds vs. Braves – 7:15 p.m. ET

Braves Starting Pitcher: Tyler Mahle

MLB Weather Report: 71 degrees, clear skies, 8 mph east-northeast wind

• De La Cruz enters Thursday’s play boasting a career-best .232 ISO and .527 SLG, as well as a personal record 140 wRC+.
• The fourth-year infielder has never had a better exit velocity (94.7 mph), barrel rate (15.9%), or hard-hit rate (53.8%) in his Reds tenure.
• Not many players swing the bat harder than De La Cruz; his 76.2 mph bat speed sits in the 92nd percentile.
• Mahle has struggled a bit with the long ball in 2026, posting a 1.13 HR/9 to go with an ugly 89.6 mph average exit velocity (25th percentile).
• The slider might be Mahle’s worst pitch, especially with opponents slugging .514 against it. De La Cruz has seen the offering on 8.2% of pitches this year, demolishing it to the tune of a .653 SLG. 

Add Elly De La Cruz + Reds to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Mariners LF Randy Arozarena

Angels vs. Mariners – 9:40 p.m. ET

Angels Starting Pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez

MLB Weather Report: Played in a dome

• This is the first time since 2020 that Arozarena has owned an ISO of .200 or higher. He’s setting full-season career-high marks in multiple spots elsewhere.
• The former Tampa Bay Rays star has been tremendous in the month of September, slugging .575 and posting both a 1.015 OPS and a 191 wRC+.
• Arozarena’s 90.9 mph average exit velocity and .351 xwOBA rank in the respective 81st and 86th percentiles.
• In addition to holding a career HR/9 of 1.25, Rodriguez’s mark is up to 1.44 in 2026 and 2.05 in September. 
• Rodriguez occupies the third percentile in hard-hit rate at 45.1%, also letting opponents barrel him up 8.9% of the time (23rd percentile). 

Add Randy Arozarena + Mariners to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

There’s no shortage of options for your late-season MLB home run predictions on PrizePicks. With that said, the trio of Olson, De La Cruz, and Arozarena could be in intriguing spots to hit a jack on Thursday night.

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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