Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, September 17

Thursday, September 17 brings us a nine-game slate with baseball running from early afternoon in Pittsburgh to late night in Anaheim. Plenty of home run sluggers are stepping into the box today, and we'll use hard-hit rates, weather, pitcher/batter splits, and more to analyze which players may have the best chance to leave the yard. 

PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s schedule.

Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.

Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 17, on PrizePicks now.

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Best Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, September 17

We all know hitting a home run is one of the hardest things to do in professional sports. However, with a little bit of research, we can use some trends to determine which mashers are primed to circle the bases today.

How hard is each player hitting the ball, and are their batted balls on the ground or in the air? Do they match up well against the pitcher on the mound? What's the weather like, or what are the dimensions of the ballpark? That’s just the beginning for breaking down home run projections.

Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are Demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.

Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.

1. Reds SS Elly De La Cruz
2. Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
3. White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
4. Tigers OF Riley Greene
5. Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
6. Mets LF Juan Soto
7. Rockies C Hunter Goodman
8. Phillies 1B/RF Bryce Harper
9. Padres RF/2B Fernando Tatis Jr.
10. Rays 3B Junior Caminero

Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.

Padres RF/2B Fernando Tatis Jr.

San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies – 3:10 p.m. ET

Rockies Starting Pitcher: Tanner Gordon (10 GS, 1-4, 4.39 xFIP, 42.8% hard-hit, 44.8% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 79 degrees, 3 MPH wind blowing right to left, chance of rain.

• Tatis has found his power stroke. He's homered twice already this series in back-to-back games in Denver and has racked up three long balls over his last six outings.
• Tatis has a better hard-hit rate (41.8% vs. 39.8%) and a better fly ball rate (33.3% vs. 26.7%) against RHP than against LHP.
• The Dominican slugger has been mashing the ball recently too, boasting a 173 wRC+ in the second half of the season compared to his 102 wRC+ mark in the first half.
• Now he faces off against RHP Tanner Gordon, who owns a 1.66 HR/9 on the year and an elevated 2.38 mark at home.
• Gordon is giving up hard contact (42.8%) and fly balls (44.8%) in droves this season and profiles poorly against a power right-handed hitter like Tatis.

Add Fernando Tatis Jr. to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Mets LF Juan Soto

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets – 7:15 p.m. ET

Phillies Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola (30 GS, 6-10, 3.89 xFIP, 36.7% hard-hit, 44.3% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: 77 degrees, clear skies, 10 mph wind blowing out to LF

• Soto catches a dream matchup tonight against a pitcher he has had a ton of success against. Soto is 13-for-46 (.283) with 5 home runs off Nola in his career.
• Nola owns a 1.9 HR/9 this season, the highest mark of his career. His worst split is also on the road against left-handed hitters, where he owns a 4.09 xFIP.
• Nola is giving up more hard-hit balls (36.7% vs. 29.9%) and fly balls (44.3% vs. 35.9%) to left-handed hitters than to right-handed hitters.
• Soto steps up with an awesome batted-ball profile for this matchup, evidenced by a 44.5% hard-hit rate and 43.9% fly ball rate against RHP.
• On a warm day with the wind blowing out to LF, it could give Soto the little extra juice he needs to get one over the fence this evening.

Add Juan Soto to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Astros DH Yordan Alvarez

Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros – 7:15 p.m. ET

Royals Starting Pitcher: Seth Lugo (30 GS, 7-8, 4.46 xFIP, 39.7% hard-hit, 36.7% FB%)

MLB Weather Report: Game played under a roof

• Alvarez has simply been a monster all season. He owns a 196 wRC+ and .302 ISO against RHP.
• He's had success against RHP Seth Lugo in the past, going 4-for-11 with a long ball in his career.
• Alvarez has been even better at home, having slugged 22 of his 39 HRs in Houston and hitting .362 at Daikin Park compared to .256 on the road. His home wRC+ against RHP is an absurd 241.
• Lugo is giving up 1.51 HR/9 on the road this season compared to 0.63 figure in Kansas City.
• He is also surrendering a 39.7% hard-hit rate and 36.7% fly ball rate to LHB. That is troubling against Alvarez, who's tattooing RHP to the tune of a 51.5% hard-hit rate and 49.8% fly ball rate.

Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

Despite only nine games on the docket, we have some premier sluggers in big-time matchups tonight. Fernando Tatis Jr. gets a dream matchup in a hitter's haven at Coors Field, while Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez each have incredible batted-ball profiles and face pitchers they have taken deep before.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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