Best MLB Home Run Picks, Predictions Today on PrizePicks – Thursday, July 30

The penultimate day of July features a 10-game MLB slate, including four daytime games. With afternoon games in Tampa, Minnesota, Chicago, and St. Louis before the evening slate begins, there should be plenty of opportunities for home runs across the league in the dog days of summer.

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to make your MLB picks today. Some hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run picks from users for Thursday, July 30, including who makes the best potential target for home run predictions today.

Make Home Run predictions on PrizePicks today

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Best Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, July 30

There are plenty of factors to consider when projecting home runs, including the opposing pitcher, ballpark, weather, bat speed, barrel quality, and swing path.

Which players could be in good positions to hit a home run on Thursday, July 30? Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.

1. Giants 1B Rafael Devers 
2. Padres 3B Manny Machado
3. Braves C Drake Baldwin
4. Cubs OF Pete Crow-Armstrong
5. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
6. Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras
7. Nationals 1B Luis Garcia Jr.

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including MLB weather reports from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.‍

Royals OF Jac Caglianone

Game: Royals at Twins, 1:40 p.m. ET

Twins Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober (7-3, 4.76 xFIP, 10.9% HR/FB)

MLB Weather Report: 87 degrees, clear, wind 9 to 10 MPH

• 75% of Jac Caglianone’s 16 home runs in his career are classified as “no-doubters” by MLB Statcast, which means they would’ve cleared the fence in all 30 stadiums. That ranks third among all players with at least 10 home runs. 
• Per Statcast, the Royals slugger ranks in the 96th percentile among MLB hitters in exit velo and 98th in hard hit percentage, impacting the ball at 93.1 mph with a hard hit percentage of 55.7%.  
• Although he has not homered vs. the Twins, his .344 BA against them is the highest of any opponent he has faced more than once. 
• Twins starter Bailey Ober is in the 29th percentile in chase percentage — meaning he's not getting chases out of the zone, and has given up 6 HR over his last 5 starts. 

Add Jac Caglianone Home Run to your PrizePicks MLB Lineup

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Yankees 1B Ben Rice

Game: Yankees at White Sox – 2:10 p.m. ET

White Sox Starting Pitcher: Sean Burke (7-5, 3.72 xFIP, 9.8% HR/FB)

MLB Weather Report: 80 degrees, Clear, SE winds at 4 MPH

• Ben Rice’s 31 home runs are tied for third most in the majors, behind Houston’s Yordan Alvarez and Philly’s Kyle Schwarber. 
• Rice was selected to play in the Home Run Derby with 31 long balls in the first half of the season. He finished with 7 dingers in the event and has 2 homers in 12 games since. 
• The Dartmouth product’s .305 ISO and .596 slugging percentage are both second in the majors behind Alvarez. 
• The Yankees lefty ranks in the 94th percentile among MLB hitters in Barrel rate at 15.7% and 94th in Sweet-Spot percentage at 40.4%. 

Add Ben Rice Home Run to your PrizePicks MLB Lineup

Padres 3B Manny Machado

Game: Giants vs. Padres – 9:40 p.m. ET

Giants Starting Pitcher: Robbie Ray

MLB Weather Report: 73 degrees, clear skies, 4 to 5 MPH winds out of the west

• The Padres slugger leads the team with 23 home runs in 105 games after finishing all of last season with 27 homers. 
• Machado has 20 career homers vs. the Giants, sixth-most vs. any opponent in his career.
• The former Oriole’s bat speed is 74.6 mph, ranked in the 77th percentile, while his average exit velo is 90.5 mph in the 73rd percentile.
• Machado has 3 homers in 22 career ABs vs. Giants starter Robbie Ray. Ray has allowed 15 home runs in 20 starts this season.

Add Manny Machado Home Run to your PrizePicks MLB Lineup

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

These home run hitters highlight a 10-game MLB slate on Thursday on PrizePicks. Who will go deep? Can Ben Rice continue to add to his HR total after narrowly missing one last night? Can lefty Jac Caglianone launch one out in Minnesota?

Don’t wait until first pitch on Thursday — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 MLB season.