Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Monday, September 14

As the MLB regular season winds down, postseason races are only beginning to heat up. With some tight-knit standings for both division and Wild Card spots, every at-bat carries plenty of importance. Which stars could rise to the occasion in Monday night’s 10-game slate?

Here at PrizePicks, we have plenty of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Monday, September 14, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

Make your MLB home run picks for Monday, September 14 on PrizePicks now.

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Best MLB Home Run Picks Today – Monday, September 14

The battle for the home run crown is on, and three players have already reached the 40-homer mark on the year. Several others are within striking distance, and seemingly countless sluggers are putting together productive seasons of their own. As the summer heat persists for a couple more weeks before the fall, double-digit baseballs figure to travel out of the park on Monday.

Some players put themselves in better positions to swat jacks than others. Elements out of their control like ballpark dimensions and the opposing pitcher make for a challenge, but the best hitters can optimize their swing paths, speeds, and launch angles to increase their chances. 

Which players could be in good positions to swat a homer on Monday? Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. Home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at the time of writing.

1. Cubs CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
2. Braves 1B Matt Olson
3. Orioles 1B Pete Alonso
4. Rockies C Hunter Goodman
5. White Sox 3B Miguel Vargas
6. Cardinals RF Jordan Walker
7. Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto
8. Mets LF Juan Soto

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Rockies C Hunter Goodman

Padres vs. Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET

Padres Starting Pitcher: Casey Mize

MLB Weather Report: 81 degrees, partly cloudy, 6 mph north-northwest wind

• Goodman is enjoying the power season of his career, evidenced by a .280 ISO, .522 SLG, and 38 homers entering Monday’s play.
• The star backstop has struggled in September but was amazing in July and August, owning wOBA marks of .396 and .370, respectively.
• There aren’t stark lefty-righty splits for Goodman. In fact, his SLG when facing right-handed hurlers (.523) is actually a bit better than vs. lefties (.519). 
• Goodman consistently clobbers the ball, owning a 95th-percentile barrel rate of 14.8%. 
• Mize doesn’t do particularly well at limiting hard contact, ranking in the 40th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate (39.7%), barrel rate (8.3%), and average exit velocity (89.4 mph). 

Add Hunter Goodman to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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White Sox 3B Miguel Vargas

White Sox vs. Guardians – 6:40 p.m. ET

Guardians Starting Pitcher: Gavin Williams

MLB Weather Report: 65 degrees, clear skies, 3 mph northeast winds

• Vargas is hitting the cover off the ball, owning career-best figures for homers (30), ISO (.223), and SLG (.470).
• The rising standout for the White Sox owns a 13.3% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate in 2026, well above his lifelong averages of 9.6% and 38.6%, respectively. 
• One of the keys for Vargas unlocking such elite power is simply swinging harder. His 73.9 mph average bat speed is much quicker than his 69.8 and 70.6 marks in 2024 and 2025, and he’s raised his fast-swing clip by a staggering 34.4% in that span from 8.3% to 42.7%. 
• On top of being a disciplined hitter (93rd percentile chase rate, 94th percentile walk rate), Vargas is in the 96th percentile in launch angle sweet-spot share (40.1%) and the 97th in xwOBA (.379). 

Add Miguel Vargas to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Mets LF Juan Soto

Orioles vs. Mets – 7:10 p.m. ET

Orioles Starting Pitcher: Brandon Young

MLB Weather Report: 71 degrees, clear skies, 10 mph north-northwest winds

• Soto’s second-half decline can largely be chalked up to rotten fortune on balls in play. His BABIP has plummeted from .276 in the first half to just .204 in the second half, meaning he might be due for some positive regression.
• Piggybacking on that, Soto’s xSLG (.576) sits in the 100th percentile. That, combined with a 92.5 mph average exit velo (93rd percentile), is difficult to argue against.
• The superstar outfielder maintains a healthy 13.9% barrel rate and pairs it with a 16.1-degree average launch angle that’s easily the best of his career.
• Young continues to struggle with the long ball, ceding 1.28 HR/9 after that figure was 1.87 in 2025.
• Opponents are feasting against Young’s sinker, thrown 13.3% of the time to the tune of a .510 SLG. Soto is doing damage against the offering, owning a .569 SLG as his second-most-faced pitch at 21.7% frequency. 

Add Juan Soto to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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When the Rockies host the Padres, could Goodman continue his slugging ways? What about Vargas, who’s enjoying the most productive year of his career and has a bout with playoff implications on Monday? Elsewhere, keep an eye on players like Soto to flex their muscles as premier hitters to kick off a new week. 

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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