Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction, Spread, NFL Picks Today – Sunday, September 27

In Week 3, the Cincinnati Bengals will hit the road to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 27. The Bengals enter as 3.5-point road favorites over their AFC North rivals, and they will return a 1.51x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

The Bengals have opened the season 2-0, and the vibes are good following a 20-6 win over the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium. The same can’t be said for the 1-1 Steelers, who have struggled on offense and failed to score a touchdown in a 20-3 road loss to the New England Patriots.

Below, we’ll break down our Bengals vs. Steelers prediction and picks for NFL Week 3, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Bengals vs. Steelers prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27

The Bengals have opened the year with mixed results on offense despite having QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, and RB Chase Brown all healthy.

Through two weeks, Cincinnati has averaged the 11th-most points per game (26.5) and the 16th-most yards per game (309.0). Advanced metrics are less kind, as they sit outside the top 20 in both EPA/play (-0.015) and success rate (39.3%), according to RBSDM. 

The Bengals did just play a Houston team that had one of the league’s best defenses last year, though, and that’s perhaps reflected in their offensive DVOA ranking a respectable 12th, per FTN.

In all, this should be a potent attack over the long haul. When Burrow was last healthy for a full season in 2024, the Bengals’ offense ranked inside the top seven in both EPA/play and success rate.

Arguably the bigger story for Cincinnati is their improvements on defense. 

After being one of the worst defensive units in 2025, the Bengals come into Week 3 allowing the eighth-fewest points per game (16.5), and they’ve been particularly stout against the run, giving up the third-fewest rushing yards per game (74.5). They’re also tied for the league lead in sacks (8). 

Cincinnati’s D ranks fourth in EPA/play (-0.173) and 10th in success rate (41.5%), capped by sitting seventh in defensive DVOA.

All of this is bad news for a Pittsburgh offense that’s been lethargic, to say the least. 

This attack ranks 31st in EPA/play (-.286), which is right below a beleaguered Los Angeles Chargers offense and above only an Atlanta Falcons squad that was starting its third-string quarterback the first two weeks. 

Offensive DVOA? They’re 31st in that metric, too. It’s safe to say this reunion between QB Aaron Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy hasn’t exactly gotten off to an inspiring start.

The team has fared much better defensively, as they’ve also held opponents to only 16.5 points per game so far. Even better, the Steelers rank first in defensive DVOA and second in EPA/play (-0.207). 

That being said, they faced the aforementioned Falcons in Week 1, who started ineffective QB Cooper Rush, and last week’s loss came against a Patriots offense that’s had its own struggles to open the year. 

Sunday’s matchup against the Bengals figures to be a far tougher test and should be a better barometer of this defense’s level.   

Bengals vs. Steelers Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, September 27

The Bengals enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point road favorites against the Steelers, returning a 1.51x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.

Make your Bengals vs. Steelers prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction on Spread – 9/27/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Bengals vs. Steelers prediction on the spread for Sunday, September 27.

• Cincinnati’s defensive line ranks third in run stop win rate (34%), per ESPN, supporting its strong play against opposing backfields through two weeks.
• The Steelers’ offense enters Sunday’s matchup ranked 29th in rushing yards per game (74.5), 32nd in rushing success rate (28.2%), and 31st in run block win rate (68%).
• Aaron Rodgers is 31st out of 33 quarterbacks in adjusted EPA/play (-0.238). Only backup QBs Jameis Winston (-0.446) and Cooper Rush (-0.529) have been worse.
• The Steelers are 31st in points per game (11.5) and 30th in yards per game (249.5). As a team, they’ve scored two touchdowns, but only one has come from the offense.
• While the Steelers could have a solid defense this season, some of their early success can be attributed to facing an abysmal Cooper Rush in Week 1. Last week against the Patriots, Pittsburgh’s defense was middle of the pack in EPA/play (-0.036) and success rate (43.4%).

Make your Bengals vs. Steelers picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.

Bengals vs. Steelers Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/27/26

Here are the top Bengals vs. Steelers picks to target on Sunday, September 27. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, and Aaron Rodgers.

Bengals WR Tee Higgins vs. Steelers: 55.5 Receiving Yards

• Higgins has tallied 59 and 95 receiving yards in his first two games. His 154 receiving yards lead the team, and no other player has cracked 90 yards yet.
• The wideout also leads the Bengals with a 24.6% target share, even eclipsing Ja’Marr Chase’s share (20.0%).
• Higgins is averaging 2.57 yards per route run, which ranks 12th among wideouts with at least 10 targets.
• His 37.8% first-read target share ranks 10th in the NFL.

Add Tee Higgins + Bengals to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Steelers WR DK Metcalf vs. Bengals: 7.5 Receiving Targets

• Over his first two games, Metcalf has been targeted 10 and 9 times. 
• He leads the team with a 25.7% target share, per SumerSports. The next closest player is WR Roman Wilson at 16.2%.
• According to PlayerProfiler, Metcalf has a 34.8% first read target share, which is the league’s 13th-best mark. 
• The Steelers have struggled to run the ball and face a bad rushing matchup against the Bengals, perhaps forcing them to air it out. That will be even more the case if they fall into a negative game script as a home underdog.

Add DK Metcalf to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Bengals: 220.5 Pass Yards

• Rodgers has averaged 204.0 passing yards per game despite also averaging the fourth-most pass attempts per game (39.5).
• His 5.2 yards per attempt ranks 31st among 32 qualified quarterbacks. That would easily be his lowest mark across a full season since he became a starter in 2008.
• Rodgers averaged 207.6 passing yards per game across 16 games with the Steelers in 2025.
• As noted earlier, Rodgers ranks 31st in adjusted EPA/play. He’s also 27th in success rate (40.9%) and 25th in CPOE (-2.5).
• The Bengals rank 12th in QB pressures per dropback, according to Pro Football Reference, despite blitzing at the second-lowest clip (12.1%). 

Pick Aaron Rodgers + Steelers to win on PrizePicks.

Make Bengals vs. Steelers Picks on PrizePicks

The Cincinnati Bengals enter Week 3 undefeated, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are still looking for answers behind a sluggish offense. Can the Steelers turn things around as a home underdog on Sunday?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Bengals vs. Steelers picks on PrizePicks now for Week 3 and earn real money if you're right.

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