Bengals vs. Falcons Prediction, Spread, Picks for Madrid Game – NFL Week 9

In Week 9, the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) will face the Atlanta Falcons (3-5) at 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, November 8. The game will take place at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, Spain, and air on NFL Network. The Bengals come in as 3.5-point favorites, and they would return a 1.53x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

The Bengals found themselves in a surprise shootout last week against the Tennessee Titans, but they eventually prevailed in overtime, 43-36. Meanwhile, the Falcons were on the wrong side of history in a poor-weather game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 8, falling 16-0 despite the Bucs completing 0 passes the entire contest. Tampa Bay became the first team to win without completing a pass since 1974.

Cincinnati comes in riding a three-game win streak, while Atlanta will attempt to turn the page following last week's disappointing performance. Which side gets the victory in this season’s seventh NFL international game?

Below, we’ll break down our Bengals vs. Falcons prediction and picks for NFL Week 9, including the spread, over/under, and top player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Bengals vs. Falcons prediction and picks on PrizePicks now!

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Bengals vs. Falcons Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Madrid Game – NFL Week 9

The Bengals enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point favorites against the Falcons, returning a 1.53x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $153 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Bengals vs. Falcons game. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. 

Make your Bengals vs. Falcons prediction on the spread, over/under, and more on PrizePicks!

Cincinnati’s offense has been on a roll of late, scoring 31+ points in each of the last three games, and QB Joe Burrow is a big reason why. He accounted for 6 total TDs in last week’s win over the Titans, completing 38 of 48 passes for 462 yards, 5 TDs, and 3 INTs while also rushing for a TD. 

Of course, having WR Ja’Marr Chase and WR Tee Higgins certainly hasn’t hurt Burrow’s cause. The two star wideouts combined for 21 receptions, 296 yards, and 3 TDs against Tennessee.

Burrow enters the week leading the league in passing TDs (20) despite the Bengals already having their bye, and he’s averaging the most passing YPG (302.1). Overall, Cincinnati’s offense is second in PPG (29.4) and seventh in YPG (368.7) this year. 

While the Bengals have struggled to run the ball, sitting 30th in rushing YPG (80.3), this attack has still excelled through Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

The defense has been a different story, as the unit has been mediocre at best. Although the Bengals’ D is a smidge above average in PPG (22.6), it’s also coughed up the seventh-most YPG (360.0). Giving up 36 points to a one-win Titans team that’s struggled on offense certainly doesn’t inspire confidence coming into this matchup.

As for the Falcons, terrible weather conditions are largely to blame for the offense putting up a goose egg in last week’s loss to the Bucs. However, it was a truly dreadful outing for QB Michael Penix Jr., who completed just 8 of 24 passes for 125 yards, 0 TDs, and 4 INTs. Stud RB Bijan Robinson was also held in check, as he carried the ball 19 times for a pedestrian 76 yards.

Still, better days should be ahead for an offense that helped defeat the then-undefeated San Francisco 49ers 29-20 the week prior. This remains a talented group with Penix, Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts. 

Defensively, Atlanta has been middle of the pack, allowing 23.6 PPG and 341.6 YPG this season. However, it was torched on the ground by Tampa Bay, allowing a whopping 324 rushing yards and a TD on 56 carries.

Luckily for the Falcons, Cincinnati’s lackluster rushing attack is unlikely to produce similar results. Of course, defending Burrow and company could still lead to a long day at the office. 

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Bengals vs. Falcons Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 9 – 11/8/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Bengals vs. Falcons prediction on the spread for Sunday, November 8.

• If we exclude Atlanta’s performance in last week’s downpour, the offense has averaged 0.128 EPA/play across Penix’s five other starts this season, per RBSDM. That would rank third over the full season and is higher than the Bengals’ sixth-best mark (0.118).
• Bijan Robinson has struggled as a rusher the past two games against the Buccaneers and 49ers. San Francisco and Tampa Bay allow 3.5 and 3.6 rushing YPA, respectively, which are both top-six marks. Cincinnati gives up 4.8 rushing YPA, which is tied for the fourth worst.
• This coincides with the 49ers ranking first in rush EPA/play allowed (-0.212) and the Bucs ranking third (-0.171). The Bengals are 20th (-0.081).
• Despite some quieter games lately, Robinson is still averaging the NFL’s fifth-most scrimmage YPG (122.9). Among RBs with at least 50 carries, he’s first in yards after contact per attempt (4.19), per PFF.
• Even with the Falcons’ recent struggles against the run, their defense is 10th in EPA/play allowed (-0.038). They also rank ninth in defensive DVOA, according to FTN. 
• Atlanta might be able to disrupt Burrows’ rhythm with its pass rush. Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Falcons are fourth in pressure rate (41.6%), and they’re also 10th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (53%). 

Make your Bengals vs. Falcons picks on PrizePicks for Sunday’s NFL game.

Bengals vs. Falcons Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/8/26

Here are the top Bengals vs. Falcons picks to target on Sunday, November 8. Today’s NFL picks for PrizePicks include Tee Higgins and Kyle Pitts.

Bengals WR Tee Higgins vs. Falcons: 77.5 Receiving Yards

• Higgins is averaging 103.7 receiving YPG, the second-best mark in the league. He’s reached 90+ receiving yards in five of seven games.
• He’s gone nuclear in three of the past four games, tallying 157, 22, 148, and 155 receiving yards. The lone dud came in Week 5 when Higgins was dealing with groin and neck injuries.
• Following Cincinnati’s Week 6 bye, he’s logged a 100% and 96.4% route participation rate over the last two games, per PlayerProfiler. He reached 95% only once in the previous five games.
• Among wideouts with at least 30 targets, Higgins is averaging the fourth-most yards per route run (2.86).
• The Bengals rank first in pass rate over expected by a wide margin (+9.7) this season, and they’ve been even higher over the last four games (+12.2). 

Add Tee Higgins + Bengals to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts vs. Bengals: 42.5 Receiving Yards

• Against TEs, the Bengals’ defense has allowed the second-most receiving YPG (88.7) and receptions per game (7.0), per Pro Football Reference.
• According to JJ Zachariason, Pitts fell below a 10% target share in each of his first three games but has reached or surpassed a 15% share in five straight games. This includes a 22% target share in Week 8.
• Over those last five games, he’s reached 42+ receiving yards three times. The two times he didn’t came against a tough 49ers team and in last week’s rain game.
• The Bengals allowed Titans TE Gunnar Helm to catch 5 of 9 targets for 76 receiving yards last week. Helm’s season-high in a game was 28 receiving yards entering that matchup.
• This game has one of the week’s highest totals (52.5 points), suggesting this could turn into a back-and-forth shootout.    

Add Kyle Pitts + Falcons to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Make Bengals vs. Falcons Picks on PrizePicks

The Cincinnati Bengals are seeking their fourth straight victory, while the Atlanta Falcons are hoping to bounce back from an sloppy loss. Who comes out on top in the 2026 Madrid Game?

Don't wait until kickoff — make your Bengals vs. Falcons picks on PrizePicks now for Week 9 and earn real money if you're right.

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