Borussia Dortmund is up 2-0 on aggregate vs. Atalanta ahead of Wednesday’s second leg in the Champions League knockout playoff. Dortmund — currently sitting in the No. 2 spot of the Bundesliga table — took care of business at home in the first leg, and will look to fend off the Italians in a hostile environment.
Overcoming a two-goal deficit won’t be easy, but Atalanta must fix their recent scoring woes to avoid elimination, as they’ve gone scoreless in back-to-back UCL matches.
Kickoff for Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund is scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 25, live on Paramount+.
Below, we’ll break down our Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction and PrizePicks picks for Wednesday’s Champions League matchup at New Balance Arena. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make your UCL picks on players, goal totals, and other stats!
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Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Picks, Spread
Slowing down Serhou Guirassy and a Dortmund attack that is ninth in expected goals (xG; 16.1) in the Champions League is crucial for Atalanta to bring things back to level and advance.
Although Atalanta isn’t too far behind their German opponents in xG (15.2), they’re 20th in xG conceded (13.1) under manager Raffaele Palladino, according to Fotmob.com.
Similar to the first leg, Atalanta will be without Charles De Ketelaere, who led the club with 4 goal contributions (2 goals, 2 assists) in the league phase. Ketelaere also leads Atalanta in chances created (45) and xA (6.5) by a wide margin in domestic matches, so his absence is certainly felt by the Serie A competitors.
Atalanta is already two goals down, which doesn't bode well for the home side; of their four Champions League wins, only one has come by 2+ goals — a 3-0 win to Frankfurt.
Atalanta vs. Dortmund Spread, Total Goals, Payouts
Atalanta enters Wednesday’s match as home favorites, returning a 2.08x payout ($100 entry pays out $208) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Borussia Dortmund are road underdogs with a 2.85x ($285 payout on a $100 entry) payout if they find a road win in regulation, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Winner Payout: Atalanta – 2.08x | Tie – 3.57x | Dortmund – 2.94x
Spread: Atalanta -1.5 (3.84x Payout)
Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.63x)
Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.51x | No 2.43x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. Does not include extra time or penalties.
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Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction on Wednesday, February 25, for PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 34 states.
- Atalanta is unbeaten against Serie A opponents in 2026, recording a 7-2-0 record since the start of the new year.
- Dortmund has been aggressive in attacking the box and earning penalties, as they’ve been awarded the second-most penalties (4) in the UCL.
- Both sides tend to try to cut off passing lanes, which is indicated by both clubs ranking in the top three in interceptions per match throughout Champions League competitions.
- Across 20 home games in all competitions this season, Atalanta holds a positive 12-5-3 record, including a 2-1-1 record at home versus UCL opponents.
- Furthermore, Atalanta has bagged multiple goals in each of their last six home contests.
- Borussia Dortmund has posted 2-plus goals in four of their last five matches, earning a 4-1-0 record during that span.
- Neither of these teams is known for peppering the goal with shots in Champions League comps so far, as Dortmund is 20th in shots on target (4.8) and Atalanta is 30th in shots on target per match (3.7).
Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund Projected Lineups
Here are the projected Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund lineups for today's Champions League match. Lineups are not official and are subject to change up to game time.
Atalanta Lineup vs. Borussia Dortmund: Projected 3-4-2-1
- Goalkeeper: Marco Carnesecchi
- Defense: Sead Kolasinac, Berat Djimsiti, Odilon Kossounou
- Midfield: Davide Zappacosta, Marten de Roon, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Nicola Zalewski, Mario Pasalic
- Forwards: Gianluca Scamacca
Borussia Dortmund Lineup vs. Atalanta: Projected 3-4-2-1
- Goalkeeper: Gregor Kobel
- Defense: Remy Bensebaini, Waldemar Anton, Luca Reggiani
- Midfield: Daniel Svensson, Felix Nmecha, Jobe Bellingham, Julian Ryerson, Julian Brandt, Maximilian Beier
- Forwards: Serhou Guirassy
Atalanta vs. Dortmund Picks for Champions League: Wednesday, February 25
Here are the top Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund picks for Wednesday, February 25. PrizePicks Player Picks are headlined by Serhou Guirassy, Kamaldeen Sulemana, and Julian Ryerson.
Dortmund F Serhou Guirassy vs. Atalanta
Serhou Guirassy Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin), 1.5 Shots (Goblin), 0.5 Goal + Assist (Demon)
- Serhou Guirassy has logged at least one shot on goal in six of his eight starts in the Champions League this season.
- Guirassy leads Dortmund in shots on target per 90 minutes (1.3) and xG (4.0) in UCL games.
- Dortmund's forward has the most expected goals on target with 5.7 on the Dortmund roster in Champions League games.
- No other Dortmund player has more than 1.7.
Atalanta MF Kamaldeen Sulemana
Kamaldeen Sulemana Projections via PrizePicks: 1.5 Shots (Goblin), 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin), 0.5 Goal + Assist (Demon)
- Although Kamaldeen Sulemana has yet to start in a Champions League match for Atalanta this season, most sources have him in the starting XI on Wednesday.
- Despite coming on as a sub in all six of his UCL appearances, Sulemana has at least 1 shot on target in five of them and 2 or more SOT in two.
- Atalanta will have to be more aggressive if they want to overcome a two-goal deficit and advance;, Sulemana leads the squad in shots per 90 minutes with 4.5 in UCL play.
Dortmund MF Julian Ryerson
Julian Ryerson Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Goals + Assist (Demon), 0.5 Assist (Demon)
- As one of the primary corner and set-piece takers for Dortmund, Julian Ryerson has multiple crosses in five straight UCL appearances, and he was a sub in two of those games.
- Ryerson is pacing Borussia Dortmund’s squad in UCL play in chances created (15) and xA per 90 (0.27).
- Additionally, Ryerson leads Dortmund’s roster in assists (11) and chances created (35) in the Bundesliga.
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Make Your Atalanta vs. Dortmund Pick on PrizePicks
As the opening match on Wednesday, Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund will look to get the Champions League action off to an exciting start at 12:45 p.m. ET. The German side comes in with a 2-0 lead on aggregate, so we could see them sit back in their shell for much of this game.
You can make your Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money on UEFA Champions League games. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct.
With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and total goals, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued Champions League predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.
