Astros vs. Padres Prediction, MLB Picks for Sunday Night Baseball – 8/9/26

The Houston Astros (60-58) and the San Diego Padres (61-57) close a three-game series in a rubber match under the spotlight tonight, with Sunday Night Baseball beginning at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. According to PrizePicks Team Picks, the Padres are the home favorite with a 1.75x payout to win.

Sunday’s primetime clash could hold playoff implications, as the Astros top the AL West by half a game, while the Padres trail the Phillies by only 1.0 game for the final National League Wild Card spot. Who will secure the series win on Sunday Night Baseball?

Below, we’ll break down the Sunday Night Baseball matchup, including an Astros vs. Padres prediction and player picks for projections via PrizePicks.

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Astros vs. Padres Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Sunday, August 9

The Astros are surging at the right time with a 7-3 record over the last 10 games, including an impressive 5.3 runs per game in the split. For context, Houston totals 4.64 runs per contest on the season (10th).

Meanwhile, the Padres may lack the bats to keep up with 4.21 runs per game (21st). In the previous 10 games, San Diego has slightly increased that average to 4.4 per contest. 

With that said, the Padres leaned on a strong pitching performance in Saturday’s 3-2 win, led by SP Michael King pitching for 6.0 innings while allowing 3 hits and 1 earned run. San Diego SP Randy Vasquez (7-6, 5.08 xFIP in 101.0 IP) is expected to be next in line in the rotation.

In Game 1 of the series, Houston marched to a 6-3 win, partially thanks to a strong effort from the bullpen. Following 4.2 innings, SP Ronel Blanco was pulled after giving up 4 hits and 3 earned runs. Astros SP Cristian Javier (1-2, 5.66 xFIP in 27.1 IP) is set to make his sixth start and 10th appearance of the season tonight. 

Considering Javier and Vasquez each carry xFIPs surpassing 5.00, is Sunday Night Baseball headed for a high-scoring contest? 

Astros vs. Padres Winner Payout, Over/Under – Sunday, August 9

The Astros are underdogs for the third consecutive game of this series, featuring a 1.96x payout if they win compared to the Padres’ 1.75x payout to win. PrizePicks Team picks also tabs tonight’s matchup with an 8.5 over/under.

Here are the full payouts for the Astros vs. Padres game on PrizePicks.

Make your Astros vs. Padres prediction on the winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 36 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Astros vs. Padres Prediction on Over/Under for Sunday Night Baseball – 8/9/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Astros vs. Padres prediction on the total for Sunday Night Baseball.

• As mentioned, each team is above its per-game average in the last 10 games. The Astros have racked up 5.3 runs per game in the split, ahead of the Padres’ 4.4. 
• The over/under is 5-5 in San Diego’s previous 10 games, and Houston brings a decisive trend with the over 7-3 during the span. 
• Astros SP Cristian Javier touts a concerning 6.59 ERA, and his advanced stats suggest this isn't a fluke, including a 5.14 xERA and 5.66 xFIP, per FanGraphs.
• Javier gave up 3 earned runs in his last two starts, including 5.21 and 6.46 xFIPs in the outings. 
• His 1.32 HR/9 draws concern, and the Padres have launched a big fly in back-to-back games. 
• Despite a 6.12 xERA, San Diego SP Randy Vasquez has hit his stride by posting a 1.59 ERA over his previous five starts. Plus, the advanced numbers check out with 1.59, 1.74, 4.53, 2.87, and 1.52 xERAs in the split. 
• However, Vasquez’s last five starts still featured 12.2 combined runs per game. The Padres scored at least 7 runs in five of his past six appearances. 

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Astros vs. Padres Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 8/9/26

Here are top Astros vs. Padres picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, August 9. Tonight’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Yordan Alvarez and Randy Vasquez.

Astros DH Yordan Alvarez vs. Padres: 7 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Yordan Alvarez has gone nine consecutive games without a home run, but that hasn’t slowed his ability to get on base. Over seven contests in August, Alvarez is batting .333 with a .471 OBP.
• However, his lack of power has led to only 4 RBIs with a .481 SLG in August. Keep in mind Alvarez touts a jaw-dropping .630 SLG and a .693 xSLG (100th percentile), per Baseball Savant. 
• Padres SP Randy Vasquez has not allowed a long ball in five straight starts. 
• Additionally, he has limited contact, holding opponents to 2.6 hits per game in the split. That may impact Alvarez’s hits and his chance to knock in runs.
• Alvarez surpassed a 7-hitter fantasy score in only one of his past five games, totaling a 6.0 hitter fantasy score per game in the split. 

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Padres SP Randy Vasquez vs. Astros: 3 Strikeouts

• Despite his recent success, strikeouts are still difficult to come by for Vasquez. In fact, he’s recorded only 5 total strikeouts over his last five starts.
• Baseball Savant gives Vasquez a measly 15.0% strikeout rate (fifth percentile), a 27.7% chase rate (21st percentile), and a 19.5% whiff percentage (10th percentile). 
• Vasquez’s four-seam fastball carries his top usage rate (31.9%) and highest K rate (18.2%). The Astros likely have the answer with the fourth-most runs above average against the pitch.
• Houston has a 21.5% K rate on the season (tied for 11th-lowest), and that’s dropped to 20.6% over the last 30 days.  
• In this series, the Astros have posted 7.0 strikeouts per game, falling from their 8.17 per-game average (12th-fewest).  

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Make Astros vs. Padres Picks for Sunday Night Baseball on PrizePicks

Will each batting order’s recent success translate to a healthy run total on Sunday Night Baseball? Astros SP Cristian Javier fits the bill for runs, but Padres SP Randy Vasquez has improved his play of late.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Astros vs. Padres picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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