Astros vs. Cubs Prediction, MLB Picks for Saturday, May 23

The first pitch of the Houston Astros (21-31) vs. the Chicago Cubs (29-22) is set for 2:20 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 23, with the Cubs returning a 1.61x payout to win, via PrizePicks.

The Astros controlled the first game of the series, scoring 4 runs from the third through the fifth innings, winning the game 4-2. Astros C Christian Vasquez remains red-hot with 2 RBIs on Friday and 4 RBIs over his last four games. A loss today would give the Cubs their fifth consecutive series loss.

Below, we'll break down our Astros vs. Cubs prediction and picks for Saturday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Astros vs. Cubs prediction on PrizePicks for today's game.

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Astros vs. Cubs Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, May 23

The Astros will send SP Kai-Wei Teng (3.79 xFIP across 16 appearances, 3 starts, and 31.0 IP) to the bump. After 13 of his first 14 outings were from the bullpen, Teng has made back-to-back starts. He’s coming off his best outing of the season, with 5 scoreless innings, 2 hits allowed, and 7 strikeouts. 

Last year was the first time since 2016 that the Astros failed to make the playoffs. They are on track to miss the playoffs again and post a losing record for the first time since 2014, as they are currently 10 games below .500 and 6 games behind the Athletics in the American League West.

In the days when they were a World Series contender with pitchers like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, they had one of the league's top pitching staffs; this season, they are among the league's worst, ranking 26th in xERA (4.60) and 29th in xFIP (4.68). 

The Cubs counter with SP Colin Rea (3.86 xFIP across 10 appearances, 7 starts, and 47 IP in 2026). Rea has struggled over his last 5 starts, posting a 7.04 ERA and 4.93 FIP.

Chicago has lost six in a row and 10 of its last 12. This skid cost it a lead in the NL Central, going from a 3.5-game lead for first place on May 9 to two games behind the top spot. Since May 9, the Cubs rank 28th in wRC+ (63) and xERA (5.11).

Astros vs. Cubs Winner Payout, Over/Under – Saturday, May 23

The Cubs enter Saturday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.61x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.

Here are the full payouts for the Astros vs. Cubs game on PrizePicks.

• Spread: Cubs -1.5 (2.27x payout)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (1.96x payout on Over)
• Game Winner Payout: Astros 2.22x | Cubs 1.61x

Play the Astros vs. Cubs winner or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Astros vs. Cubs Prediction on Over/Under – 5/23/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Astros vs. Cubs prediction on the run total for Saturday, May 23.

Lock in your Astros vs. Cubs prediction on PrizePicks before the first pitch.

Data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

• Teng’s 6.2% barrel rate allowed ranks in the 68th percentile, and the Cubs have a 5.5% barrel rate since May 9, which ranks 25th in the league.
• Rea’s 46.4% hard-hit rate allowed sits in the 12th percentile, but the Astros may not take advantage of it, as their 37.8% hard-hit rate is 24th in baseball.
• The Astros and Cubs have been two of the worst offenses recently; since May 9, the Cubs are 28th in wOBA (.258), and the Astros are 30th in the department (.245).
• Rea is a much better pitcher at Wrigley Field with a 2.66 ERA compared to 6.75 on the road.
• The total has gone under in Teng’s last two starts.

Astros vs. Cubs Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/23/26

Here are the top Astros vs. Cubs picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, May 23. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Yordan Alvarez and Michael Busch.

Astros DH Yordan Alvarez vs. Cubs: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

• Alvarez’s production has taken a rapid nosedive. After posting a stellar .356 BA and 1.199 OPS in March and April, those numbers have plummeted to a .214 BA and .709 OPS in May.
• Swinging at pitches outside the strike zone is one of Alvarez’s weaknesses, as his 27.1% chase rate ranks in the 65th percentile.
• Rea may carry an advantage, as his 32.6% induced chase rate ranks in the 70th percentile.
• The Astros designated hitter has 4 hits in his last 39 at-bats on the road (.103).
• According to Baseball Reference, among the 34 ballparks that the veteran has played in, Alvarez's .421 OPS and .143 BA at Wrigley Field sit second-to-last.

Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Cubs 1B Michael Busch vs. Astros: 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

• Following a rough start to the season, Busch has improved in May, with his 1.1 WAR ranking third in the league, while his .439 wOBA is seventh.
• Teng is more vulnerable to left-handed batters this year, as they have a .350 wOBA, compared to .213 for right-handed batters. That could benefit the lefty-batting Busch.
• The Cubs' first baseman is disciplined at the plate, thanks to his 25.1% chase rate ranking in the 74th percentile. That’s a significant advantage to Teng’s 27.3% induced chase rate that ranks in the 25th percentile.
• Teng throws the sweeper more than any other pitch, at 36.0%. Busch’s .286 BA against the sweeper is the second-highest among the seven types of pitches he’s seen at least 60 times this season.

Add Michael Busch to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make Astros vs. Cubs Picks on PrizePicks

Chicago is on a brutal run, losing 10 of its last 12, falling out of first place in the NL Central. The Cubs look to the recently struggling Colin Rea, and they've gone 2-3 in his last five starts. Will Chicago even the series against the Astros today?

Don’t wait until the first pitch happens — make your Astros vs. Cubs picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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