The #20 Utah Utes hope to move to 2-0 on the season when they welcome the Arkansas Razorbacks to Rice-Eccles Stadium for a 10:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday night.
As 11.5-point favorites for the spread via PrizePicks, will the Utes avoid looking ahead to a rivalry game with Utah State and get the job done? Meanwhile, the Razorbacks seek to pull off the upset and defeat a Power Four team for the first time since 2024.
Below, we’ll break down our Arkansas vs. Utah prediction and picks for Saturday's college football game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Arkansas vs. #20 Utah Prediction, Spread, Over/Under — Saturday, September 12
It’s been 624 days since the Arkansas Razorbacks played Texas Tech in the 2024 Liberty Bowl. That was their last win over a Power Four opponent, losing 10 straight games in 2025.
The Hogs were expected to be a competitive squad, but after wins over Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, they lost two close road games to Ole Miss and Memphis. Arkansas came close so many times, losing to Tennessee, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and LSU by a combined 10 points.
But when your defense finishes in the fifth percentile or worse in early downs EPA, late down down success rate, explosive play rate allowed, and yards per dropback, per Game On Paper, it’s nearly impossible to close out games.
The offense, which was expected to be the strength, led the nation in EPA/rush. They often fell so far behind they had to abandon it, and their passing game was mediocre. That contributed to finishing 115th in average third down to go and 88th in net EPA/play.
While Arkansas won its opener, it looked sluggish early against FCS opponent North Alabama, with QB KJ Jackson committing multiple turnovers. The Razorbacks even struggled to run the ball, posting just a 59.6 grade and averaging 3.0 yards a carry, per PFF.
The Utah Utes have a returning starter at QB, and Devon Dampier looked excellent against Idaho in the opener.
He racked up over 200 yards of total offense and threw a trio of TD passes, spearheading an offense that ranked in the 95th percentile or better in EPA/play, rush EPA/play, late down success, and available yards gained in 2025.
The Utes have explosive players at both RB and WR, and RB Wayshawn Parker is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball. They’re also getting a massive boost playing at home, where the Utes are 48-13 since the start of the 2016 season.
Arkansas vs. Utah Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, September 12
The Utah Utes enter this game favored to win by 12.5 points over the Arkansas Razorbacks, returning a 1.17x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright.
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PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Arkansas vs. Utah Prediction on Spread – 9/12/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Arkansas vs. Utah prediction on the spread for the game on Saturday, September 12.
- The Utes ranked in the top five nationally in EPA/rush, late down success, net EPA/play, and net EPA/drive last season.
- The Hogs had one of the worst defenses in college football, ranking in the bottom 10 in EPA allowed for both rushing and passing, available yards allowed, explosive play rate, early-down EPA, and late-down success.
- Despite playing an overmatched FCS opponent, Arkansas got a PFF passing grade of just 61 and an offensive grade of 62.8 last week. It also struggled to generate a pass rush for large parts of the game.
- Conversely, Utah posted an 86.6 offensive grade from PFF, with seven of its 49 rushing attempts going for at least 15 yards.
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Arkansas vs. #20 Utah Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/12/26
Here are the top Arkansas vs. Utah picks to target on Saturday, September 12. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB Sutton Smith and QB Devon Dampier.
Arkansas RB Sutton Smith vs. Utah: 18.5 Receiving Yards
- Arkansas RB Sutton Smith ran 17 routes in the opener against North Alabama. That was the sixth-most of any Arkansas offensive player and the most of any back.
- Sutton’s receiving route total was also more than all of Arkansas’ other RBs combined, and he was targeted five times, which ranked third on the team.
- Despite an average depth of target that was four yards behind the line of scrimmage, Sutton picked up 43 yards on his 4 catches. This led to a 2.53 yards per route run, the most of any player with more than 1 target.
- Sutton racked up 60 yards after the catch and could be looked to as a dump-off option on the road in a hostile environment. Given his electric speed, he can rip off big gains when he gets the ball in open space.
- Don’t be surprised to see Sutton go into motion into the flat for some screen passes either, as he lined up in the slot four times in the season opener.
Add Sutton Smith to your PrizePicks lineup now.
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Utah QB Devon Dampier vs. Arkansas: 25.5 Fantasy Score
- Despite playing just seven drives — only one of which came in the second half — Devon Dampier posted a 22.14 fantasy score in the opener against Idaho. He led 5 touchdown drives, with another resulting in a field goal. Plus, he threw 3 TDs on just 18 passing attempts.
- Dampier also ran the ball just 6 times for 31 yards. It’s just the third time in his last 20 starts he didn’t have at least 10 rushing attempts, per ESPN, and the fifth time in his last 22 starts he didn’t rush for at least 50 yards.
- In the three games before that, Dampier cleared 25.5 fantasy points and averaged 39.7 fantasy points in that span. This includes last season's bowl game vs. Nebraska, when Dampier accounted for 6 total TDs.
- Dampier has been responsible for 15 total TDs in his last four games going back to last season.
Add Devon Dampier to your PrizePicks lineup now.
Make Arkansas vs. Utah Picks on PrizePicks
It’s been 21 months since Arkansas last celebrated a win over a power conference opponent. The chance of ending that streak is quite low against a Utah team led by the dynamic Devon Dampier.
Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Arkansas vs. Utah picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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