Argentina and Cape Verde meet in the World Cup Round of 32 on Friday, July 3, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, with kickoff set for 6 p.m. ET. Argentina is favored to advance, with a 1.04x payout on PrizePicks, while the underdog Cape Verde has a 9.09x payout.
Cape Verde’s underdog story has won over hearts, but now they face their toughest challenge in Lionel Messi. Argentina hasn’t lost a knockout match at a major tournament since the 2019 Copa America and is looking to claim back-to-back World Cup trophies.
Below, we’ll break down our Argentina vs. Cape Verde prediction and picks for Friday afternoon’s World Cup Round of 32 match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Argentina vs. Cape Verde prediction and World Cup picks on PrizePicks now!
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Argentina vs. Cape Verde Prediction, Spread, Over/Under — Friday, July 3
How to watch Argentina vs. Cape Verde: Fox (English) / Telemundo (Spanish)
Kickoff Time: 6 p.m. ET
Miami Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Stadium), Miami Gardens, Florida
Many people were bothered by World Cup 2026 expanding to 48 teams, with concerns about the competition being watered down. But it’s the expansion that allowed one of the best underdog stories in the history of the competition.
The only one of four debutantes to reach the knockout stage, Cape Verde did so after opening the tournament with a shocking draw against Spain. They followed up with draws against Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, finishing second in Group H on three points.
They’ve kept two clean sheets in the tournament, but doing so against Argentina will be a mighty difficult feat. The draw with Spain saw them facing a La Roja side that didn’t have RW Lamine Yamal for much of the contest. His appearance began causing problems for Cape Verde as it gave them a dynamic playmaker to defend.
Spain also made things fairly simple at times. While Spain had 2.10 xG, they only racked up 1.45 xGOT and hit many shots right at Cape Verde GK Vozhina.
Argentina will be the first team they face with a similar talent level to Spain. Lionel Messi has been spectacular, defying Father Time and taking control of nearly every match when he’s been on the pitch.
Messi’s 6 goals have come despite just 2.69 xG, and he’s racked up 0.18 xG per shot on 15 attempts. He’s carrying the attack, as he’s accounted for 9 of Argentina’s 15 attempts on target.
The other end of the pitch is what is helping Argentina roll at the moment. They conceded just 1.61 xG, with only 2 of the 18 shots against finding the target.
Opponents have registered just 36 touches in the box, which could be problematic for Cape Verde. They want to hit on the counter-attack and have done so with 4 fast break opportunities. But none of those have actually led to goals, and they’ve touched the ball just 35 times in the opposing box.
Cape Verde will need to continue blocking shots and frustrating Argentina. They’ve allowed just 12 of 51 shots to reach the goalkeeper, with a 3.92% conversion rate that ranks fifth-best in the tournament.
If they can do that and find a way to steal a goal on the counter, they could pull off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the sport.
Argentina vs. Cape Verde: Favorite to Advance, Spread, Total Goals for World Cup Round of 32
Argentina enters Friday’s match as overwhelming favorites, returning a 1.04x payout if they advance, via PrizePicks Team Picks. Meanwhile, Cape Verde will look to continue defending their goal with gusto and look for their opportunities on the counter-attack.
Here are the full payouts for the Argentina vs. Cape Verde match on PrizePicks.
- To Advance: Argentina – 1.04x | Cape Verde – 9.09x
- 90 Minute Winner: Argentina – 1.12x | Tie – 7.14x | Cape Verde – 16.66x
- Spread: Argentina -2.5 (2.22x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over - 1.56x | Under - 2.32x)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 2.77x | No 1.4x
Make your Argentina vs. Cape Verde spread or goals on PrizePicks Team Picks —available in 35 states!
Team Picks markets are settled after full-time (90 minutes + stoppage). Extra time and penalties are not included.
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Argentina vs. Cape Verde Prediction on Spread for World Cup Round of 32
Here are the key stats and trends for Argentina vs. Cape Verde before making your World Cup 2026 predictions on PrizePicks.
- Messi has done much of Argentina’s heavy lifting. He’s responsible for 15 of their 34 shot attempts, 9 of their 15 shots on target, and 6 of their 8 goals.
- Argentina defeated Algeria 3-0 in their opener, behind a hat trick from Messi. Algeria conceded 9 goals in their four matches and had one of the worst defensive performances of the tournament.
- In their other two matches, Argentina won by a pair of goals.
- Cape Verde drew all three of their group stage matches, conceding just 2 goals from 4.81 xG. Their -2.81 goals vs. expected is the best defensive mark of any nation.
- Cape Verde is forcing opponents to take 41.18% of their shots from outside the penalty box.
- Argentina has won by more than 2 goals in just six of their last 27 competitive fixtures.
Lock in your Argentina vs. Cape Verde prediction for the World Cup Round of 32 now!
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Argentina vs. Cape Verde Lineups for Round of 32 – Friday, July 3
Here are the projected Argentina vs. Cape Verde lineups for today's World Cup Round of 32 match. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.
Argentina Lineup vs. Cape Verde Today
Projected Formation: 4-4-2
- Goalkeeper: Emi Martínez
- Defense: Nahuel Molina, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martínez, Facundo Medina
- Midfield: Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández, Thiago Almada
- Forwards: Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martínez
Cape Verde Lineup vs. Argentina Today
Projected Formation: 4-1-4-1
- Goalkeeper: Vozinha
- Defense: Steven Moreira, Pico Lpes, Diney Borges, Sidny Cabral
- Midfield: Ryan Mendes, Deroy Duarte, Kevin Pina, Jamiro Monteiro, Jovane Cabral
- Forwards: Daikon Livramento
Argentina vs. Cape Verde Picks, Player Stats for World Cup Round of 32: 7/3/26
Here are the top Argentina vs. Cape Verde player picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, July 3. Today’s World Cup 2026 picks are headlined by Lionel Messi and Vozinha.
PrizePicks is adding to the anticipation for Argentina vs. Cape Verde by offering a special Discount on Lionel Messi's pass attempts, dropping his 44.5 projection to 36.5 for a limited time!
Argentina ST Lionel Messi Pick vs. Cape Verde: 36.5 Passes Attempted (Discount)
- Lionel Messi has attempted 44.1 passes per 90 minutes through the first three matches at the World Cup.
- In both of his group stage starts, he attempted at least 37 passes.
- Messi has reached 37 attempted passes in 11 of his last 12 starts for Argentina.
- Argentina averaged 648.67 passes per match during the group stage, while holding 58.2% possession.
- Cape Verde has conceded 62.8% possession to opponents during the tournament. This presents a gap of 4.0% between typical possession rates that Argentina is more likely to capitalize on, leading to higher passing numbers.
- Messi has a tendency when playing against low blocks to drop into midfield and link up with teammates. If he follows that pattern here, it could lead to an elevated pass total as well.
- PrizePicks is discounting Messi’s passes attempted from 44.5 to 36.5 for today’s Argentina World Cup game.
- Discounts lower a player projection for a limited time, making the More easier to hit than the original number.
Combine Lionel Messi + Argentina World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks
Cape Verde GK Vozinha Pick vs. Argentina: 4 Goalie Saves
- Vozinha stopped 10 of the 12 accurate shots he faced during the World Cup 2026 group stage.
- His 83.3% save rate is eighth-highest among goalkeepers who have played multiple matches this tournament.
- His saves have led to 1.4 goals prevented.
- Cape Verde’s compact defense has allowed just 58.82% of shot attempts to be taken from inside the penalty area, despite allowing the sixth-most touches in the box (35) per match.
- Argentina averaged just 5.0 SOT per match in the group stage, scoring on 8 of them.
Combine Vozinha + Cape Verde World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks
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Make Your Argentina vs. Cape Verde Prediction on PrizePicks
Argentina will be wary of the upstart Cape Verde side, who has absolutely nothing to lose. With a place in the Round of 16 on the line, La Albiceleste will look to Lionel Messi to once again spark them to victory and keep their amazing knockout streak alive.
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