Aaron Judge Injury Update: When Will Judge Return for Yankees?

Ahead of Friday’s series opener against the rival Red Sox, the Yankees received brutal news following Thursday’s 2-1 win over the Guardians. New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge was diagnosed with a stress fracture in the first rib on his right side.

The three-time MVP is expected to miss at least four to six weeks as he awaits reimaging on his rib. A prolonged absence is certainly a blow to the Yankees, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games. How does the Aaron Judge injury impact New York’s season?

Below, we'll break down the latest Aaron Judge injury update, when he could return to action, and how the injury impacts projections for PrizePicks, including daily player projections and Judge’s AL MVP hopes.

Make Aaron Judge and Yankees predictions on PrizePicks.

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Aaron Judge Injury Update: How Long Is Judge Out for Yankees?

As mentioned, Judge has been initially tabbed as out for at least four to six weeks. The injury stems from Judge sitting out on Tuesday against the Guardians, with the injury initially diagnosed as a bone bruise. 

According to ESPN’s Jorge Castillo, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Judge was battling the injury for weeks, and it caused pain in his right shoulder during his swing. New York feared a thoracic outlet diagnosis that would have kept the superstar out for the remainder of the season.

During testing, the Yankees discovered the stress fracture in his first right rib. Considering the worst case, New York is likely glad to know he should return at some point this season. Still, the four-to-six-week timeline is for a reimaging of his rib. The absence could extend well past a month.

With that said, the injury has not caused a huge hit to the Yankees’ late-season aspirations, but a fourth MVP now looks very unlikely for Judge.

Let’s look at how the Aaron Judge injury has impacted projections on PrizePicks Team Picks — where you can make predictions on game winners, over/unders, MLB futures, and more.

Aaron Judge Injury Impact on MLB PrizePicks Projections

Let’s go over how the injury has shifted projections for Judge to win AL MVP, the Yankees to make the 2026 MLB Playoffs, and more.

The MLB payouts listed below (like 2x) indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200 on PrizePicks Team Picks.

The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks.

Payouts are live as of writing but are subject to change.

• Aaron Judge to Win AL MVP: Yes 22.22x | No N/A
• Yankees to Qualify for MLB Playoffs: Yes N/A | No 5.55x
• Yankees to Win AL East: Yes 1.42x | No 2.7x
• Yankees to Win World Series: Yes 5.26x | No 1.12x

According to Kalshi.com, New York’s chance to win the AL East only declined by 1% following the injury — even with the Tampa Bay Rays leading the division by half a game. 

Further, PrizePicks Team Picks still gives the Yanks the second-shortest payout to win the 2026 World Series (5.26x), behind the Dodgers’ 3.03x payout. 

Judge's chances to win a third straight AL MVP took a brutal hit, declining by 46% on Kalshi and now sitting at 2% to win the hardware. That's further reflected by his 22.22x payout to win AL MVP on PrizePicks Team Picks.

New York will be without Judge in the lineup for at least a month. Which Yankees could step up for daily MLB player picks on PrizePicks? 

Make your 2026 MLB season predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!

What Yankees Players to Target on PrizePicks With Judge Out?

Without Judge in the lineup for the three-game series vs. the Guardians from Tuesday to Thursday, the Yankees logged only 3.3 runs per game compared to 5.1 on the season (fifth).

In three games without Judge this week, New York opted for a quicker lineup, recording 2.0 stolen bases per game in the split. For context, the Yankees average 1.0 stolen bases per game (fourth) on the season. Circling stolen base projections could be one way to adjust to the Judge injury. 

Additionally, Yankees infielder Jose Caballero filled in at right field on Tuesday and Wednesday, while SS Anthony Volpe played in the infield. On Thursday, Max Schuemann manned right field, whose previous appearance was at second base on May 31.

New York DH Paul Goldschmidt has also hit third in the lineup the last two days, likely providing more opportunities to drive in runs. He was hitting sixth in the batting order against right-handed pitchers when Judge was active.

The Yankees also faced a left-handed pitcher in Guardians SP Joey Cantillo on Tuesday, and 1B Ben Rice batted lead-off, while OF Cody Bellinger hit third.

On Friday, June 5, at 7:05 p.m. ET, New York opens a three-game series against its bitter rival, the Red Sox. Here are the Yankees players who may benefit most on PrizePicks while Judge is out, as well as their stat projections for Friday night. 

• Paul Goldschmidt vs. Red Sox Projections: 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs / 0.5 Hits (Goblin) / 0.5 Singles
• Ben Rice vs. Red Sox Projections: 1.5 Total Bases (Demon) / 0.5 Runs / 0.5 Singles (Demon)
• Anthony Volpe vs. Red Sox Projections: 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (Goblin) / 1.5 Total Bases (Demon) / 0.5 Walks (Demon)

With Red Sox SP Sonny Gray expected to take the mound on Friday night, the Yankees will likely deploy a lineup with Goldschmidt batting third. He becomes a target with Judge out, especially when the veteran logged 4 hits over his last 9 at-bats (.444).

Make your Red Sox vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks for Friday's series opener.

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Make Red Sox vs. Yankees Picks on PrizePicks

With Aaron Judge expected to miss at least the next month from a rib injury, the Yankees will look to stay afloat behind the first-place Rays in the AL East. The last few days have shown changes in the batting order. Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe are two Yankees to keep tabs on while Judge is out.

Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Red Sox vs. Yankees picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.

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