The Major League Baseball regular season is nearly here, and there are plenty of intriguing storylines to follow. One of them will be if New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge can win his third straight AL MVP.
There are plenty of projections to consider for Judge on PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks. Below, we’ll dig into a few of his projections in our Aaron Judge fantasy baseball preview, including home runs and RBIs.
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Aaron Judge's 2025 Stats
Not only did Judge win his second straight AL MVP in 2025, but it was the third time that he took home the award over the last four seasons. Despite battling an elbow injury during the second half of the season, he still appeared in 152 games.
Judge launched 53 home runs, helping him rack up 114 RBIs and 137 runs scored. That marked the fourth season of his career with at least 122 runs scored and 114 RBIs. He also finished with a 1.145 OPS, a .463 wOBA, and a .357 ISO.
Aaron Judge's 2026 MLB Projections
Here are some of the top Aaron Judge projections on PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks.
49.5 Home Runs
Judge has launched at least 53 home runs in three of the last four seasons. That included when he set a new AL record 62 homers in 2022.
The star outfielder has some of the best power production in the game, helping him launch home runs at ease. Last season, Judge produced a 24.7% barrel rate and a 58.2% hard-hit rate.
For his career, Judge has a 22.8% barrel rate and a 58.3% hard-hit rate. At 6’7", 280+ pounds, the 33-year-old slugger can rack up home runs in bunches, as long as he stays healthy. When he was limited to 106 games in 2023, he finished with 37 home runs.
According to FanGraphs 2026 projections, Judge is forecasted to launch 43 home runs in the upcoming season.
155.5 Hits
Judge doesn’t just smash home runs, accumulating at least 158 hits in four of the last five seasons. That included three campaigns with at least 177 hits.
Despite his massive power, Judge doesn’t strike out a ton, proven by a 23.6% strikeout rate to go along with his 18.3% walk rate last season.
Per FanGraphs, Judge made contact with 78.0% of the pitches that he swung at inside the strike zone last year. For his career, that mark is 79.2%.
When Judge doesn’t hit a home run, it’s still difficult to get him out because thanks to his raw power. Per Baseball Savant, Judge had an average exit velocity of 95.4 mph last year. That trailed only Pirates OF Oneil Cruz (95.8 mph).
113.5 RBIs
Hitting a lot of home runs makes it easy to accumulate RBIs. In 2024, Judge posted a career-high 144 RBIs with OF Juan Soto hitting in front of him. With Soto joining the Mets last season, Judge saw his RBIs drop to 114 in 2025.
The Yankees bring back mostly the same lineup as last season. They re-signed OF Cody Bellinger, and OF Trent Grisham accepted his qualifying offer to return for another year. Judge should bat second between the two once again. Grisham doesn’t hit for a high average, but he had a .348 OBP last year on his way to scoring 87 runs.
Team picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
More Aaron Judge 2026 MLB Projections
Here are more Aaron Judge projections on PrizePicks MLB SZN Picks.
- 5.5 Multi-HR Games
- 9.5 Stolen Bases
- 0.5 Triples
Aaron Judge's Competition in 2026 Fantasy Baseball
Judge not only has the highest projection for home runs in the AL, but it’s by a wide margin. The next-highest projections for AL hitters are Mariners C Cal Raleigh (39.5), Orioles 1B Pete Alonso (37.5), and Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz (365).
In terms of RBIs, the only other AL hitters with a projection of at least 100 are Rays 3B Junior Caminero (105.5), Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (100.5), and Raleigh (100.5).
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Judge is about to begin his quest for a fourth AL MVP award. With his ability to hit for power and a high average, knocking him off his throne won’t be easy for the rest of the league.
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