The Thursday NBA slate features a doubleheader on Prime Video, and a pair of Western Conference clubs kick things off at 7:30 p.m. ET.
In a battle of teams jockeying for seeding, the 25-20 Golden State Warriors hit the road to face the 18-26 Dallas Mavericks. Both sides are missing a key star, but there’s still plenty of talent to account for in this one.
Below, we’ll break down our Warriors vs. Mavericks prediction and picks for Thursday night’s game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Following a 48-win campaign last year, the Warriors find themselves 7-3 in their last 10 and five games above .500. With that said, their team could be lacking direction following F Jimmy Butler III’s torn ACL. Golden State is currently the West’s eight-seed.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, find themselves out of the play-in picture but are just 1.5 games out of that elusive 10th spot. With C Anthony Davis hurt and PG Kyrie Irving (ACL) having yet to make his 2025-26 debut, Dallas is having trouble matching last season’s 39-43 effort.
Thursday is the 182nd all-time meeting between the Warriors and Mavericks in the regular season. Dallas leads the series 95-86, although Golden State has won back-to-back clashes.
Warriors vs. Mavericks Over/Under, Spread
The Warriors enter Thursday’s game as 6.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.42x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Mavericks are home underdogs with a 2.63x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Golden State Warriors -6.5
- Over/Under: 233.5
- Game Winner Payout: Warriors 1.42x | Mavericks 2.63x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Warriors vs. Mavericks Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Warriors vs. Mavericks injury report for Thursday, via NBA.com.
Warriors Injury Report
- F Jimmy Butler III (knee): OUT
- G Seth Curry (sciatic nerve): OUT
- SG Gary Payton II (foot): Questionable
Mavericks Injury Report
- C Anthony Davis (finger): OUT
- C Daniel Gafford (ankle): Questionable
Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction on Spread
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Warriors vs. Mavericks prediction on Thursday, January 22.
- The Warriors’ 4-9 against-the-spread record as a road favorite is the fifth-worst in the NBA. The Mavericks are 10-3 as home underdogs, the Association’s fourth-best mark.
- Golden State is second-to-last in per-game scoring in both fastbreak (12.1) and paint (43.5) situations.
- Defensively, the Warriors surrender the No. 17 opponent shooting percentage at 47.1.
- While the Mavericks sit 24th in scoring at 114.2 PPG, they’re second on the break (18.8) and seventh in the paint (53.3).
- Foes’ shooting efficiency versus Dallas is 1.111, the second-lowest figure in the sport.
Warriors vs. Mavericks Picks for PrizePicks Today: Thursday, January 22
Here are three top Warriors vs. Mavericks picks to target for Thursday, January 22 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by PG Stephen Curry, SG Brandin Podziemski, and F Cooper Flagg.
Warriors PG Stephen Curry vs. Mavericks Projection: 33.5 Pts + Asts
- Curry averages 32.2 points and assists per game this season. In his last five outings, that number is down to an even 24.
- Without Butler in the lineup (513 minutes), Curry’s true shooting percentage declines from 65.8 to 60.7.
- This is just the second time since 2019 that Curry has owned an assist rate under 30% (28.0%).
- Per FantasyPros, in their last seven games, the Mavericks have yielded 23.6 PPG to the PG position. That’s the NBA’s 11th-lowest mark in that span.
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Warriors SG Brandin Podziemski vs. Mavericks Projection: 12.5 Points
- Through 45 games, Podziemski averages 12.3 points a night. That figure is up to 17.0 in his last five.
- The former No. 19 overall NBA Draft pick boasts career-highs in true shooting percentage (59.4), 3-point percentage (40.1), and usage rate (18.5%).
- Improvement at and near the rim is key to Podziemski’s improvement. He’s up 7.4% year-over-year from 0-3 feet (67.1% to 74.5%) and up 8.3% from 3-10 feet (50.8% to 59.1%).
- According to databallr, the third-year man’s usage rate climbs 4.3% without Butler. His true shooting clip sees a minor 0.9% increase.
Mavericks F Cooper Flagg vs. Warriors Projection: 30.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Forty-one games into his rookie year, Flagg compiles 29.2 points, rebounds, and assists per night. Since the start of December, however, that all-encompassing number is 31.6.
- Flagg gets up 23.9 true shot attempts per 100 possessions, putting him in the 90th percentile.
- Per NBARAPM, Flagg nets 16.4 2-point attempts per 100, a 98th-percentile achievement.
- Among all rookies averaging 20+ minutes a night, Flagg owns the fifth-highest assist rate (18.4%) and defensive rebounding rate (14.0%).
Make Warriors vs. Mavericks Picks on PrizePicks
Warriors vs. Mavericks picks aren’t the only avenue hoops fans have to getting in on the daily NBA action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
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