UFC Fight Night Predictions for Fiziev vs. Torres & All UFC Baku Main Card Fights

For the second time in its history, the UFC will put on a UFC Fight Night card in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Saturday, June 27, with the main fight card starting at 12 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

There are four fighters from Azerbaijan representing the home flag on the UFC Baku fight card, including one in the Fiziev vs. Torres main event. Rafael Fiziev will look to steal Manuel Torres’ No. 14 lightweight ranking and climb back toward title contention. 

The UFC Baku main card features five fights, with Fiziev and Torres entering as a pick ‘em in the main event, according to PrizePicks Team Picks.

In the UFC Baku co-main event, creative Russian striking sensation Shara Magomedov will look to find another highlight knockout as he battles eccentric Brazilian brawler Michel Pereira.

The UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres main card starts on Saturday afternoon at 12 p.m. ET on Paramount+. We're breaking down every fight with our UFC Baku predictions, model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Fiziev vs. Torres and every main card fight.

Make your UFC Baku predictions on PrizePicks, including winners, and earn real money if you’re right on every fight!

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UFC Fight Night Predictions for Fiziev vs. Torres & UFC Baku Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Fight Night predictions for Saturday in Baku, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

The UFC Baku main card is expected to start at 12 p.m. ET, leading into the main event: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres. Here’s a full rundown of tonight's main card:

• Main Event: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres – Lightweight
• Co-Main Event: Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira – Middleweight
• Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo – Lightweight
• Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson – Flyweight
• Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira – Middleweight
• Abus Magomedov vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk – Middleweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Baku main card fight, via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result. PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change.

UFC winner markets on PrizePicks are available in 35 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

^{All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.}

Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Rafael Fiziev 1.85x | Manuel Torres 1.88x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Fiziev vs. Torres Model Results:

No one in the UFC regularly fights below heavyweight in the manner that Manuel “El Loco” Torres does. The name is incredibly fitting.

Torres has yet to see a second round in six UFC starts, winning five of these quick brawls. The stat sheet shows 7.29 significant strikes landed per minute amongst hurricanes like the one that claimed Grant Dawson in his last bout.

There’s an obvious downside to fighting this way. We have zero idea what it looks like when Torres would progress – likely fatigued – later into a fight. He also got clipped by Ignacio Bahamondes on an initial surge up the rankings.

Can his opponent at UFC Baku, Rafael Fiziev, be the second to catch him close to home?

Fiziev, 33, does need a massive statement quickly after losing to Mauicio Ruffy by second-round (T)KO in January. The Azerbaijan fighter has lost four of his last five, but two of those defeats came against current lightweight king Justin Gaethje, which are a little more forgivable.

“Ataman” is a Muay Thai specialist with devastating kicks that tie well to his hands and top-five takedown defense (90%) in UFC history, considering the sample.

Both of these warriors want to go to battle on their feet. Will the pressure and boxing of Torres swarm another foe before he can even get out of neutral, or will Fiziev’s experience and head defense allow him to find his own openings as the fight progresses?

Predict the Fiziev vs. Torres Winner at UFC Baku on PrizePicks

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Fiziev vs. Torres Pick for UFC Baku

Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres - 9.25 Minutes Fight Time

This fight time projection of length is already a statement of confidence in Fiziev relative to Torres’ previous opponents. Running some quick math, you need at least one round to reach 5 minutes, so this is nearly 2 full rounds.

That sort of checks out with Fiziev’s own history. Ruffy was the quickest to get him out of there, but Ruffy and Gaethje are building storms. Torres, and his gigantic 3.21% knockdown rate (KD%), starts at 100% and would likely fade from there.

Almost certainly, this projection correlates well with the fight’s winner. A longer fight favors the experienced veteran. The model’s convincing early-finish result (72.4%) probably would benefit the underdog.

Make Your Fiziev vs. Torres Pick for UFC Baku on PrizePicks

Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Shara Magomedov 1.25x | Michel Pereira 3.57x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Magomedov vs. Pereira Model Results:

One of the UFC’s most unique, popular fighters makes his latest appearance in Baku on Saturday.

Shara “Bullet” Magomedov can’t even be sanctioned for MMA in the United States because of his glass eye, but the Russian striking sensation has not let his loss of vision slow down what has become an interesting and fun career in combat sports.

The kick-heavy attack of Shara almost doesn’t seem real, and the constant guessing it forces from opponents has led to a spectacular highlight or two.

However, Magomedov might be a little cooler than he is practical. His 43% striking defense is a problem, and he doesn’t have much grappling. He also failed to find a way past Michael “Venom” Page’s similar style.

Therefore, there are openings for Michel “Demolidor” Pereira to compete here. The Xtreme Couture training partner of Sean Strickland hasn’t had much momentum in the last nine months, losing by knockout to Kyle Daukaus before a split-decision win over Zach Reese.

This is a far cry from the Brazilian’s four-fight finishing streak shortly after the move to middleweight.

Pereira has endurance issues, which work against his case to outpoint the agile, decision-oriented Russian as the fight progresses, but he’s got the upside to wrestle (1.21 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) with fast strikes of his own. This is probably the most credential submission threat of Bullet’s MMA career, as well.

Predict the Magomedov vs. Pereira Winner at UFC Baku on PrizePicks

Magomedov vs. Pereira Pick for UFC Baku

Michel Pereira – 41.5 Significant Strikes

The model’s lean toward a full fight at 61.0% has to stem from both of these fighters not carrying much power on paper. They’ve both posted a KD% below 0.45%, and Magomedov has yet to show any submission liability.

With that the case, Pereira’s average pace (8.75 significant strike attempts per minute) may not be stellar, but this is a pace-up spot opposite the kickboxer, who also struggles defensively.

Perhaps it’s a fear of Pereira’s fleeting chin after the Daukaus result, but there seems to be a healthy projection of length in this fight. Magomedov hasn’t finished an opponent inside seven minutes since December 2022. 

Make Your Magomedov vs. Pereira Pick for UFC Baku on PrizePicks

Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Nazim Sadykhov 1.38x | Matheus Camilo 2.85x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)

Four fighters, including Fiziev in the main event, represent Azerbaijan on this card. It’s got a disproportionate number of UFC fighters compared to the country’s population of 10.5 million. Nazim Sadykhov is among them.

“Black Wolf” certainly took fighting in his home country to heart last time the UFC visited Baku. He bloodied Nikolas Motta in a wild, come-from-behind (T)KO where he landed 93 significant strikes in under 10 minutes.

Coming from behind is nothing new for Sadykhov, who has faced some sort of peril in six straight fights. It’s always interesting. A talented underdog like Matheus Camilo, at just 25 years old, is sure to bring the fight to him early again.

Another Xtreme Couture product, Camilo got his first UFC win over Viacheslav “Slava Claus” Borshchev in November, using 5 takedowns to fight fatigue and keep the Russian striker grounded. He was submitted by Gabe Green (3-3 UFC record) in his debut.

Camilo is a developing prospect with the tools and speed to compete early, but it's in the grappling exchanges where Sadykhov could shine. All three of the Brazilian underdog’s losses are via submission, and Sadykhov has submitted multiple-time UFC winners.

Predict the Magomedov vs. Pereira Winner at UFC Baku on PrizePicks

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Sadykhov vs. Camilo Pick for UFC Baku

Matheus Camilo – 30.5 Significant Strikes

For a guy who was quickly reversed and submitted in his UFC debut, it’s a bit wild that Camilo hasn’t faced a takedown in over 37 minutes in the octagon.

That will almost certainly change on Saturday at UFC Baku.

Sadykhov, hailing from a Serra-Longo Gym with wrestling in its blood, averages 2.44 takedown attempts per 15 minutes, with a pretty clear path to winning this fight dominantly.

It’ll be interesting to see how bright Camilo burns early in this bout. A quick knockout is seemingly his best chance to win, but extreme fatigue against his first two UFC foes has to be at the front of his mind, as well.

Make Your Sadykhov vs. Camilo Pick for UFC Baku on PrizePicks

Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Asu Almabayev 1.31x | Charles Johnson 3.22x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

Almabayev vs. Johnson Model Results:

This is a crucial fight for Asu Almabayev, ranked seventh in UFC’s new rankings this past Monday. With a high ranking, Almabayev needs to avoid moving backward, as several prospects have against this particular opponent.

Charles Johnson claimed the undefeated UFC records of both Joshua Van and Lone’er Kavanugh, but Almabayev’s blemish against Manel Kape won’t see that trend continue. Charles “Inner G” Johnson is a game veteran who has faced elite competition most of his career. At 5-foot-9 with a70-inch reach, Johnson is huge and long for the 125-pound weight class, and he’s improved his takedown defense (69%) and sprawl, which often led to early losses.

At this point, Almabayev will try to replicate a historically successful recipe against the American striker. Johnson is 0-4 against opponents who landed at least 3 takedowns. The Kazak fighter attempts a whopping 10.62 takedowns per 15 minutes.

It’s extremely rare that one factor should completely swing a UFC fight, but Almabayev’s offensive wrestling is that factor.

If it works, Johnson will have a hard 15 minutes at the office but has managed to avoid a submission loss against championship-level competition in 27 pro fights.

However, in the Kape fight, Almabayev was shut down entirely, and the result was ugly. That’s the path to an upset in this ranked flyweight battle:

Predict the Almabayev vs. Johnson Winner at UFC Baku on PrizePicks

Almabayev vs. Johnson Pick for UFC Baku

Asu Almabayev – 29.5 Significant Strikes

It’s astonishing to see a heavily favored UFC fighter with such a low forecast for significant strikes at flyweight — but that’s just Almabayev’s game.

He lands just 2.31 significant strikes per minute overall, and Johnson’s length and quality striking defense (55%) won’t help should this fight take place at distance. What would help this projection, though, is if the American could keep it there, where he’s more likely to have the advantage.

There’s almost an inverse logic to Almabayev’s strike projection.

If he’s scoring takedowns and winning, it’s probably lower. If he’s trapped at distance like he was against Kape, he posted 40 significant strikes in under three rounds. It just came at the cost of a (T)KO loss.

Make Your Almabayev vs. Johnson Pick for UFC Baku on PrizePicks

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Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Ikram Aliskerov 1.36x | Brunno Ferreira 3.03x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Aliskerov vs. Ferreira Model Results:

A trip to Western Asia will typically bring out a Khabib Nurmagomedov-disciple or two, and it’ll be fun to see Ikram Aliskerov back in the cage.

The Russian middleweight is coming off the most crucial and credentialed win of his UFC career, turning aside Junyong “The Iron Turtle” Park, a nine-time UFC winner, in a dominant victory:

That went much better than Aliskerov’s first main event, which was a short-notice opportunity against Robert Whittaker that he lost in 109 seconds. Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev — two former champions — are the only losses on his resume. They were both via knockout.

That presents an opening for “The Hulk”, who will test your chin. Brunno Ferreira entered UFC with four first-round KOs in five tries, and he’s still showing a 1.77 KD% despite recent steps up in competition.

He defeated Marvin Vettori by decision before a rematch with Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues that didn’t go his way.

In this matchup, it’s Ferreira’s 61% takedown defense that could be an issue. Aliskerov has landed 6 of his 10 UFC-affiliated takedown attempts so far and showed classic Nurmagomedov-trained ground control skills in his last appearance.

However, you can never count out Ferreira from an early puncher’s chance, especially given Aliskerov’s sketchy history in surviving those moments.

Predict the Aliskerov vs. Ferreira Winner at UFC Baku on PrizePicks

Aliskerov vs. Ferreira Pick for UFC Baku

Brunno Ferreira – 28.5 Significant Strikes

Brunno Ferreira is aware he doesn’t get paid by the minute.

He’s crested 29 significant strikes in just two career appearances: the ones that entered the third round. By and large, the Brazilian finisher hasn’t needed much time to win outside the rankings, and an early KO loss to Nursulton Ruziboev also looms large.

In this matchup, keeping his feet to score significant strikes at all will be a challenge. Aliskerov doesn't allow many significant strikes — only 25.7  per fight, although that average includes his last fight, where landed 78..

Make Your Aliskerov vs. Ferreira Pick for UFC Baku on PrizePicks

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Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Prediction for UFC Fight Night

Fight Winner Payouts: Abus Magomedov 1.85x | Michael Oleksiejczuk 1.88x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 lbs.)

Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk Model Results:

The UFC Baku main card opens with a middleweight matchup that will stress-test potential improvements in both Abus Magomedov and Michal Oleksiejczuk’s games.

Through fights with Sean Strickland, Caio Borralho, and Joe Pyfer, Abus Magomedov has faced the best of the best. However, late-fight fatigue got the best of him in each of those matchups.

Borralho is a noteworthy name in Oleksiejczuk’s journey as well. Following Oleksiejczuk's 2023 loss to a top-five contender, “Hussar” was invited to join Borralho’s Fighting Nerds gym and shore up grappling issues, which account for five of his seven UFC losses.

Those problems haven’t surfaced yet during Oleksiejczuk’s three-fight win streak, where his elite boxing and power (1.31 KD%) have been able to shine.

In the standup, Magomedov’s four-inch reach advantage will be vital to the fighter with a wider variety of strikes. Magomedov definitely has the edge on the ground, with great efficiency on takedowns (59% accuracy) and two career submission attempts.

Oleksiejczuk tends to build throughout the fight with his cost-efficient effectiveness; we’ll see if Magomedov is able to hang on if this fight is extended.

Predict the Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk Winner at UFC Baku on PrizePicks

Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Michal Oleksiejczuk – 31.5 Significant Strikes

Oleksiejczuk’s significant strikes projection on PrizePicks is truly one of the more interesting ones on the entire UFC Baku card.

Upon further research this week, I’m not sure exactly how much Oleksiejczuk’s grappling improvements will hold weight. In his last five fights, he’s faced just one guy averaging at least 1.00 takedowns per 15 minutes landed, and it was Gerald Meerschaert, who was 38-years-old with the attrition of 23 pro fights under his belt.

No one except the members of his Fighting Nerds gym really knows how much he’s improved, and Magomedov is an efficient wrestler when he’s fresh. If the German fighter can land takedowns, that could really curb the underdog’s significant strike totals.

Make Your Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick for UFC Baku on PrizePicks

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Fight Night: How It Works

I've created a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results" above.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be eligible.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis

Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night goes down this Saturday in Baku, Azerbaijan, in West Asia, with the main card set to start at 12 p.m. ET. The card is stacked with fighters who can climb up the new UFC rankings with a win.

Lock in your UFC predictions on PrizePicks for today's main card, which starts at 12 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Fight Night, headlined by Fiziev vs. Torres, and lock in your Lineup to win real money if you're right.

You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money, available in 35 states!

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