Following No. 6 seed Tennessee vs. No. 1 seed Michigan, the No. 2 seed UConn Huskies (32-5) vs. the No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (35-2) caps Sunday, March 29’s two-game slate for regional finals in the NCAA Tournament.
Today’s game tips off at 5:05 p.m. ET on CBS, with PrizePicks Team Picks tabbing Duke as a 5.5-point favorite. UConn could advance to its third national semifinals since 2023, and the Blue Devils look to make back-to-back national semifinals for the first time since 1991 and 1992.
Below, we’ll make a UConn vs. Duke prediction for college basketball projections and break down player picks on PrizePicks.
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UConn vs. Duke Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
UConn head coach Dan Hurley continues to work his postseason magic. Following a meh performance vs. No. 15 seed Furman in the first round (82-71 win), the Huskies have covered back-to-back point spreads against notable programs in UCLA and Michigan State.
In the last two games, Connecticut allowed only 60.0 points per game (PPG), a 42.4% field goal percentage, and 4.5 3-pointers per contest.
Similar to its 71-65 first-round win over No. 16 seed Siena, Duke had another close call vs. No. 5 seed St. John’s with an 80-75 win as 6.5-point favorites. The Blue Devils are now 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in the NCAA Tournament.
Duke was finally at full health in the Round of 16, as G Caleb Foster returned from injury with 19 crucial minutes and 11 points. Blue Devil C Patrick Ngongba II was also in his second game back from injury and posted 17 minutes, compared to 13 minutes in the second round vs. No. 9 TCU.
However, Foster is questionable for today’s regional final. He provided a spark off the bench late in the second half, helping propel the win vs. St. John’s.
UConn vs. Duke Spread, Over/Under
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Duke has a 1.42x payout if it wins today. UConn is an underdog in an NCAA Tournament game for only the second time since 2023, carrying a 2.85x payout if it wins.
With two strong defenses colliding, Sunday’s over/under features a low 134.5 total on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils -5.5
- Over/Under: 134.5
- Game Winner Payout: UConn 2.85x | Duke 1.42x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
UConn vs. Duke Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/29/26
Duke’s escaped a pair of close NCAA Tournament games, but it’s found a way to keep advancing. Over three tournament games, the Blue Devils held opponents to 38.9% shooting while winning the rebounding battle by +14.0 rebounds per game.
However, Duke has yet to face a team in the top 50 of offensive or defensive rebounding rate in the NCAA Tournament. UConn ranks 32nd in offensive rebounding percentage (91st percentile) and 66th in defensive rebounding rate (82nd percentile). The Huskies are averaging a +8.0 rebound advantage per game in the NCAA Tournament.
The Blue Devils have played with fire, giving up 66.0 field goal attempts per game in their last three outings — surpassing 58.4 for the season (46th percentile). As mentioned, opponents have struggled with efficiency against this defense, but Duke has yet to face a team in the top 30 of Bart Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency in the NCAA Tournament.
Ranked 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency paired with a 57.2% 2-point percentage (93rd percentile), UConn’s offense could be a threat on Sunday. For context, the Blue Devils last two opponents, TCU (40th percentile) and St. John’s (47th percentile), were outside the top half nationally for 2-point percentage.
Since 2023’s national title run, the Huskies are an absurd 16-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games.
UConn vs. Duke Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/29/26
Here are the top UConn vs. Duke picks to target for Sunday, March 29, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks are headlined by UConn C Tarris Reed Jr. and Duke C Patrick Ngongba II.
UConn C Tarris Reed Jr. vs. Duke Projection: 23.5 Pts + Rebs
- Tarris Reed Jr. has posted 35.3 combined points and rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament, partially inflated by his first-round 31-point, 27-rebound outburst.
- The 6’11” big man still recorded 24.0 combined points and boards per contest in his last two appearances.
- Duke allows only 7.6 offensive rebounds per game (90th percentile), but that’s elevated to 10.5 over its last two games.
- UConn will be the best offensive rebounding team the Blue Devils have faced in the tournament, and Reed’s 14.1% offensive rebounding rate finished fifth in the Big East, per Bart Torvik.
- Duke is in the 18th percentile of dunk shot distribution allowed, and Reed shoots 62.7% on 2-pointers.
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Duke C Patrick Ngongba II vs. UConn Projection: 7 Points
- The Blue Devils could use a healthy Patrick Ngongba for this matchup, but he’s posted only 15.0 minutes per game in his first two games back from injury.
- He’s recorded a measly 1.5 shots and 3.5 points per game over two NCAA Tournament appearances.
- Furthermore, the Huskies give up a 45.7% 2-point percentage (97th percentile), and Tarris Reed Jr. has an elite 4.83 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
- With 29 3-point shots on the season (0.9 per game), Ngongba heavily relies on shots in the paint.
Make UConn vs. Duke Picks on PrizePicks
Sunday’s regional final between storied programs could be controlled by the battle of the paint. Both teams have excelled on the glass while controlling paint points in the NCAA Tournament. Will UConn or Duke win the interior clash, impacting regional final picks?
You can make your UConn vs. Duke picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
