No. 2 seed UConn’s and No. 6 seed Tennessee’s wins on Friday night put a bow on the final eight teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Regional final matchups will take place on Saturday and Sunday, with winners advancing to next weekend’s national semifinal in Indianapolis.
The Round of 8 action tips off on Saturday, March 28, at 6:09 p.m. ET, and the final battle takes place at 5:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 29.
Let’s navigate point spreads and totals for all four regional final games on PrizePicks Team Picks, circling college basketball projections for the best NCAA Tournament picks in the Round of 8.
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Best NCAA Tournament Picks for Regional Final Games
The Big Ten has become the fourth conference to send four teams to regional final games in the NCAA Tournament, joining the Big East (2009), ACC (2016), and SEC (2025).
No. 9 Iowa and No. 6 Tennessee are the highest seeds in the field, with the remaining six squads on top-three seedlines. The West and East regions feature chalk matchups, with No. 2 Purdue facing No. 1 Arizona and No. 2 UConn colliding with No. 1 Duke.
Keep tabs on the Playbook’s college basketball coverage for predictions for all of Saturday and Sunday’s Round of 8 games. Let’s dive into our favorite picks for every regional final on PrizePicks Team Picks.
All NCAA Tournament spreads and over/unders are via PrizePicks Team Picks. Numbers represent what you will earn if you win — i.e. 2x means a $100 entry pays out $200.
Payouts are live as of publishing. All are subject to change.
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 3 Illinois Pick on Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
Over/Under Pick: Over 138.5 (1.92x) | Under 138.5 (1.88x)
Day, Time: Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET
TV: TBS, truTV
- The under is 2-1 for both teams in the NCAA Tournament.
- Bart Torvik ranks Iowa in the 99th percentile for the slowest adjusted tempos, while Illinois sits in the 76th percentile of the category.
- The Hawkeyes attempt only 53.5 shots per game (fourth percentile) and surrender a measly 49.5 field goal attempts per contest (99th percentile).
- During the NCAA Tournament, Iowa has given up only 52.7 shots per game.
- The Fighting Illini lean on 31.1 3-point shots per game (97th percentile), but the Hawkeyes cede just 19.9 attempted triples per contest (88th).
- Iowa averaged 26.5 free throw shots per game in its first two NCAA Tournament games, but Illinois allows only 12.2 attempts at the charity stripe per game (100th percentile).
- Furthermore, the Hawkeyes made 13-of-30 3-point shots (43.3%) in the Round of 16. The Illini could have the answer by holding opponents to 30.9% on treys (91st percentile).
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 1 Arizona Pick on Spread for NCAA Tournament
CBB Spread Pick: Purdue +5.5 (2.04x) | Arizona -5.5 (1.78x)
Day, Time: Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET
TV: TBS, truTV
- Both teams are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last four games. Purdue comes off a two-point win vs. No. 11 Texas, while Arizona dominated No. 4 Arkansas in a 21-point victory.
- The Wildcats continue to pummel teams in the paint, shooting 55.3% on 2-pointers (86th percentile) while ranking in the 78th and 76th percentiles of dunk and close-2 shot distributions.
- Opponents convert 53.3% of 2-point attempts (31st percentile) vs. the Boilermakers.
- Furthermore, Arizona F Ivan Kharchenkov (6’7”), F Koa Peat (6’8”), and C Motiejus Krivas (7’2”) form a towering frontcourt.
- Purdue may be at a height disadvantage, led by Boilermaker G Fletcher Loyer (6’5”), F Trey Kaufman-Renn (6’9”), and C Oscar Cluff (6’11”).
- The Wildcats feast on second-chance points, ranking in the 99th percentile of offensive rebounding rate, and Purdue logs 22.7 defensive boards per game (58th percentile).
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No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Michigan Pick on Spread for NCAA Tournament
CBB Spread Pick: Tennessee +7.5 (1.88x) | Michigan -7.5 (1.88x)
Day, Time: Sunday, 2:15 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
- Michigan is only 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games, but it's covered the last two games with an average margin of +18.0 points per game.
- Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its past seven games and a perfect 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.
- The Volunteers are one of the few teams nationally that can mirror the Wolverines’ height, thanks to Tennessee F Nate Ament (6’10”), F J.P. Estrella (6’11”), and C Felix Okpara (6’11”).
- Continuing with the Vols’ frontcourt, it's in the 93rd percentile of close-2 shot distribution allowed, and Michigan sits in the 84th percentile for close-2 shot distribution on offense.
- Backed by a 36.9% mark from beyond the arc (92nd percentile), the Wolverines are dangerous from deep.
- UT may have the answer yet again, holding opponents to 30.3% on triples (96th percentile).
- This could trend toward a slow pace with the Volunteers in the 80th percentile for the slowest adjusted tempos.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 1 Duke Pick on Over/Under for NCAA Tournament
Over/Under Pick: Over 134.5 (1.92x) | Under 134.5 (1.88x)
Day, Time: Sunday, 5:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
- Duke relies on its paint attack, ranking in the 90th percentile for close-2 shot distribution while shooting 60.3% on 2-pointers (98th percentile).
- Sunday’s matchup could be full of 2-pointers, as UConn is in the 82nd percentile of dunk shot distribution and cashes in 57.2% of 2-point looks (93rd percentile).
- However, both defenses are excellent around the rim, as the Blue Devils allow a 44.8% close-2 shot distribution (90th percentile).
- Plus, the Huskies’ interior defense is anchored by UConn C Tarris Reed Jr., who boasts an elite 4.82 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
- Duke is in the 75th percentile for the slowest adjusted tempos, compared to Connecticut in the 87th percentile.
- The under is 7-3 over the Huskies’ last 10 games.
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Make NCAA Tournament Regional Final Picks on PrizePicks
Every No. 1 seed is favored by at least 5.5 points in the regional finals. Plus, Illinois is a 7.5-point favorite, and that’s tied as the largest point spread for the Round of 8 on PrizePicks Team Picks. Will Saturday and Sunday deliver any upsets with regional crowns on the line?
March isn't just about your bracket. You can make your NCAA Tournament picks for every game on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money if you're right.
Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make real-money predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
