The first pitch of the AL Central matchup between the Minnesota Twins (16-22) vs. Cleveland Guardians (20-19) is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on Friday, May 8. The Guardians are the favorites to win. returning a 1.66x payout to win, via PrizePicks.
After an 11-3 win in the first game of their last against the Nationals, the Twins dropped the final two games by a combined score of 22-7. They have lost five straight series, with their last series win coming during the April 13-15 vs. the Red Sox.
The Guardians salvaged a split in the four-game series against another AL Central opponent, the Kansas City Royals. They maintain a 1.5-game lead in a closely contested AL Central.
Below, we'll break down our Twins vs. Guardians prediction and picks for Friday’s MLB matchup, including the run line, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
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Twins vs. Guardians Prediction, Winner, Over/Under – Friday, May 8
For this AL Central matchup, Twins SP Connor Prielipp (4.42 xFIP, 14 IP in 2026) and Guardians SP Parker Messick (3.02 xFIP, 41.1 IP in 2026) will square off on the mound.
The Guardians are the only team above .500 in the AL Central, but every team in the division is close, separated by 3.5 games from the Guardians on top to Twins at the bottom.
Cleveland may struggle to push away from the pack, as no aspect of this team is particularly strong. The pitching staff is average, ranking 13th in xERA (4.05) and xFIP (4.01), while the bats are nothing to write home about, ranking 21st in wOBA (.314) and 18th in wRC+ (97).
The Twins, despite entering the matchup six games under .500 and last in the division, could leave this weekend only a half-game out of first place if they sweep the series.
That might be tough due to the team's inconsistencies. From April 6-14, the Twins led the league with 60 runs; since then, their 85 runs rank 20th.
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Twins vs. Guardians Winner Payout, Over/Under – Friday, May 8
The Guardians enter Friday’s game as home favorites, returning a 1.66x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Twins vs. Guardians game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Guardians -1.5 (2.38x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Twins 2.12x | Guardians 1.66x
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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Twins vs. Guardians Prediction on Over/Under – 5/8/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Twins vs. Guardians prediction on the run total for Friday, May 8.
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- Despite Messick’s 36.8% chase rate ranking in the 94th percentile, Minnesota shows above-average discipline with its 28.2% chase rate ranking ninth in MLB.
- Messick and Prielipp are both left-handed pitchers, and both teams hit lefties well this year; the Guardians rank seventh this season with a 109 wRC+, and the Twins are 12th at 99.
- Prielipp ranks in the 78th percentile with a 26.8% strikeout rate, but Cleveland’s 18.0% strikeout rate against lefties is the second-lowest in the league.
- The Twins' bullpen is struggling this season, ranking 28th with a 4.98 xFIP.
- The Guardians' bullpen is allowing 1.1 home runs per nine innings, the fourth-highest in baseball.
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Twins vs. Guardians Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 5/8/26
Here are the top Twins vs. Guardians picks to target on PrizePicks for Friday, May 8. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Chase DeLauter and Byron Buxton.
Guardians RF Chase DeLauter vs. Twins Projection: 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
- DeLauter is currently one of the hottest hitters in baseball, with his .652 wOBA since April 30 ranking second in the league.
- The Guardians outfielder has multiple hits in five out of his last eight games.
- The Guardians have relied on DeLauter to make contact, as his 16.2% whiff rate ranks in the 90th percentile, and his 10.9% strikeout rate is in the 95th percentile.
- Prielipp throws his slider more than any other pitch (39.7%), and DeLauter has an impressive .453 wOBA against the pitch this season.
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Twins CF Byron Buxton vs. Guardians Projection: 6.5 Hitter FS
- Buxton’s 25% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 31st percentile, could come into play against Messick’s 28.4% strikeout rate that ranks in the 84th percentile.
- Although it is a small sample size, Buxton is hitless in three at-bats against Messick with 1 K.
- The Twins’ centerfielder has struggled against left-handed pitchers this season, with only a .261 wOBA as opposed to .404 against righties.
- Buxton’s success has come largely at home with a 188 wRC+ compared to 45 on the road, where he'll play today.
- Buxton does not have a good history at Progressive Field, with just a .618 OPS in 39 games.
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Make Your Twins vs. Guardians Picks on PrizePicks
The Twins can get back into contention in the AL Central in this three-game weekend series, as the Guardians hold the division lead, just 3.5 games ahead of the last-place Twins.
The Twins vs. Guardians series starts on Friday with a pitching matchup between two up-and-coming southpaws on the mound in Connor Prielipp and Parker Messick.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your Twins vs. Guardians picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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