The 2025 NBA Christmas slate features five matchups of nonstop action, as the Cavaliers (16-14) and Knicks (20-8) begin the festivities at 12:00 p.m. ET and the Timberwolves (19-10) vs. Nuggets (21-7) cap the day with a 10:30 p.m. ET tip.
For the lineup on ABC and ESPN, PrizePicks is offering a sleigh full of player stat projections. Plenty of notable faces will take the court, including Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nuggets C Nikola Jokic, but which players are among the top picks?
Let’s look at the top NBA Christmas games player picks by diving into the stats and PrizePicks’ projections.
Best NBA Christmas Games Player Picks on PrizePicks
Among the 10 teams in action on Thursday, nine squads are currently in position to appear in the NBA postseason. The 12-19 Mavericks are the lone exception, as PrizePicks Team Picks tabs them with a 5x payout to appear in the NBA playoffs. Dallas F Cooper Flagg is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year (1.35x payout).
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Gilgeous-Alexander (1.81x), Jokic (2.85x), and Lakers G Luka Doncic (7.14x) are the three favorites to win the NBA MVP Award, and all three players should be active on Christmas.
With that said, we have plenty of intriguing players to pick from on Thursday. Which projections could be the top NBA Christmas game player picks?
Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Thunder Projection: 17.5 Points
- Spurs F Victor Wembanyama has played only 20.8 minutes per game in December, compared to 30.6 minutes per contest on the season. He’s still totaled 17.8 points per game this month.
- According to Dunks & Threes, Oklahoma City ranks third in shot distribution around the rim allowed. Plus, NBA Advanced Stats have the Thunder giving up the fewest points in the paint per contest.
- Wemby attempts 45.7% of his field goal attempts within 10 feet of the basket.
- Thunder C Chet Holmgren touts an elite 102.7 defensive rating, via Fantasy Labs, providing the French phenom with tough one-on-one matchups.
- On Tuesday, Wembanyama managed to score only 12 points against OKC, attempting 9 field goals (16.5 shots per game on the year).
Warriors F Jimmy Butler vs. Mavericks Projection: 21.5 Points
As the Warriors’ second-leading scorer with 19.9 PPG, how could F Jimmy Butler fare in Thursday’s 5:00 p.m. ET tip-off against the Mavericks?
- Butler is enjoying a hot streak over his previous three games, netting 25.7 PPG and a 59.6% field goal percentage.
- NBA Stats have the veteran forward attempting 67.1% of his shots in the paint; Dallas surrenders the most points in the paint per contest.
- Furthermore, the Mavs are 28th in shot distribution around the rim allowed.
- Butler could feast against mediocre rim protection, as Dallas C Anthony Davis touts a deflating 117.4 defensive rating (104.5 across his career).
Mavericks F Cooper Flagg vs. Warriors Projection: 29.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Flagg carries excellent rookie averages: 19.2 PPG, 6.4 rebounds per game, and 3.8 assists per game. In December, he's put up 24.1. PPG, 6.2 RPG , and 4.5 APG.
- Over his last five games, the first-year man is recording 27.6 PPG.
- The Warriors rank 17th in shot distribution around the rim allowed, and Flagg takes 52.7% of his shots within 10 feet of the basket.
- The former Duke Blue Devil has racked up 7.2 RPG in his last five appearances — Golden State ranks 21st in rebounding percentage.
Rockets G Reed Sheppard vs. Lakers Projection: 2.5 Made 3-pointers
Will Rockets G Reed Sheppard keep up his 3-point production off the bench?
- Houston’s second-year guard has carved out a role as a 3-point specialist, averaging 6.2 tries per game paired with an efficient 43.5 percentage.
- In December, Sheppard holds a 40.9% 3-point clip while posting 2.7 makes per game. He's converted from deep at least three times in four of his last five outings.
- The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shot distribution allowed and 26th in made treys allowed per game.
- The former Kentucky Wildcat has launched 8.4 shots per game from beyond the arc over the previous five, compared to his average of 6.2 3-point attempts on the season.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic vs. Timberwolves Projection: 10.5 Assists
- The three-time MVP leads the Association with 10.9 APG.
- In December, Jokic is averaging 10.8 APG, and he’s reached 11 assists in four of the past six games.
- According to NBA Advanced Stats, The Joker’s 18.1 potential assists per game leads the league, giving his lofty assist average potentially trustworthy volume.
- His 12.9 adjusted assists per contest (first) provide even more possible backing for his hefty 10.5 projected assists.
Make NBA Christmas Picks on PrizePicks
Fill your stocking with player projections at PrizePicks. A smorgasbord of them is available for Christmas Day’s five-game NBA slate. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and earn real-money rewards if you’re right.
PrizePicks Team Picks even features point spreads and over/under totals.
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