Top MLB Home Run Picks Today on PrizePicks – Tuesday, July 7

All 30 MLB teams are taking the field on Tuesday, and two of them will even do so twice when the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals partake in a doubleheader. It’s a slate chock-full of exciting matchups, so we could see plenty of post-Fourth of July fireworks. 

Here at PrizePicks, we have tons of home run projections on the board to add to your MLB picks today. Many hitters have already been singled out by users as popular home run picks for the day’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the most-picked MLB home run projections for Tuesday, July 7, including what makes each player a potential target for home run predictions. 

Make your MLB home run picks for Tuesday, July 7 on PrizePicks now.  

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Top Home Run Picks Today – Tuesday, July 7

With the All-Star Game and MLB trade deadline still on the horizon, 19 players have already reached the 20-home run benchmark. Another 10 are just one huge night away from joining that club — a testament to the current state of the game’s natural pop.

Of course, it takes more than raw power to club a home run. Countless elements including weather, ballpark dimensions, pitcher/hitter splits, tendencies, angles, bat speed, and more all go into the outcomes of batted-ball events. Which players could be in the best positions to go deep on Tuesday? 

Daily home run projections are listed as Demons on PrizePicks, coming with higher payouts as a result. With that said, home runs can only be selected as “More” than 0.5. 

Let’s take a look at the most popular home run picks today on PrizePicks. Picks are listed at time of writing.

1. Braves 1B Matt Olson
2. Rays 3B Junior Caminero
3. Mets LF Juan Soto
4. Yankees 1B Ben Rice
5. Nationals OF James Wood
6. Phillies 1B Bryce Harper
7. Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe
8. Cubs LF Ian Happ

Three home run picks stand out as potential targets today. Let’s dive into the list, including a weather report from RotoGrinders.

Unless otherwise noted, data used in this article is from Baseball Savant or FanGraphs.

Nationals OF James Wood

Astros vs. Nationals – 6:45 p.m. ET

Astros Starting Pitcher: Tatsuya Imai

MLB Weather Report: 82 degrees, 48% chance of rain, 4 mph east wind

• Wood is hitting the absolute cover off the ball, already recording 24 home runs with a .541 SLG, .274 ISO, and 154 wRC+. 
• A major reason for that improvement is his fast-swing percentage rising by 4% and his barrel rate jumping 6.5% year over year.
• While Wood is pulling the ball right around his 30.1% career clip (29.8% in 2026), he’s lifting it in the air far more often (39.5% vs. 29.2% for his career).
• The 23-year-old sits in the 100th percentile for xSLG (.611), average exit velocity (95.2 mph), hard-hit rate (60.1%), and more. 
• Imai is surrendering 1.49 HR/9 in his debut season to go with a 46.3% hard-hit rate. 

Add James Wood to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Mets LF Juan Soto

Royals vs. Mets – 7:10 p.m. ET

Royals Starting Pitcher: Seth Lugo

MLB Weather Report: 72 degrees, partly cloudy skies, 9 mph north wind

• In addition to boasting tremendous plate discipline (16.2% walk rate, 12.3% strikeout rate), Soto has a .270 ISO and a .570 SLG that’d be his best since 2020.
• The star outfielder has raised his fly ball rate to a career-high 42.4%, resulting in a new personal record 15.4-degree average launch angle.
• Soto’s bat speed is down 1.6 mph, but he’s making his swings count more often. In three years of tracking, he’s never owned a higher squared-up contact clip (44.7%) or squared-up swing percentage (37.3%). 
• Lugo is quietly having a poor season in Kansas City, sitting in the fifth percentile in whiff rate and the 11th percentile in both fastball velocity (91.6 mph) and average exit velocity (90.6 mph). 
• The veteran right-hander has given up 5 home runs in his last two starts and 11 in his last eight outings overall. 

Add Juan Soto to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Phillies 1B Bryce Harper

Phillies vs. Reds – 7:10 p.m. ET

Reds Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott

MLB Weather Report: 86 degrees, clear skies, 4 mph north wind

• One of the game’s biggest stars continues to produce at the plate. Harper’s power numbers are up after a slight decrease, evidenced by 2025 to 2026 spikes in ISO (+.025) and SLG (+.033). 
• This is the third year in a row and the sixth time in seven seasons that Harper has maintained a hard-hit rate of at least 47%. 
• Apparently Harper hasn’t gotten the memo that he’s set to turn 34 years old in October. His bat speed (74.4 mph) and fast-swing rate (47.9%) are both his best dating back to the stats being available in 2024.
• Abbott is making fewer bats miss this year; his 6.92 K/9 is a career-low mark. Moreover, he’s in the 23rd percentile for exit velo (90.0 mph) and the 41st for hard-hit clip (39.6%). 
• Perhaps Abbott’s worst pitch this year is his four-seam fastball, which yields a .308 xBA and .522 xSLG. Harper’s respective numbers against that offering are .328 and .682. 

Add Bryce Harper to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks

This is shaping up to be one of the busier days of the baseball calendar, so be sure to take advantage of that on PrizePicks. With dozens of MLB home run picks to choose from, the trio of Wood, Soto, and Harper might just lead the way given their statistical outlooks. 

Don’t wait until first pitch — make your MLB home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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