On Thursday, MLB has 10 games on the schedule with many polarizing matchups set to take place. Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber is one of many hitters who are worth keeping an eye on.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for all your MLB picks, and many hitters have already been targeted by users as some of the most popular home run picks throughout Thursday’s action.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, May 7
Belting a home run is one of the hardest achievements that a player can achieve on the diamond. As a result, it can be quite difficult to predict which players could go yard on any given day.
Several factors can be attributed to launching a home run into the stands. How hard has a player been hitting the ball as of late? Has the opposing starter been surrendering several fly balls? Could weather conditions play a role?
Home run projections are labeled as Demons on PrizePicks, which comes with a higher payout. You can only choose “More” on home run projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here’s a look at the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Yankees OF Aaron Judge
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- Phillies OF Kyle Schwarber
- Nationals OF James Wood
- Reds OF Elly De La Cruz
- Mets OF Juan Soto
- Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras
- Pirates OF Oneil Cruz
- Orioles OF Gunnar Henderson
- Phillies OF Bryce Harper
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: J.T. Ginn (5 GS, 0-1, 4.66 xFIP, 34.1% hard-hit, 38.1% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 64 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds toward home plate
- Schwarber has already slugged 11 home runs, which is tied for fifth in the majors.
- The Phillies’ power hitter has belted 9 of his 11 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season.
- Schwarber has produced a 26.8% home run-to-fly ball rate, which is currently the third-best rate of his career.
- The Phillies’ star has logged a 50.6% fly ball rate, while Ginn has surrendered a career-worst 38.1% fly ball rate.
- Schwarber has also registered a 19.8% barrel rate (97th percentile), a .488 xSLG (85th), and a 46.9% hard-hit rate (75th).
- Ginn has given up 4 home runs while also yielding a 1.23 HR/9 and a 12.5% HR/FB rate.
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Red Sox 1B Willson Contreras
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:00 p.m. ET
Rays Starting Pitcher: Griffin Jax (2 GS, 2-1, 5.86 xFIP, 46.2% hard-hit, 40.5% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 61 degrees, clear skies, and 5 mph winds out to RF
- Contreras has launched 20+ home runs in four of his past five seasons and already has belted 8 home runs in 2026.
- The Red Sox first baseman has slugged 4 of his 8 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season.
- Contreras has tallied a 23.5% home run-to-fly ball rate, the third-highest of his 11-year career.
- Contreras has registered a 19.0% barrel rate, ranking in the 96th percentile.
- The Red Sox star has also recorded a career-high 39.5% fly ball rate, topping his previous high of 37.5% in 2025. Meanwhile, Jax has surrendered a 40.5% fly ball rate, which is the second-highest of his six-year career.
- Jax has coughed up 3 home runs, which breaks down to a 1.93 HR/9 and a career-high 20.0% HR/FB rate.
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Padres SS Xander Bogaerts
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres – 10:00 p.m. ET
Cardinals Starting Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore (7 GS, 1-1, 4.93 xFIP, 44.3% hard-hit, 41.3% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 66 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds out to RF
- Contreras has already tallied 7 home runs this season and is on pace for 32 big flies in 2026.
- The Padres’ SS has blasted 2 of his home runs over his last two games.
- Bogaerts has registered a .273 xBA this season, which ranks in the 77th percentile.
- Bogaerts has accumulated an 18.9% home run-to-fly ball rate, ranking as the highest of his career.
- The Padres’ slugger has also produced a 27.6% squared-up rate this season, ranking in the 72nd percentile.
- Liberatore has surrendered 8 home runs, which averages out to a 2.00 HR/9 and a career-high 16.0% HR/FB rate.
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Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras have advantageous pitching matchups in Thursday’s action, while Xander Bogaerts will look to continue his hot start. Who will go yard on Thursday?
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