Thursday’s MLB action brings an abbreviated slate with 11 matchups. The day begins with the Rockies vs. Pirates at 12:35 p.m. ET, and the NL West will wrap up Thursday with the Giants vs. Dodgers scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET.
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate. Following a hot start, Brewers OF Jackson Chourio is drawing attention among popular HR picks to smash his first big fly of the season.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Thursday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Thursday, May 14, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Thursday, May 14
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Brewers OF Jackson Chourio
- Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber
- White Sox 1B Munetaka Murakami
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Braves 1B Matt Olson
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
- Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.
- Nationals OF James Wood
- Dodgers 3B Max Muncy
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Brewers OF Jackson Chourio
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers – 1:40 p.m. ET
Padres Starting Pitcher: Griffin Canning (2 GS, 0-1, 3.20 xFIP, 37.5% hard-hit, 29.2% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Miller Park.
- Jackson Chourio has quickly found his footing over his first seven games of the 2026 season, touting a .333/.394/.433 slash line.
- According to Baseball Savant, the 22-year-old outfielder carries an absurd .618 xSLG that suggests positive regression for driving extra-base hits.
- Chourio is batting .391 against right-handed hitters compared to .143 when facing southpaws.
- He’s in luck, as Padres SP Griffin Canning is a righty who allowed 6 earned runs in his last start.
- Canning has only two starts under his belt while allowing 0.96 HR/9 and a 14.3% home run-to-fly ball rate. When he reached at least 20 starts in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Canning finished with alarming 1.56 and 1.63 HR/9s.
- The right-handed hurler’s most-used pitches are a changeup (37.8%) and a four-seam fastball (28.8%) this season, and Chourio carries .314 and .262 career batting averages against the pitches.
Add Jackson Chourio to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics – 3:05 p.m. ET
Athletics Starting Pitcher: Jacob Lopez (7 GS, 3-2, 5.95 xFIP, 27.8% hard-hit, 52.6% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 80 degrees, clear skies, and 3 mph winds out to RF
- According to Ballpark Pal, the Cardinals vs. the Athletics features the highest home run factor (+21%) today, combining weather and ballpark factors.
- That’s good news for Jordan Walker, who boasts a .551 xSLG (95th percentile), a 95.0 average exit velocity (99th percentile), an 18.3% barrel rate (95th percentile), and a 53.8% hard-hit rate (96th percentile).
- Adding to his matchup, Athletics SP Jacob Lopez has a 5.95 xFIP while surrendering a 2.04 HR/9 and a 52.6% flyball rate — which are far above 1.06 and 38.5% league averages.
- Lopez has ceded 2 HRs in back-to-back starts.
- Winds blowing to right field do not favor the right-handed hitter, but Walker may benefit from Sutter Health Park, which Baseball Savant’s Park Factors credited with the sixth-most home runs in 2025.
Add Jordan Walker to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr.
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox – 7:40 p.m. ET
White Sox Starting Pitcher: Anthony Kay (6 GS, 2-1, 5.21 xFIP, 35.3% hard-hit, 36.0% FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 58 degrees, clear skies, and 6 mph winds toward home plate
- Bobby Witt Jr. has 7 big flies on the season, and 4 have come over his last six games.
- Baseball Savant credits Witt with plenty of impressive slugging, from his .525 xSLG (91st percentile) to his 51.8% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile).
- This is finally translating to long balls for the MVP candidate, as Witt has the second-shortest payout to win AL MVP (4x), per PrizePicks Team Picks.
- His hot streak could be further elevated by White Sox SP Anthony Kay, who’s struggled by allowing 1.54 HR/9.
- Furthermore, the left-handed pitcher gives up an 11.4% barrel rate (16th percentile) and a 44.0% hard-hit rate (25th percentile).
- Witt doesn’t slow down against southpaws, batting .324 compared to .301 when facing righties.
Add Bobby Witt Jr. to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Following an impressive start to his 2026 campaign, will Jackson Chourio finally go yard? Bobby Witt Jr. looks to add to his MVP resume with another home run.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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