Friday, June 19, features two primetime matchups on Apple TV, beginning with the Cardinals vs. Royals at 8:15 p.m. ET, followed by the Twins vs. Diamondbacks at 9:45 p.m. ET. Today’s 14-game MLB slate features plenty of opportunities to target sluggers. Who stands out for home run picks today?
PrizePicks offers daily home run projections for your MLB picks, and some hitters have been circled as the most popular home run picks among users on today’s slate.
Below, we’ll break down the most-picked MLB home run predictions for Friday, including each player’s matchup, recent production, and what makes them a popular home run pick today.
Make your MLB home run picks for Friday, June 19, on PrizePicks now.
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Top Home Run Picks Today – Friday, June 19
Hitting a home run is laced with one of the highest degrees of difficulty across sports. And that's what makes going yard so difficult to project on a nightly basis.
How hard is each player hitting the ball? Are they hitting fly balls? Who is pitching on the mound? What direction is the wind flying? That’s just the icing on the cake for breaking down home run projections.
Due to the difficulty of going yard, home run predictions are demons on PrizePicks, which come with a higher payout than standard. Additionally, you can only choose "More" on HR projections, which are set at 0.5.
Here are the most popular home run picks for today on PrizePicks as of writing.
- Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
- Yankees 1B Ben Rice
- Twins OF Byron Buxton
- White Sox SS Colson Montgomery
- Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz
- Rockies C Hunter Goodman
- Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani
- Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe
- Brewers OF Jackson Chourio
- Cardinals OF Jordan Walker
Below, we’ll break down three matchups for today, including the opposing starting pitcher with advanced stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, capped by a weather report via RotoGrinders.
Astros DH Yordan Alvarez
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros – 8:10 p.m. ET
Guardians Starting Pitcher: Tanner Bibee (15 GS, 2-7, 4.14 xFIP, 38.5% hard-hit, 41.2 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: Weather is not a factor in the domed Minute Maid Park.
- Yordan Alvarez is second in MLB with 24 home runs, but he’s in a drought with five consecutive games without a big fly.
- Tonight features a favorable matchup against Guardians SP Tanner Bibee, who cedes 1.61 HR/9 and a 15.0% home run-to-fly ball rate (HR/FB).
- Cleveland’s hurler gave up 2 long balls in his last start and has now permitted 8 dingers over his previous four outings.
- Baseball Savant also gives Bibee a 10.3% barrel rate allowed (20th percentile) and a 90.6 average exit velocity (14th percentile), and that’s bad news with Alvarez boasting a mind-boggling Savant page with a .728 xSLG (100th percentile), 94.5 average exit velocity (98th percentile), and 18.7% barrel rate (98th percentile).
- Yordan gets his share of lift, proven by a 47.1% fly ball rate that’s above the 39.0% league average.
- The right-handed pitcher’s most-used pitches are a cutter (25.4%) and four-seam fastball (23.9%), and Alvarez bats .280 and .348 against the pitches.
Add Yordan Alvarez to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies – 8:40 p.m. ET
Rockies Starting Pitcher: Kyle Freeland (12 GS, 1-7, 4.53 xFIP, 47.8% hard-hit, 38.6 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 84 degrees, clear skies, and 8 mph winds toward third base
- Coors Field and home runs go together like peanut butter and jelly, and Ballpark Pal giving it the second-highest home run factor today (+28%) — which combines weather and ballpark factors.
- Furthermore, Rockies SP Kyle Freeland has given up an alarming 2.15 HR/9, paired with a 47.8% hard-hit rate that’s well above the 33.8% league average.
- Freeland’s Baseball Savant page brings even more concerns, including a 91.0 average exit velocity (seventh percentile) and 9.1% barrel rate allowed (30th percentile).
- Since May, the southpaw has permitted 12 HRs over eight starts.
- Meanwhile, Brandon Lowe has 18 big flies on the season and has hit 3 out of the park in his previous seven appearances.
- His .474 xSLG (83rd percentile) and 12.0% barrel rate (76th percentile) are two more green flags, and Lowe is batting .302 and .444 against Freeland’s most-used pitches — a four-seam fastball (27.2%) and knuckle curve (22.9%).
- However, the second baseman’s left-handed pitching splits lead to some hesitation, as he slugs .333 compared to .585 against righties.
Add Brandon Lowe to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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Athletics 1B Nick Kurtz
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics – 9:40 p.m. ET
Angels Starting Pitcher: Jose Soriano (15 GS, 8-4, 3.71 xFIP, 35.0% hard-hit, 31.1 FB%)
MLB Weather Report: 77 degrees, clear skies, and 11 mph winds out to CF
- Sutter Health Park leads Ballpark Pal’s home run factor (+32%). A perfect storm is brewing for dingers with strong winds pushing to center field on Friday night.
- Nick Kurtz has benefited from calling Sutter Health Park home with 18 taters on the season.
- The first baseman is lighting the league on fire in June with a .300/.432/.733 slash line and 8 home runs over 16 contests.
- Angels SP Jose Soriano’s 2.79 ERA initially looks like a tough matchup. However, his 4.12 xERA and 3.71 xFIP points to negative regression, and that’s arrived with a 4.67 ERA over eight starts since May.
- Soriano has allowed 3 HRs in three June starts, boosting his current 0.93 HR/9.
- Kurtz’s 17.5% barrel rate (97th percentile) could make Soriano pay, who cedes a 8.6% barrel rate (37th percentile).
- The Angels’ hurler leans on a sinker (25.7%) and knuckle curve (25.4%). Kurtz rakes with a .389 batting average vs. sinkers, and he’s logged 4 hits over 5 at-bats (.800) when facing knuckle curves.
Add Nick Kurtz to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Make MLB Home Run Picks on PrizePicks
Targeting favorable ballparks for home runs is usually a sharp move, and favorable matchups for Brandon Lowe and Nick Kurtz further aids that logic for popular HR predictions on PrizePicks.
Don’t wait until the first pitch — make your home run picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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