Game 5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves vs. the San Antonio Spurs is set to tip off at 8:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 12, with the Spurs entering as 9.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks.
The Minnesota Timberwolves staved off a 3-1 deficit and evened the series on Sunday in Minneapolis. They benefited from a C Victor Wembanyama ejection in the first half. Will they steal another game in San Antonio tonight?
Below, we'll break down our Timberwolves vs. Spurs prediction and picks for Tuesday’s NBA Playoff game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Timberwolves vs. Spurs picks on PrizePicks now.
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Tuesday, May 12
The Timberwolves did an admirable job of rallying against the Spurs in Game 4. They found themselves trailing by 4 points heading into the fourth quarter before SG Anthony Edwards went off for 16 points in the final frame, finishing with 36 points.
If the Wolves intend to advance to their third straight conference finals to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, they will have to win at least one more game in San Antonio.
The Spurs almost pulled off a big-time win without Wemby for the majority of the last game. Perhaps one small benefit of the Wemby ejection was the added minutes that were allotted to rookie G Dylan Harper.
The Spurs went small early and often without Wemby, which led to Harper playing 27 minutes and pouring in 24 points, along with 7 rebounds.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spread, Over/Under – Tuesday, May 12
The Spurs enter tonight's game as 9.5-point home favorites against the Timberwolves, returning a 1.23x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Timberwolves vs. Spurs game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -9.5 (1.78x payout)
- Over/Under: 219.5 (1.92x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Timberwolves - 3.84x | Spurs - 1.23x
Play the Timberwolves vs. Spurs spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Timeline
Here is the full Timberwolves vs. Spurs timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.
All-Time: San Antonio Spurs, 104-50
Regular Season: Timberwolves, 2-1
Series: Tied, 2-2
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs
- Game 1: Timberwolves, 104-102
- Game 2: Spurs, 133-95
- Game 3: Spurs, 115-108
- Game 4: Timberwolves, 114-109
- Game 5: Tuesday, May 12, 8 p.m. ET in San Antonio
- Game 6: Friday, May 15, TBD in Minnesota
- Game 7 if necessary
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction on Spread for Game 5 – 5/12/26
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Timberwolves vs. Spurs prediction on the spread for Tuesday, May 12.
Lock in your Timberwolves vs. Spurs prediction on PrizePicks before tip-off.
- San Antonio has been the best team against the spread (ATS) in the NBA with a 52-38-2 (57.8%) record this season.
- The Timberwolves, meanwhile, were below average at covering spreads, posting an ATS record of 42-50-0 (45.7%).
- The Spurs' playoff net rating differential (+12) over the Timberwolves is greater than the spread in today’s game (9.5). This is before factoring in a home-court advantage in what should be a rowdy Frost Bank Center tonight.
- The Wolves' offense has struggled on the road in the postseason. They have an offensive rating of just 104.3 away from home, by far the worst among the remaining playoff teams, per NBA Advanced Stats.
- Their offensive struggles seem likely to compound against a Spurs team that is leading the playoffs with a 102.9 defensive rating.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 5/12/26
Here are the top Timberwolves vs. Spurs picks to target on PrizePicks for Tuesday, May 12. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include Anthony Edwards and Victor Wembanyama.
Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards vs. Spurs Projection: 36.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Ant-Man has looked healthy in his last two games, going for 52 and 44 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA), respectively.
- After playing just 24 and 25 minutes in Games 1 and 2, he rebounded to play 41 and 40 minutes in Games 3 and 4.
- Ant averaged 37.5 PRA in 35 minutes per game during the regular season. If he is going to consistently be playing 40+ minutes, then a 36.5 PRA projection may simply be too low.
- These teams are first (Wolves) and third (Spurs) in pace during the postseason, which suggests this should be a game with many offensive possessions and opportunities to rack up stats.
- The Spurs are giving up 35 3-point attempts per game in the postseason, ranking as the fourth-most among playoff teams. Edwards shot a career-high 39.9% from 3-point range this season.
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Spurs C Victor Wembanyama vs. Timberwolves Projection: 43.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Similar to Edwards, this projection feels too low given Wemby’s expected minutes in competitive playoff games.
- Wemby averaged 39.6 PRA per game in just 29.2 minutes per game in the regular season. He has played 37 and 40 minutes in the two competitive games this series, excluding when he was ejected in Game 4.
- To break that down even further, he averaged 1.35 PRA per minute played in the regular season. If he plays 35 minutes per game in the playoffs, that is equal to 47.46 PRA.
- The Wolves are giving up 48 points in the paint per game in the playoffs, the 12th-most among 16 teams.
- This could spell trouble against the 7-foot-4 Wembanyama, who can score inside with the best.
Add Victor Wembanyama to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Timberwolves vs. Spurs on PrizePicks for Game 5
Here are some in-game angles to target for your Timberwolves vs. Spurs live picks in tonight’s game.
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- The Timberwolves and Spurs rank first and second in pace in the first quarter among all 16 playoff teams.
- The Spurs consistently win when Dylan Harper is efficient. The Spurs rookie is averaging 12.6 points per game on 52.7% from the field and 36.2% from deep in wins. In losses, he is averaging just 9.2 points on 42.5% and 27.0% shooting splits.
- San Antonio leads the postseason in third quarter net rating at a whopping +28.9. The Wolves, on the other hand, sit 11th with a -19.6 net rating in the quarter this postseason.
- The Wolves howl in the fourth, leading all playoff teams in fourth-quarter net rating (+18.4). This is a full 13.5 points ahead of the Spurs' fourth quarter net rating of +4.9.
Make Timberwolves vs. Spurs Picks on PrizePicks
Will the Timberwolves recapture home-court advantage for the second time in this series? Or will the Spurs put themselves one win away from the Western Conference Finals?
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