Game 4 of the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 27, televised by Peacock. The Thunder enter today’s game as heavy 10.5-point favorites on the spread, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Oklahoma City has dominated with an average margin of +20.0 points per game with a 3-0 series lead over Phoenix. Will the Thunder cap the first-round matchup with a sweep on Monday night?
Below, we'll break down our Thunder vs. Suns prediction and picks for Monday’s NBA playoff game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Don’t wait until tip-off — make your Thunder vs. Suns picks on PrizePicks now for today’s NBA game.
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Thunder vs. Suns Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Monday, April 27
Through three games, this has been domination across the board, with the Thunder logging 120.0 points per game (PPG) while giving up only 100.0 PPG. Furthermore, OKC has shot 47.3% from the field (tied for second-highest in playoffs), and the Suns have a 41.6% field goal percentage in this series (tied for third-lowest).
It doesn’t stop there, as the Thunder’s 8.7 turnovers per game is the lowest mark in the playoffs, while Phoenix’s 17.3 turnovers per contest is the fourth-highest mark of the postseason. That’s led to a +6.7 shot-per-game advantage for Oklahoma City in this series.
Backed by higher volume and far superior efficiency, the Thunder have rolled thus far. However, OKC G Jalen Williams is still out and week-to-week with a hamstring strain. The Thunder managed to defeat the Suns by 12 points without Williams in the lineup in Game 3.
Thunder vs. Suns Spread, Over/Under – Monday, April 27
The Thunder enter Monday’s game as 10.5-point favorites on the road against the Suns, returning a 1.17x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Here are the full payouts for the Thunder vs. Suns game on PrizePicks.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (1.81x payout)
- Over/Under: 214.5 (2x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Thunder - 1.17x | Suns - 4.34x
Play the Thunder vs. Suns spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money — available in 35 states!
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns Timeline
Here is the full Thunder vs. Suns timeline, including the playoff series game-by-game and recent matchup history.
All-Time: Suns, 151-141
Regular Season: Thunder, 3-2
Series: Thunder, 3-0
Thunder vs. Suns First Round Timeline, Schedule for 2026 NBA Playoffs
- Game 1: Thunder 119, Suns 84
- Game 2: Thunder 120, Suns 107
- Game 3: Thunder 121, Suns 109
- Game 4: Monday, April 27, 9:30 p.m. ET in Phoenix
- Games 5-7 are if necessary
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Thunder vs. Suns Prediction on Over/Under for NBA Playoffs First Round
Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Thunder vs. Suns prediction for the over/under on Monday, April 27.
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Oklahoma City’s offense has impressed, but it’s shooting only 32.5% on 3-pointers through three games. The unit’s success has been on the back of 50.0 points in the paint per game (fourth-most in playoffs).
During the regular season, the Suns ranked 16th for shot distribution around the rim allowed, per Dunks & Threes. Plus, opponents shot 55.7% on 2-pointers (20th), and Phoenix’s top rim protector, C Mark Williams, has been ruled out with a foot injury, per the NBA injury report.
Will the Suns find success on offense, though? After shooting only 34.9% in Game 1, Phoenix has upped that to a 44.8% field goal percentage over the last two games.
The Suns recorded 40.6 3-point shots per game in the regular season (fifth), and they’ve totaled at least 39 attempted triples in two of three games in this series. OKC also finished the regular season allowing a 44.0% 3-point shot distribution (25th).
Led by the Thunder’s strong efficiency and 120.0 PPG in the first round, paired with Phoenix’s 3-point attack, there may be plenty of points on Monday night. The over is 6-2 over eight head-to-head matchups this season.
Thunder vs. Suns Player Picks, Stats for PrizePicks – 4/27/26
Here are the top Thunder vs. Suns picks to target on PrizePicks for Monday, April 27. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dillon Brooks.
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Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Suns Projection: 32 Points
- The reigning MVP, and likely the 2026 MVP, has been absurd with 34.7 PPG while shooting 54.1% from the field in this series.
- Since Williams left Game 2 with only 23 minutes played, SGA has racked up 39.5 PPG over the last two games.
- According to FantasyLabs, Gilgeous-Alexander’s +0.9% increase in usage rate is the second-highest mark when Williams is off the court.
- The former first-round pick has feasted at the free throw line by attempting 12.7 shots per game, and the Suns finished the regular season 25th in personal fouls per play.
Add Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
Suns G Dillon Brooks vs. Thunder Projection: 18.5 Points
- During the playoffs, Dillon Brooks is shooting a blistering 42.9% on 3-pointers.
- He’s logged 4.0 made triples and shot 9.3 3-pointers per game in the last three games, elevated from a 34.4% 3-point percentage and 6.6 shots from deep per game in the regular season.
- After OKC allowed 14.3 made treys per matchup (28th) in the regular season, Brooks may continue to get looks tonight.
- Furthermore, his hot shooting has translated to 27.0 PPG in this series, and Brooks comes off back-to-back showings with at least 30 points.
Add Dillon Brooks to your PrizePicks Lineup now.
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NBA Playoffs Live Picks: Thunder vs. Suns on PrizePicks for Game 4
Here are some in-game angles to target for your Thunder vs. Suns live picks in tonight’s game.
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- According to TeamRankings, the Thunder logged 30.6 points per first quarter (third) compared to the Suns’ 28.9 (19th) in the regular season.
- Likely due to carrying the league’s largest average margin at +11.5 points, OKC posted only 27.8 points per fourth quarter (tied for 12th) before the playoffs. However, Phoenix is still behind with only 25.9 points per fourth quarter (29th) in the regular season.
- In the playoffs, the Thunder lead all postseason teams with 32.7 points per first quarter, carrying a comfortable cushion over the Suns’ 25.7 mark in the split.
- Gilgeous-Alexander is always a player to watch in the fourth quarter, as he won the league’s Clutch Player of the Year while topping the Association with 175 points in clutch times during the regular season.
Make Thunder vs. Suns Picks on PrizePicks
As heavy favorites, will the Thunder close out this first-round series on Monday night? Quick starts and an efficient offense have given Oklahoma City consistent cushions over the Suns through three games.
Don’t wait until lock — make your Thunder vs. Suns picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.
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