Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Picks for NBA Opening Night – 10/20/26

For NBA Opening Night, the Thunder vs. Spurs is set to tip off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, October 20, with the Spurs 1.5-point favorites for the spread, via PrizePicks.

The rematch of last season’s Western Conference Finals is one of three games on the season-opening slate on NBC. The Spurs will look to defend their home court after going 32-8 in San Antonio last season. The Thunder saw some key role players depart during the offseason but still return a deep roster that is capable of winning a championship.

Below, we’ll break down our Thunder vs. Spurs prediction and picks for NBA Opening Night on Tuesday, October 20, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

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Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for NBA Opening Night – Tuesday, October 20

The Spurs enter Tuesday’s game as a 1.5-point home favorite against the Thunder, via PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for the Thunder vs. Spurs game. PrizePicks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Thunder vs. Spurs prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks.

The Spurs return mostly the same group of players that took them to the 2026 NBA Finals. Their one noteworthy addition was signing F Tobias Harris, but he won’t play against the Thunder as he works his way back from a calf injury. Spurs G Dylan Harper will take his place in the starting lineup, joining PG De’Aaron Fox and G Stephon Castle on the floor.

The Thunder made some changes to their depth chart during the offseason, with G/F Luguentz Dort, G/F Aaron Wiggins, and SG Isaiah Joe no longer on the team.

G Cason Wallace, fresh off a five-year, $139 million extension, will move into the starting lineup. G/F Ajay Mitchell and G Jared McCain will also likely take on expanded roles. PF Chet Holmgren dealt with a quadriceps injury during the preseason, but he will play against the Spurs.

Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction on Over/Under for NBA Opening Night – Tuesday, October 20

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Thunder vs. Spurs prediction on the over/under for Tuesday, October 20.

• Per NBA.com, the Spurs ranked third in offensive rating (118.7) last season. The Thunder were seventh (117.6).
• Both teams were efficient from the floor during the previous campaign. The Thunder shot 48.4% from the field, while the Spurs were right behind them at 48.3%. They also both ranked inside the top five in true shooting percentage.
• The Thunder did a good job of taking care of the ball, averaging the second-fewest turnovers per game (12.0) in the league. The Spurs averaged the fifth-fewest turnovers (12.6).
• Oklahoma City and San Antonio both sat inside the top six for assist-to-turnover ratio last year.

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Thunder vs. Spurs Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 10/20/26

Here are top Thunder vs. Spurs picks to target on PrizePicks for Tuesday, October 20. NBA picks for PrizePicks include Thunder PF Chet Holmgren and Thunder F Jalen Williams.

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Thunder PF Chet Holmgren vs. Spurs: 22.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts

• In the Western Conference Finals last year, Holmgren averaged only 10.7 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.0 assists per game. In four regular-season meetings with the Spurs, he averaged 10.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 0.8 assists.
• The former first-round pick was not aggressive vs. San Antonio, averaging 7.3 shot attempts per game in the Western Conference Finals.
• The Spurs allowed the 10th-fewest rebounds per game in the league (52.2) last year.
• With Spurs PF/C Victor Wembanyama protecting the rim, San Antonio allowed the fifth-fewest points in the paint per game (45.1).

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Thunder F Jalen Williams vs. Spurs: 18.5 Points

• Williams averaged just 17.1 points while being limited to 33 games last season due to injuries.
• The Thunder were often cautious with Williams because of his injuries, leaving him to average a career-low 28.0 minutes per game.
• The encouraging stat for the standout forward is his usage rate was 26.2% — which was higher than his career mark of 23.5%.
• Williams shot only 29.9% from behind the arc in 2025-26, but that might have been impacted by his small sample size. Before that, he shot at least 35.6% from deep in each of his first three seasons in the Association.

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Make Thunder vs. Spurs Picks on PrizePicks

The NBA begins the season in grand fashion Tuesday, with one of the highlight matchups being the Spurs hosting the Thunder.

Given that both teams are loaded with scorers, it could be a high-scoring matchup in which Williams thrives. Things might not be easy for Holmgren, though, who has traditionally struggled against Wembanyama.

Don’t wait until tipoff — make your Thunder vs. Spurs picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

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